Stock Market- Investing

[dawg80]

Well...

Now that AT&T (T) is no longer the divie darling it's been for decades (called the stock for widows and orphans since it was so dependable), many analysts are piling on. There's a mob mentality that causes some people to join in the "kick 'em when they are down" syndrome.

Last fall I sold (dumped) GE when it spiked to $115/share and I got out with a small profit. Had held GE for 25 years. Now T is going through something similar. The biggest issue for many investors is the "slashing" of the dividend from .52/qtr to .26/qtr. That's a drop from around 8.3% (at today's PPS) to about 4.15%. And current T shareholders will receive 1 share of the new company, Discovery, for every 4 shares of T held. Nothing is "forever." An article I read recently cited a Forbes article from the 1980's recommending "Five stocks to hold forever." It included GE, T and F. All still exist but not exactly setting the investing world on fire. (WMT and ED were the other two).

AT&T should emerge a more solid company, even though they have divested their single-biggest gross revenue maker, they have also restructured their long-term debt. Point is, don't be married to a stock. I will ride the T horse through most of 2022 and see what happens, but I will dump it all if I don't like what I see. T is another stock I have held since the early 1990's. My cost average is low so I can afford to take a hit in the PPS and still come out to the good. Meantime, at 4.15% return T is still in the Top 5 of divie-payers in the S&P 500. The new king at 4.91% is IBM. Oh oh! Big Blue is on the clock as the next iconic company (stock) to hit the skids. I don't own any IBM...which means it is probably safe.

As always do your own DD before you invest and GLTA.

[dawg80]

Any comments on Google (Alphabet) announcing a 20-1 stock split to attract more retail investors? I think it is a very good idea. Yeah, I know, it doesn't add value to the company (the stock) in the short term, just the same market cap divided by 20X more shares. But in the long run if retail investors are actively involved it puts more upward pressure on the PPS, adding value.

I have never understood all these stock market investing gurus throwing out stocks like JNJ, LMT, APL, and so many more with PPS of $160+ as if the average retail investors have $16,000 to buy 100 shares and then capturing a quarterly divie of $100 will really make a lot of difference. If someone has $16,000 to plop down on one stock, chances are they are already a successful investor with a large portfolio and don't need any advice/guidance. Of course, even at 20-1 Google will be $150/share. Helps...some, I guess. There are those advice-givers who will present a BLUE CHIP Divie Payer roster where one can generate $1,000+ per month in income...and then add sheepishly, "of course you will need at least $250K invested."

The real trick, if you think you are a stock market genius, is to find those equities in the below $20-30 range, low to mid caps just starting to gather support with upside growth potential. Show me a portfolio that generates $1,000+ monthly in income, has growth potential, and which the whole thing cost about $30K to buy. That's something I will pay $49 for an annual subscription to!

Happy investing!

[Dowty]

Any comments on Google (Alphabet) announcing a 20-1 stock split to attract more retail investors? I think it is a very good idea. Yeah, I know, it doesn't add value to the company (the stock) in the short term, just the same market cap divided by 20X more shares. But in the long run if retail investors are actively involved it puts more upward pressure on the PPS, adding value.

I have never understood all these stock market investing gurus throwing out stocks like JNJ, LMT, APL, and so many more with PPS of $160+ as if the average retail investors have $16,000 to buy 100 shares and then capturing a quarterly divie of $100 will really make a lot of difference. If someone has $16,000 to plop down on one stock, chances are they are already a successful investor with a large portfolio and don't need any advice/guidance. Of course, even at 20-1 Google will be $150/share. Helps...some, I guess. There are those advice-givers who will present a BLUE CHIP Divie Payer roster where one can generate $1,000+ per month in income...and then add sheepishly, "of course you will need at least $250K invested."

The real trick, if you think you are a stock market genius, is to find those equities in the below $20-30 range, low to mid caps just starting to gather support with upside growth potential. Show me a portfolio that generates $1,000+ monthly in income, has growth potential, and which the whole thing cost about $30K to buy. That's something I will pay $49 for an annual subscription to!

Happy investing!

I don't really see the need for companies to do stock splits in order to generate more buying from average Joe retail investors anymore, given that most major brokerages offer fractional shares. If you've only got $1,000 to invest, you can still buy into Amazon or Google. The only thing it helps the average retail investor do is generate more dividend income, but as you alluded to, it takes a heck of a lot of shares to generate anything meaningful and that kind of dividend income is reserved for people that already have fat accounts.

