Serious Conference Realignment Discussion

[inudesu]

Hmmm. Perhaps you are smarter than you look.....

Setting the bar pretty low there.

[LaTechAlum2014]

https://theathletic.com/news/confere.../aLlHui68hjCp/

Well, this is something…?

[LaTechAlum2014]

Looks like UConn, Liberty, and NMSU.

[THEarmada]

Looks like UConn, Liberty, and NMSU.

Poor UMass

[LaTechAlum2014]

Poor UMass

Would make a heck of a lot of sense to add them. Stunned to an extent at the addition of UConn, if this is all true…

[The Historian]

Would make a heck of a lot of sense to add them. Stunned to an extent at the addition of UConn, if this is all true…

Keep in mind, it's football only. They need a home.

[revf]

Keep in mind, it's football only. They need a home.

looks like it’s a move to get to 9 for football.

I guess you add uta and ualr for your other sports and the c-USA limps along.

[jharris]

If UMass is willing, CUSA would be crazy not to grab them. We need any FBS team we could get. Trying to bump up a bunch of FCS teams is terrible; we might as well move down to FCS.

Similarly, if the SunBelt invited us, we would be crazy not to accept. But the good news for those who disagree is that it's clear the SB is not inviting those who left it.

At this juncture, I think Tech's optimum path is for CUSA to somehow re-assemble an 8 team league, short of that we will be independent, short of that we will be FCS. I don't see any other FBS conferences taking us for the next decade, period.

[FriscoDawg]

If UMass is willing, CUSA would be crazy not to grab them. We need any FBS team we could get. Trying to bump up a bunch of FCS teams is terrible; we might as well move down to FCS.

Similarly, if the SunBelt invited us, we would be crazy not to accept. But the good news for those who disagree is that it's clear the SB is not inviting those who left it.

At this juncture, I think Tech's optimum path is for CUSA to somehow re-assemble an 8 team league, short of that we will be independent, short of that we will be FCS. I don't see any other FBS conferences taking us for the next decade, period.

Memphis isn't long for the AAC. And probably Boise State isn't long for the MWC. Those moves probably are done by 2025.

And there will be some trickle down.

[BhadDawg]

I'm terrible at predicting this stuff. I'm not sure it's ever all as logic-based as you'd hope. As skeptical as I am of the message board conspiracies and "mean old Tech hurt too many feelings" schadenfreude, I do think weird personal stuff sometimes plays a role. And I also think there is just way more going on behind the scenes for us plain ole fans to be able to guess well (past the blind squirrel finding the occasional nut level). I'm positive tv is pulling a lot of strings here, for one thing. And you'd hope the tv partners and school presidents also just have access to a lot more information than we do. But if I just had to guess, I'd expect NMSU + a bunch of FCS schools to be invited real soon. We'll limp along for a few years and then another shake up will happen and hopefully Tech moves to something similar to the new AAC or SB.

But even though I can't stand conspiracy theories - here is my galaxy brain (mostly tongue in cheek) hot take/prediction:

If the current G5 schools want to prevent splitting the (tiny) pie more ways, they can do that by making sure that CUSA goes away (by taking a few more/all left-over members). The schools leaving all have a big incentive to support this, they'd love to get out of those exit fees. But why would the MWC or the MAC or the 'Belt want to add more mouths to feed? Why split that tv money (such as it is) even farther? Because of the shared playoff money! That money is split by conference. Fewer conferences splitting the same amount of money = more money to distribute (even if you're dividing it farther within the conference). If they leave the 5 current CUSA teams alone - we just bring up more FCS teams. So then, even if they raid us again in a few years, CUSA carries on and that money is still split 5 ways. If the 'Belt goes to 16 by taking us and FIU, and the MAC takes WKU and MTSU (and if you wanted to really lock things down you could have the MWC take UTEP and NMSU, but I doubt that's necessary) then the path to FBS gets WAAAAAAAY harder and the schools that already made it in have more or less locked out the current FCS teams for a long time (they'd have to come up as a group, and that's going to take like decades, not years - I think the WAC would like to do this eventually).

Now this is tin-foil hat talk. Super unlikely (for a million reasons). But the idea of the other 4 conferences looking around now and going "hmm, if we split up the teams that are left, whether we really want them or not, we could maybe do our collective selves a favor here" is funny to consider.

