Russia

[dawg80]

Another Putin offensive has been crushed and more pathetic drafted Russian saps, er, soldiers paid for the stupidity with their lives. For over a month the Putin propagandists talked up the pending offensive in the direction of a key crossroads, a town named K... whatever, the names all look/sound the same. Ukrainian officials gave the threat more credit than it deserved and took the steps of evacuating the town and surrounding villages/farms, not wanting civilian casualties in the battle. The offensive was completely smashed, and ridiculously easily and quickly. The Russians never got within 5 miles of the town of K...but were slaughtered in the open fields and roads. In one drone video three T-90M tanks, supposedly Putin's best tank, were knocked out in a matter of 30 seconds. The Ukrans were expecting the attack to come from exactly where it did and had already zeroed in their artillery. Four APCs following the tanks were also destroyed with some of the soldiers in them managing to escape; most did not. Then like in other cases hundreds of Russian soldiers were seen running for their lives back across the open fields with Ukran artillery being "walked" in pursuit killing/wounding a good number of them.

Near Bakhmut the Azov Brigade sent an elite Russian paratrooper unit scurrying for their lives, although these troopers did so in a more professional/organized manner. But retreat, they did! The Russians are losing every single encounter, especially when the Putinites dare to come out from behind their defensive works and engage in open combat. The Russians still have the potential of air superiority but they are so incompetent! Yesterday a Russian fighter-bomber, a SU-34, made a bombing run, missed the target then suddenly did a nosedive straight into the ground, killing the two-man crew. It was not shot down but rather it was pilot error as he lost control of the plane. Buffoons!

Things are looking bad for all you Putin supporters. Looks like your guy is getting his ass kicked. Well, not his pathetic ass, but those of the unfortunate souls pressed into military service by Putin's Gestapo.

[dawg80]

Necessity is the mother of invention! Well, more kudos to the Ukrainians for their latest technological advance. Seems that landmines give off a heat signal shortly after the sun sets that can be detected by thermal imaging cameras, the kind the Ukrans have mounted to their drones. Now they are mapping the Russian minefields such that their engineers can clear them and/or their advancing units simply avoid them. Well done indeed!

And more Russkie incompetence! It's getting so bad it's comical, like the Keystone Cops. The commander of the Russian flight school that trains pilots crashed his jet into the frickin' control tower at the school's airbase. You can't make this stuff up! Guess he was trying to pull a Maverick move and do a flyby. "Negative ghost rider the pattern is...oh shit!" And the flight school's deputy commander was in the tower and was killed in the crash.

Russians in full retreat from the town of Robotyne too. Looks like the Russian defenses are starting to crack. The Ukran strategy is plain to see. They have picked out the weak points in the Russian defenses and are concentrating attacks at those points. And the crossing of the Dniper River in the Kherson region has opened up another opportunity. It is very possible the Ukrans can flank and get behind the extensive defensive works, the Putinites have spent a year building, rendering them irrelevant. In fact, trapping the Russians in their trenches for easy destruction.

[dawg80]

German container ship departed Odesa testing whether the Russians will attempt to stop it, board it, and perhaps seize its cargo. Putin's pirates have started stopping civilian ships, flying the flags of various nations. No incidents yet involving casualties, but things are getting intense. The cargo on this German ship belongs to a Hong Kong company. i.e. the Chicoms. Since Putin cancelled the grain deal his pirates on the Black Sea have started intercepting grain shipments and also helping themselves to other cargo. The Ukrans announced they might assign their sea drones to escort vessels coming and going from Odesa.

Why is the rest of the world tolerating this? The world sure blasted the Somalian pirates into oblivion. Oh yeah...the poor Somalians don't have nukes.

[ChipDog]

d-80, I can’t stand to see you all alone on this thread, so I’ll jump in.

You seem to have access to some up-to-date info. I tried to keep up with the “war” in the beginning, but accurate information seemed hard to find. Where are you getting your best information?