Been reading a lot lately about the options market. Did some paper trading and decided to dip my real money toes into it last week. Only put about $200 in, but the thrill of it was more than worth it even if I had lost it all. Managed to make about $25 on some Uber calls so even better!

[Guisslapp]

Any comments on Google (Alphabet) announcing a 20-1 stock split to attract more retail investors? I think it is a very good idea. Yeah, I know, it doesn't add value to the company (the stock) in the short term, just the same market cap divided by 20X more shares. But in the long run if retail investors are actively involved it puts more upward pressure on the PPS, adding value.

I have never understood all these stock market investing gurus throwing out stocks like JNJ, LMT, APL, and so many more with PPS of $160+ as if the average retail investors have $16,000 to buy 100 shares and then capturing a quarterly divie of $100 will really make a lot of difference. If someone has $16,000 to plop down on one stock, chances are they are already a successful investor with a large portfolio and don't need any advice/guidance. Of course, even at 20-1 Google will be $150/share. Helps...some, I guess. There are those advice-givers who will present a BLUE CHIP Divie Payer roster where one can generate $1,000+ per month in income...and then add sheepishly, "of course you will need at least $250K invested."

The real trick, if you think you are a stock market genius, is to find those equities in the below $20-30 range, low to mid caps just starting to gather support with upside growth potential. Show me a portfolio that generates $1,000+ monthly in income, has growth potential, and which the whole thing cost about $30K to buy. That's something I will pay $49 for an annual subscription to!

Happy investing!

Alphabet is an awesome collection of businesses led by a great management team. Unlike AT&T, they do very good in the M&A space generating lots of value for its shareholders.

Full disclosure, GOOGL is my third largest position behind NVDA and a certain energy stock.

The stock split makes Alphabet a possible inclusion into the Dow index, which I don’t understand why people care about. For me, the split makes it easier to sell covered calls on GOOGL, which I don’t plan on doing.

I don’t trade these core positions, and only consider adding when there are major selloffs. Would only sell if something major changes with the businesses.

Still expecting another leg down in the indexes (lower than last weeks low) as the market digests the tighter liquidity conditions. Fun buying opportunities in companies with ridiculous CAGRs, now buyable at multiples lower than per-pandemic (in many cases).

[dawg80]

I don't really see the need for companies to do stock splits in order to generate more buying from average Joe retail investors anymore, given that most major brokerages offer fractional shares. If you've only got $1,000 to invest, you can still buy into Amazon or Google. The only thing it helps the average retail investor do is generate more dividend income, but as you alluded to, it takes a heck of a lot of shares to generate anything meaningful and that kind of dividend income is reserved for people that already have fat accounts.

Been reading a lot lately about the options market. Did some paper trading and decided to dip my real money toes into it last week. Only put about $200 in, but the thrill of it was more than worth it even if I had lost it all. Managed to make about $25 on some Uber calls so even better!

When I was with my old brick & mortar traditional broker, A.G Edwards, which got bought out by Wells Fargo, I think, there was a new broker/agent/advisor, whatever the title was, who was big into options and wanted all of their clients to try it. She convinced me to try a little, it was around $200 as I recall, and I ended losing a good portion of it. That cured me of options trading. I have read about it, have watched videos on it, and have considered trying again, but "puts" and "pulls", no that ain't right, "calls" I think it is, is all a bit confusing to me.

Tim Sykes is a day trading guru and I did investigate his services....until I saw the $6,000 price tag plus additional annual fees. Ah, no thanks. I still get emails from his company trying to entice me back, and they do provide some information and hints of hot tips too! But none of them have been particularly interesting to me.

And as Goosey says, there is more down slide to come to the market. At least I think so, as do so-called pundits and experts. Yet! if you watch CNBC with their parade of guests, and of course good ole Jim Cramer, it's still Buy! Buy! Buy! And admittedly, I have been nibbling on dips adding small amounts to my long-term holdings. Mostly I am keeping my powder dry. Sitting on a ton of cash...way too much cash, most of it wasting away in money markets paying next to nothing interest %. And that is getting worse as I am divesting property, real estate, and accumulating even more cash, in droves! Instead of nibbling, might need to start gulping some.

And what "certain energy stock" Goosey? You didn't provide a name.

