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Should be in for sure if Tech gets to Sunday.Originally Posted by dawg80
Being eliminated in the second pool championship game on Saturday (2-2 or 3-2 record) might be enough if bid-stealing doesn't get out of hand.
Getting eliminated any earlier than a second game Saturday could make things very iffy.
One thing is for certain. If any school on the bubble goes 0-2 their chances of making the field are almost none.
The Committee has made that clear in the past.
This -
''Don't be a bad dagh..."
Except probably an ACC or SEC school. Those rigid standards don’t necessarily apply to them.
I know it’s apples to oranges, baseball to softball, but LSU softball was one and done in the SEC tournament then was 2 and through in their regional meanwhile the Techsters who had a better seasonal record, won the conference outright and showed better in the CUSA tournament never got a chance.
Preferential treatment is a real thing and don’t think for a second that it isn’t.
Yes they do - if they are a bubble team and go "2 and que" they are left out -
Unlike the basketball at-large selections, baseball is usually pretty open and predictable
''Don't be a bad dagh..."
It does apply to them.
For schools truly on the bubble - RPIs in the mid 30s through the mid 50s - going 0-2 gets you left home.
No matter who you are.
To give an example of going 0-2 and not getting in...
In 2019 the bubble completely fell apart. A host of bubble teams lost their way out of the tournament.
All Texas State and Tech needed to do was win one game in their respective conference tournaments and we were in.
Tech had an RPI in the 40s going into the CUSA tournament with 34 wins and the anchor of the tornado aftermath hanging around us. The Committee was aware of it and was prepared to put us into the field if we could do anything at all in the tournament. We went 2 and que. The little shortstop from Marshall made the incredible play in extra innings and denied us a win. We also lost a heartbreaker to Rice. That ended our season.
Texas State was the Belt's regular season champion. The were 36-18 going into the Belt tourney with an RPI in the upper 30s. They lost to Coastal Carolina and ULM. 2 and que. And their season was over.
Both Tech and Texas State had really good metrics against other bubble teams. It didn't matter at that point.
That led to two schools - TCU and Duke - as surprising adds to the Tournament. The fact is, there was no one else out there.
...and there weren’t any ACC or SEC schools with lesser records and comparable RPIs that got in? You can’t seriously believe that when it comes to a coin toss type moment that the bigger conferences and more recognizable school don’t get a special wink and nod.
I don’t even think the RPI is entirely fair. Even if it is kind of sort of, the bigger conferences fix their RPIs with early season heavy home schedules. Playing 20 of their first 23 games at home is a pretty sure bet to get a big head start on a winning record, a national ranking and a higher RPI. After that all they have to do is not have a major collapse. The system may be the best there is, but it’s not the best it could be. It just benefits the big boys the best while maybe giving everyone else a few crumbs here and there.
For Tech's situation this week, I agree that 2-and-done would almost certainly end this season without a second thought.
1-2 might not be enough unless there are no more than a couple of stolen bids or the bubble totally collapses like 2019.
2-2 or 3-2 but not getting to Sunday just might be enough unless almost every possible bid that could be stolen is stolen.
Getting to Sunday should be more than enough even without winning it all.
Another factor that needs to be considered is the possible weather Wednesday and Thursday. This tournament could be reduced to single elimination in the worst-case weather scenarios. If Tech gets to play Wednesday and loses, there might not be a second chance.
RPI for baseball is much better than the NET is for basketball.
Update on the potential bid-stealing conferences.
AAC--East Carolina (18 RPI) won its opener yesterday and has a winner's bracket game vs Cincinnati tomorrow.
ASun--Liberty (39 RPI) has won its first two round-robin games and has clinched a semifinal bid. Kennesaw State (53 RPI) has lost its two round-robin games and must win tomorrow to have any chance of staying alive.
Big East--Tournament starts Thursday. Connecticut (50 RPI) is on the edge.
Big Ten--Tournament start pushed back to Thursday. Maryland (3 RPI) and Rutgers (43 RPI).
Big West--UCSB (38 RPI) has clinched the NCAA bid. No conference tournament.
MVC--Dallas Baptist (12 RPI) plays its first game Thursday.
Southern--Wofford (30 RPI) plays its first game Thursday.
WCC--Gonzaga (26 RPI) plays its first game Thursday.
WAC--Grand Canyon (44 RPI) is playing its first game tonight.
Last edited by FriscoDawg; 05-26-2022 at 12:55 PM.
Thanks for taking the effort to do this list. I want some of these teams to steal some bids and keep Ole Miss out all together. I also want C-USA to get 4 teams in.
The teams listed would be getting automatic bids. Too many teams in this group losing would open the door for bid-stealers. Too many of those and C-USA might not get 3 bids.
Grand Canyon did win late last night.
Updated that the Big West does not have a tournament and UCSB has clinched first place.
Middle Tennessee is playing its way out. 3 bids max for C-USA.
And add Alabama to the bid-stealers list.
Last edited by FriscoDawg; 05-26-2022 at 01:28 PM.
I didn't think MTSU was even on the bubble.
7) Southern Miss in
45, 46, 47) Tech, ODU, UTSA
If Tech/ODU/UTSA each get 2 wins in the tourney, then I think they should slide in to NCAAs.
D1 previously had all 4 in, but UTSA slid out today (they didn't play and Bama slid in).
I think y'all are in if you win 1 more game. Regardless of what happens around the country.
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