[Blue Dawg]

For blow by blow from a more Russian perspective, I recommend:

https://twitter.com/witte_sergei (his blogposts are also very good on a wide variety of topics)
https://twitter.com/RWApodcast
https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps

Pretty fair, what I particularly like is 1) the level of detail, 2) the lack of bizarre Western propaganda with hilariously wild claims, and 3) *mostly* no dehumanization of the Ukrainian side like you see from so many warhawks of the Russians.

Lukashenko granted a long-awaited interview to a Ukrainian journalist today. He's a fascinating character.

LUKASHENKO to Ukrainian reporter: "Your counteroffensive cost 45,000 people in dead and maimed. 45,000!.. Your losses are 1 to 8 at the frontline. And [Russia has] 250,000 people in reserve with cutting-edge hardware. You will be crushed... and the Poles rub their hands in glee. Pushed by the Americans, they will cut off the western regions... You have to take your head into your hands and act on the basis of reality. Act in the interests of this huge and beautiful territory."

[dawg80]

d-80, I can’t stand to see you all alone on this thread, so I’ll jump in.

You seem to have access to some up-to-date info. I tried to keep up with the “war” in the beginning, but accurate information seemed hard to find. Where are you getting your best information?

I don't give any of the pro-Putin sources much of a second look. Even when they accidently present some facts it's always excused with extreme spin followed by, "our glorious forces will soon be marching into Berlin, Paris, and even London soon!" Okay...not to be guilty of the crap they put out, I admit I greatly exaggerated that. But, they do spin everything.

One of my favorite YouTubers is a loyal Ukrainian fellow named Denys Davyoz. His name has been "westernized" and some other pundits using his material or quoting him refer to him as "Dennis Davidof," so he appears under several names. He is funny. I know, how can anyone be humorous reporting on a war, but he is. Not that he's trying to be. His mastery of English, while pretty darn good, still shows signs of an eastern European influence. His use of "kaboom" and "kaput" as legit descriptive terms is particularly funny.

I researched Mr. Davyoz and learned he served in the Ukrainian army and air force and is (or was until recently) a commercial airline pilot. He is obviously strongly biased toward the Ukrainian side (of course) but he reports ALL the news, even the bad news, and says "sorry, this happened and I have to report it."

Warthog is another pro-Ukrainian site, but they tend to report only good news and leave out any setbacks. They don't lie (like the Putinites do) but they are guilty of omissions.

Other pro-Ukrainian YouTube channels, like Omni (I think that's its name) are totally useless. It was this channel that falsely reported the USS Gerald Ford entered the Black Sea and proceeded to sink several Russian warships. Yeah...that blatant. Can't even say they are entertaining.

There is also a former US Special Ops soldier with a YouTube channel I follow. He is not on the cutting edge of news, but comments on events a day or two later. But I find his analysis to be accurate and interesting.

Finally, I still have connections to US Military sources who I can discuss events with, as long as they are not classified.

[dawg80]

Biden Administration okays Denmark and The Netherlands to send F-16s to Ukraine. Ukran pilots have been training in F-16s at a British base, so I guess they are ready for the real thing now. The US sold F-16s, as well as other technologically advanced equipment, to various countries with a stipulation that the US has to approve those nations sharing the technology and/or transferring said equipment elsewhere. Now, the Bidenites have lifted the hold, so F-16 Falcons will soon be on their way to Ukraine.

The Falcon is a superior fighter jet, really a fighter-bomber since it serves well in close air support for ground troops. But, while a better plane, it is not invincible so a lot will depend on the skills of the Ukran pilots.