[Dowty]

When I was with my old brick & mortar traditional broker, A.G Edwards, which got bought out by Wells Fargo, I think, there was a new broker/agent/advisor, whatever the title was, who was big into options and wanted all of their clients to try it. She convinced me to try a little, it was around $200 as I recall, and I ended losing a good portion of it. That cured me of options trading. I have read about it, have watched videos on it, and have considered trying again, but "puts" and "pulls", no that ain't right, "calls" I think it is, is all a bit confusing to me.

Tim Sykes is a day trading guru and I did investigate his services....until I saw the $6,000 price tag plus additional annual fees. Ah, no thanks. I still get emails from his company trying to entice me back, and they do provide some information and hints of hot tips too! But none of them have been particularly interesting to me.

And as Goosey says, there is more down slide to come to the market. At least I think so, as do so-called pundits and experts. Yet! if you watch CNBC with their parade of guests, and of course good ole Jim Cramer, it's still Buy! Buy! Buy! And admittedly, I have been nibbling on dips adding small amounts to my long-term holdings. Mostly I am keeping my powder dry. Sitting on a ton of cash...way too much cash, most of it wasting away in money markets paying next to nothing interest %. And that is getting worse as I am divesting property, real estate, and accumulating even more cash, in droves! Instead of nibbling, might need to start gulping some.

And what "certain energy stock" Goosey? You didn't provide a name.

I've looked at Sykes a little, and he has generated a lot of success, but his services are too rich for my blood. I've been following a service lately called Unusual Whales, which tracks options flow and provides a ton of useful data and alerts. They also provide some of it for free via Twitter. They have some paid services that aren't very expensive relatively speaking, but I'm trying to learn more on my own before throwing money at someone.

[dawg80]

So, the unexpectedly good January job numbers is a concern for the market and will dull futures. The market makes for strange bedfellows.

One would think that good employment numbers would point to a robust economy and the stock market will respond in a positive way. And certain sectors, like retail, should realize a boost, and maybe the auto industry, and I guess travel/hospitality too. BUT! the beast in the room is inflation and the solution for that is The Fed, egad! Now some pundits are saying SIX rate hikes in 2022. Come on, man! And that scares the market.

It's a see-saw, when one side goes up, the other side has to go down.

[dawg80]

Article on Energy & Capital, a daily online investing service, calls Musk's Tesla a Ponzi scheme. Whoa! The writer is a Jason Williams. He makes a few valid points, but I think calling it a Ponzi scheme is a stretch. Tesla is like a lot of other companies trying to change a sector of the economy, in this case, a major sector: automotive/transportation, they have to live on investment dollars as they go through R&D, marketing, hoping to eventually capture a big enough slice of the market that they can generate real free cash flow. Doubtful Tesla will ever reach that level. Although, I have to mention, they did generate some cash flow in the most recent TTM. Isn't a lot and the company is sitting on mega-tons of long-term debt, but it is a small flicker of light in an otherwise deep black hole.

I like Elon Musk and enjoy reading about his exploits. But truthfully, he is living off of investors' dollars and probably that is all he'll ever do. His best bet will be to create demand for EVs that is truly mainstream and then either sell out to a real car company or merge with them in some capacity. This would actually be keeping with historic precedent since often inventors/innovators lack the capacity to actually manage a company to deliver products to the market. The creative types get bored with the day-to-day grind of building/managing a business.

But, a Ponzi scheme? Nah!

[Guisslapp]

Article on Energy & Capital, a daily online investing service, calls Musk's Tesla a Ponzi scheme. Whoa! The writer is a Jason Williams. He makes a few valid points, but I think calling it a Ponzi scheme is a stretch. Tesla is like a lot of other companies trying to change a sector of the economy, in this case, a major sector: automotive/transportation, they have to live on investment dollars as they go through R&D, marketing, hoping to eventually capture a big enough slice of the market that they can generate real free cash flow. Doubtful Tesla will ever reach that level. Although, I have to mention, they did generate some cash flow in the most recent TTM. Isn't a lot and the company is sitting on mega-tons of long-term debt, but it is a small flicker of light in an otherwise deep black hole.

I like Elon Musk and enjoy reading about his exploits. But truthfully, he is living off of investors' dollars and probably that is all he'll ever do. His best bet will be to create demand for EVs that is truly mainstream and then either sell out to a real car company or merge with them in some capacity. This would actually be keeping with historic precedent since often inventors/innovators lack the capacity to actually manage a company to deliver products to the market. The creative types get bored with the day-to-day grind of building/managing a business.