But even though I can't stand conspiracy theories - here is my galaxy brain (mostly tongue in cheek) hot take/prediction:

Maybe not so far fetched, Sitting here late at night with a full roll of reynolds wrap foil hat on, Contemplating what the evil ESPN empire has in store next. You are talking about this taking years, well throw a couple of wrinkles in it and drastically speed up the time line.

ESPN/AAC/SBC waits a few weeks and just when it looks like there is some cohesion in CUSA and some promising new members coming in. They have AAC come in with the Sunbelt and invite four more, do you think anyone is going to turn down that invite? ESPN offers to sweeten the media contracts for those two conferences in exchange for finishing the job. Conferences are also convinced to allow those four teams into conferences without entrance fees (more enticement for them to leave)and the teams now not having to pay exit fees can also help offset that a lot!

There will be very little FCS left to pull up from for the one remaining member in CUSA, there is no way to offer a media deal, and the NCAA does not want to grant a waiver to wait on the FCS teams to complete transition.

There is one team left in CUSA, now it is just too big a hill to climb!

Yea, it is all unlikely,but we have all seen a lot of unlikely $hit happen over the last 24 months.

Now y'all just give me a little while to get some more foil and thicken this hat up some, I think I feel some more ESPN radio brain wash waves coming in!

[supermel311]

The Separation!

[inudesu]

If UMass is willing, CUSA would be crazy not to grab them. We need any FBS team we could get. Trying to bump up a bunch of FCS teams is terrible; we might as well move down to FCS.

I think there are any number of FCS teams who would be heavily favored over UMass's football team today (even with fewer scholarships). And many of those would be located a lot closer to Ruston. I don't love the idea of FCS teams trying to move up either, but we're not talking about Boise State, we're talking about UMass.

Now, how that's different from UConn? I don't know, they're just as bad.

Liberty is by far the best available on-field product. But I'm shocked that they're in consideration. Not a school I'm crazy about associating with, but I guess we're all in survival mode at this point.

As for your other points, I agree with Frisco that there is decent chance for at least a little more shuffling. No guarantee it would help us, but it's something to hope for. And nobody at this point can be seriously opposed to joining the Sunbelt. Not in this situation.

[inudesu]

But even though I can't stand conspiracy theories - here is my galaxy brain (mostly tongue in cheek) hot take/prediction:

Maybe not so far fetched, Sitting here late at night with a full roll of reynolds wrap foil hat on, Contemplating what the evil ESPN empire has in store next. You are talking about this taking years, well throw a couple of wrinkles in it and drastically speed up the time line.

ESPN/AAC/SBC waits a few weeks and just when it looks like there is some cohesion in CUSA and some promising new members coming in. They have AAC come in with the Sunbelt and invite four more, do you think anyone is going to turn down that invite? ESPN offers to sweeten the media contracts for those two conferences in exchange for finishing the job. Conferences are also convinced to allow those four teams into conferences without entrance fees (more enticement for them to leave)and the teams now not having to pay exit fees can also help offset that a lot!

There will be very little FCS left to pull up from for the one remaining member in CUSA, there is no way to offer a media deal, and the NCAA does not want to grant a waiver to wait on the FCS teams to complete transition.

There is one team left in CUSA, now it is just too big a hill to climb!

Yea, it is all unlikely,but we have all seen a lot of unlikely $hit happen over the last 24 months.

Now y'all just give me a little while to get some more foil and thicken this hat up some, I think I feel some more ESPN radio brain wash waves coming in!

That was the idea. If they're going to finish CUSA off, they better hurry. The news about NMSU/UConn/Liberty makes it seem like the more likely scenario will play out. But it's not too late. For all the AAC presidents reading this (we know you're there), better add Tech and FIU quick (and pressure your buddies in the MAC to grab WKU/MTSU and strong-arm the MWC to rescue UTEP/NMSU while you're at it). Then there is nowhere for a new FCS school to join and we can all keep splitting the crumbs 60ish ways instead of 70ish ways. Think of the savings!

[Bulldog Tom]

Memphis isn't long for the AAC. And probably Boise State isn't long for the MWC. Those moves probably are done by 2025.

And there will be some trickle down.

Where is Memphis and Boise going?

[FriscoDawg]

Where is Memphis and Boise going?

Big XII after Texas and Oklahoma are long gone.