Speaking of superior US equipment, a Bradley Fighting Machine was bulls eyed by a Russian artillery strike. The Ukrans foolishly pushed their luck after successfully silencing Russian machinegun positions, and then driving toward a tree line where they encountered a deep trench. Unable to cross and unable to seek the cover of the trees, the Bradley hesitated in the open, which is a big mistake on a modern battlefield. A Russian drone spotted it and targeted artillery fire onto it. Just as the Bradley reached a road and was trying to flee back toward friendly lines, it got clobbered by incoming shells. The Bradley was so damaged it has been rendered destroyed, out of action. But the entire crew survived. All the Ukran soldiers sustained wounds, but all are expected to survive and probably return to duty. The Ukran officer, after rebuking his men for their stupid "charge" across an open field, proceeded to compliment the Bradley, its tough armor, and the survivability of the crews. All the Russian equivalents, armored "cars" or light fighting vehicles go up like a firecracker when hit by any type of munitions and the crews killed.

Have CNBC on monitoring the stock market, of course, and they broke in with some "news." Report says "US officials" place the casualties for both sides since the war started in February, 2022 as: Ukrainian 70,000 and Russian 500,000+. They did not specify what they mean by "casualties." In a traditional definition that would encompass killed, wounded, captured and missing. So, absent an explanation I have to assume these numbers represent that meaning.

As a historic side note, the figures reported during the American "Civil War" are misleading. After a typical major battle, numbers like Union losses 12,500 Confederate losses 10,700 included soldiers who showed up later. The day after a battle the First Sergeants of each company would call roll, usually just before dawn, in case a movement of the army was to occur that day. Anyone not answering the roll call was listed as a "casualty." If a soldier had been killed or wounded his buddies, his messmates, would tell the 1st Sergeant they confirm his status. But if no one was sure, then the term "missing" was placed by his name. Later that day or even many days later some of those soldiers would show up back in camp. Some of them became separated during the chaotic battle, perhaps cut off by enemy troops, and had to hide until it was safe to travel back toward their army. Others, if close to home, would use the confusion to sneak away to check on their families, and then return days or even weeks later.

The Battle of Gettysburg is reported officially as 28,000 Confederate casualties and 23,000 Union losses. Well over half of those fellows, probably close to 70%, returned to the ranks and may have been a "casualty" again at another battle.

[dawg80]

Great news! Ukrainian forces have reached the outer defenses of the important crossroads city of Tokmak. The Ukrans easily traversed a minefield that the Russians were depending on to secure the northern approach to the town, but during the night, the Ukrans pushed significant units through the minefield. Officials refused to confirm if their use of thermal imaging played a role in identifying the exact location of each mine, but US officials speculate that it did.

Now the Ukrans are facing another tough obstacle, the actual main defenses of the city itself. The Russians have turned Tokmak into a fortress, a redoubt, with defensive lines on all four sides. I am no tactical/strategic expert on such matters...ahem ...but if it were me, I wouldn't waste a single Ukran soldier's life trying to capture this town. Instead, I would isolate it, bypass it, and use the very dry open fields to move my forces further south. Deny resupply to the defenders of Tokmak, starve 'em out. And/or move artillery closer and shell the hell out of it, make it a living nightmare for the Russkies trapped there. NOTE: at the present time the Russkies are not trapped as they still control three sides of the city including the highway south. But, if the Ukrans can cut the southern highway that will effectively trap those defenders.

Anyway, this movement is a big jump from where the battlelines existed just two days ago.

[dawg80]

The Azov Brigade seized another hill south of Bakhmut. Tough fighting, heavier than usual casualties, but no details released yet.

The evil terrorist Putin struck another civilian target in Ukraine, this one killed 7 and injured 100+. Again, an apartment building was targeted, not even close to a military or industrial site. All of you Putinites, and you know who you are, line up behind this thug. Guess you're proud of your guy.

Reports about other Ukran gains along the front, but as usual, they are small, mostly capturing a Russian trench or position. Did see a good explanation of why the Ukrans are actually doing well in their counter-offensive. A pundit/historian reminded all of us that the allies sat bottled up in hedgerow country for months after the D-Day landing. The defenders, like the Germans in France, enjoy an enormous advantage. The Russians have built extensive defensive works and it is tough sledding for the attacking Ukrans. But they are making progress.