But, a Ponzi scheme? Nah!

Lol. They have less than 1/10 the debt of Ford. And 3 times the margin on each vehicle. Plus a services revenue stream they can turn on at some point that will have margins at least 3 times what their margin is on product.

They are also able to start up new factories way faster than the incumbents, which is helping them scale.

They have a big head start on technology for the segment of the market that is growing the fastest.

[dawg80]

Which is why Musk is dumping all…a lot…of his Tesla stock. Makes sense since he believes in the future of his company. Insider trading speaks volumes about the real status of a company. When those in the know dump shares it means they have confidence in its future.

Oh wait…that can’t be right ��

[Guisslapp]

Which is why Musk is dumping all…a lot…of his Tesla stock. Makes sense since he believes in the future of his company. Insider trading speaks volumes about the real status of a company. When those in the know dump shares it means they have confidence in its future.

Oh wait…that can’t be right ��

Where else was he going to get the 10B he needed to pay his tax bill?

[Guisslapp]

And as goofy as that Cybertruck is, they have 1.25 million preorders for it. Ford only has 200k pre-orders for the Lightning so far. Crazy.

[dawg80]

And as goofy as that Cybertruck is, they have 1.25 million preorders for it. Ford only has 200k pre-orders for the Lightning so far. Crazy.

Your entire argument is rooted in Tesla vs. Ford. Ford has struggled big time for years. Their stock was trading for $4 not too long ago and has pulled back to $17 after a recent high of $26. So, that's it, Tesla is great because they are out-performing Ford? That's like saying some college football team is great because they are better than ULM...wow! high hurdle to get over, eh!

But, looking at the financials, lowly Ford had $135 billion in revenue vs. $48 billion for Tesla, and Ford's TTM EBIT is $10.3 billion vs. Tesla's $4.8 billion. So, gawd-awful, lousy, horrible last place Ford is still besting Tesla. Wonder how Tesla compares to GM, Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, oh! and Mercedes, BMW, etc....

Nah, let's just focus on Tesla vs. Ford, LOL!

Obviously, Goosey, you are invested in Tesla stock and in the whole Tesla revolution. That's fine. Frankly, I don't care, and have no problem whatsoever with Tesla (Elon Musk) being successful. I like Musk. Have no issues with him, his companies, his vision, any of it. I don't hold any stock in his firms and probably never will. But then there are literally hundreds and hundreds of stocks I don't own.

Now, just watched a piece on Youtube of some investing firm gurus, one called Loup, and they are all singing the praises of Tesla as a company and as a stock. They LOVE Tesla stock! Okay, fine.

BUT! this whole Tesla/Elon Musk discussion is nothing but a tangent. The original point was, and still is, Warren Buffet's approach to investing makes the most sense and is something anyone can follow. Buffet, and his followers, may not "change the world" but they will get rich and enjoy the fruits of sensible investing.

Carry on Goosey and happy investing!

[DawgyNWindow]

And as goofy as that Cybertruck is, they have 1.25 million preorders for it. Ford only has 200k pre-orders for the Lightning so far. Crazy.

Oh come on!

Tesla introduced their truck in 2019 and STILL has not started production on it.

Ford introduced their truck in May of last year and have STOPPED taking pre-orders. They are planning to start production this year.

Crazy.

[dawg80]

I am surprised Goosey likes Elon Musk. Musk is a sensible, anti-commie type.

From an article:

The founder, CEO, and chief engineer at SpaceX, Elon Musk, recently tweeted a rather pertinent message to his 62 million followers: “If you scare people enough, they will demand removal of freedom. This is the path to tyranny.”
He’s right. It is. Joseph Stalin knew this better than most. One day, in front of his closest advisers, Stalin supposedly picked up a live rooster, plucked it, and placed it back down on the ground. The featherless bird, terrified and covered in blood, ran away. However, in this particular room, the door was closed. The rooster couldn’t escape. Left with no option, it returned to Stalin. Freezing cold, it rubbed itself between the dictator’s legs for warmth. Stalin looked at his advisers, smiled, and said: “Now, you see, people are like chickens. Pluck them, and then let them go.” Soon enough they’ll come back; after that, you “control them.”