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Just some additional info:Originally Posted by dawg80
The agency reported that 1,583 of those newly reported cases are attributed to backlogged test with collection dates between May 18 and July 13.
https://www.nola.com/news/coronaviru...a7276e07a.html
It could very well be the case but I would like to get into what is real and what is not. If that is true then it certainly would imply that people and businesses are much more capable of making decisions for what is best for them and their employees than government. It could also be the case that some of the mitigating attempts are not really effective at all and that the virus is just behaving like any other virus. I'm sure there will be plenty of studies to see what has been effective and what has not since it's obvious that viruses are not going away and we may need to deal with this or even worse in the future.
Here in Texas, people are still doing church youth camps. Know of two of them over the past couple of weeks that had significant outbreaks associated with them.
If this is what we have to look forward to with schools, we are in trouble...
Problem is that only some businesses were doing what they thought was right. They were losing business while others continued to behave in ways that put the community at risk. Tragedy of the commons.
People were initially concerned and schools shut down mid-March. Of course, back then, we had only 1:1000 positive cases. Now we are more than 1:100. The risk of contracting the disease when people aren’t being very safe has gone way up today because of how prolific the disease is.
The good news is that your numbers stay up.
The bad news (for you) is that none of these people get very sick, stay sick very long, or die.
Houston is doing a good job treating patients thanks to our world class medical facilities and the benefit of not having our surge at the beginning so that we could learn from others.
We have been using remdesivir for thousands of our sick, and that is known to shorten the stay in hospitals by a third. Other promising therapies are also being tried here.
No one wants the numbers to be up. I certainly don’t want to get this virus, and I don’t want anyone I know to get it either. Even if you recover fairly quickly we still don’t understand any long term impacts from getting this vascular disease.
Unless the virus has mutated (and it certainly could) to a more contagious strain risky behavior (people not being very safe as you say) I don't know how those behaviors could become "more" risky. What I'm trying to understand is how the infection rate that was going down prior to the shut down began to increase during the shut down. I want to know if this is the normal curvature of infection rates from a virus or if we actually had a negative effect (increase in infection) due to people staying indoors and in close quarters even though they were not at the workplace. I'm not really interested in the politics of how the virus has been managed, that doesn't seem relevant to me as we are dealing with an abnormal event. What I want is true cause and effect so that we can maximize how we respond to future events. I think it's going to take quite some time for the data to be analyzed, my fear is that there is so much politics involved that true analysis will be ignored and we will be destine to make the same mistakes.
The uptrend during the shutdown is explained by people complying less - something I directly observed. Week 2 of the shutdown, more than 90% of shoppers were wearing masks at the supermarket by my house. By the end, we were at nearly 50% and families were shopping together again. That tells me people were getting complacent with their personal behaviors, whether that was driven by lockdown fatigue or the politics of masks or both.
The downtrend before the official shutdown correlated to an awakening to what was going on and people beginning to act with more fear of the disease. Schools were shutting down, events were cancelled and people started working from home In significant numbers before the lockdown even officially began.
We know what works. Taiwan handled it well, and most other countries did much better than us. It is all about limiting transmission by (1) isolating those that are sick through testing and tracing and (2) taking measures to slow the potential for community spread (masks, hygiene and social distancing). It really is that simple.
What I mean by riskiness of behavior is just that the odds of getting the disease while engaging in the same behavior goes up when the disease is more prevalent.
July 21
96,583 cases 3,498 deaths
1,527 in hosp 186 on vents
So we were more compliant from February to March? I kinda doubt that. I'm not sure most people were even aware how serious it was going to be. I'm really not sure how much we can rely on the data in this country being accurate let alone from other countries. I'm also curious how this particular disease and the susceptibility of people with underlying conditions might effect this country more than a country like Taiwan with a completely different diet. It's way too early and we don't have nearly enough data to make determinations on how effective mitigating procedures have been.
I know everyone wants to point a finger at once side or the other and say they got it wrong. I don't think that's very productive.
There is risk in all behavior to some degree and we calculate the benefits of engaging in those behaviors every minute of every day. What concerns me most is the effort to use risk (and not just with this virus) as a use of control. Personally I would rather live free with a great risk of dying than to live a long safe life with no freedom at all.
Ordering people to wear masks in public to keep people from dying and destroying business is not an unreasonable restriction. In many cities you have to wear clothes in public and that draws far less freedom rally cries on this forum.
As far as what we knew about the virus - we knew it was leaving a wake of destruction in China, then Italy.
Problem was we had one “news” agency and a loud mouth president declaring it all a hoax. People that don’t know better got mixed messages and that didn’t help. Those of us that don’t trust FoxNews or Trump always understood what was happening and what needed to be done.
Btw, there is already data out there showing mask mandates even without enforcement drove a much higher compliance rate than no mandate at all. There is also a CNBC article today talking about how Germany got the messaging right to control the disease. These might be of interest to you.
Calculating transmission rates from a small data set (such as during March) is also a little problematic because it is influenced much more heavily by individual cases rather than aggregate behaviors. For example, the first person in Texas gets and and gives it to his wife and two kids and that would be an initial Rt of 4. It isn’t until the base is more representative of a community, that the Rt value tells you about the community spread effect.
July 22
99,354 cases 3,558 deaths
1,581 in hosp 188 on vents
61,456 reported as recovered...that's 61.9%
Guess that means there are 37,898 active cases. But truthfully, no one knows what the actual count is of any published stat. The process is wrought with errors, some on purpose, and other factors. Such as the number of unique individuals tested, not the # of tests conducted. And the real death count attributable to the China Virus. It's not 3,558, but no one can be certain what it is.
Just read an article that pointed out that many, many deaths during normal flu epidemics are NOT recorded as flu deaths. Most are accurately chalked up as pneumonia on some such actual cause of death. With HC providers being paid for China Virus treatments and deaths...well, come on man!
Billioux and the rest of OPH are doing very, very good work for Louisiana.
They’re not on another planet, they’re on Bluebonnet. It’s pretty easy to get to.
If you have questions, anyone can go there or call or email. They’re responsive.
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