[dawg80]

Latest report says Ukraine will receive 62 F-16s in the next few months. That's four squadrons. The first 19 Falcons, coming from Denmark, should be there this week. Will be some additional training for Ukran pilots, then off the real thing.

Ukran drones destroyed 10 Russian boats and killed/wounded 40 Russian soldiers. They were small boats, about 25-30 feet in length, armed with a mounted machinegun and used to move troops and supplies across a river, in this case, the Dniper River.

Russian counter-attack smashed near Kharkiva. Can't understand why the Russkies haven't learned about the dangers of moving vehicles in a column on open roads. Four tanks, 6 APCs and another 8 trucks and other vehicles were obliterated. Casualties are unknown but most of the Russians didn't survive the attack, only about 15-20 were seen, by a tracking drone, walking back up the road they had come. Can't fix stupid...

[dawg80]

A retired US Air Force officer, very familiar with the operation of the F-16 Falcon, has issued some cautionary concerns about the Ukrainians operating the jet. He said at best, with a complete immersion in a F-16 program, i.e. US Air Force personnel on the ground in Ukraine, training and working closely with the Ukrans, it would be 2027 before complete confidence could be achieved with the Ukranian AF being effective with the Falcons. The F-16 is one of the finest fighters in the world and as such is very sophisticated. This is akin to taking a bunch of average drivers and placing them behind the wheel of a powerful race car, with just minimal instruction.

Some pundits are saying the "Griffin" Jet Fighter, which is the Swedish built JAS 39 Gripen, would be a better choice for Ukraine. Very, very capable plane but a whole lot easier to learn how to fly and operate in a combat setting. And actually, President Z approached Sweden last year, before the transfer of F-16s was being seriously considered, but Sweden was not keen on that. They still aren't. The Griffin is a totally Swedish domestic design and build and apparently, they are very guarded about it being transferred to other countries.

BTW, here's a little trivia quiz for ya. There is just one fighter, in all of history, that has a perfect combat record, absolutely 100% victory record. Hint: it is not the F-16 Falcon.

[dawg80]

France is sending the "Scalp" cruise missile to Ukraine. Several were sent last month and used to test their viability in long range attacks. The tests proved effective.

The Ukrainians have developed and are deploying a new "sea drone." This one can be classified as a submarine or a torpedo. Since the boat drones operate on the surface they are subject to defensive measures by the Russians, and there is video of the sea drones being destroyed by Russian naval fire and by attack helicopters. These new ones will travel underwater and only approach the surface when they are at their intended target. Ya gotta love it!

Two nights ago the surface sea drones successfully struck and damaged three Russian ships. One is a Russian navy vessel, thought to be a helicopter carrier/marine assault ship. The other two were not positively identified but the YouTuber speculates they are a Russian military supply ship and the other a civilian cargo ship, perhaps one flying an Egyptian flag but has been leased by a Russian import/export firm. Such ships were known to be the area of the sea drone attacks two days ago.

Putin has ordered the rounding up of all immigrants, especially Muslims, to be forced to join the army. Secret video, shared via banned social media outlets, shows hundreds of young Muslim men being forced into busses and then taken to a training camp. After only two weeks of the most basic of training, these "soldiers" are shipped to the front lines in Ukraine and used as cannon fodder. Apparently, Putin has emptied his prisons from which he sent criminals to join the Wagner Group last year and an estimated 45,000 were killed, and another 50,000+ wounded in the attacks at Bakhmut. So, now he is effectively kidnapping immigrants. Well, hmmm...it's an idea.

The Kerch Bridge was struck again last night. This attack was carried out by small drones seeking to strike trucks using the single lane still open for operation. The bridge was severely damaged two weeks ago and the Russians have laid planks across a massive hole in the road deck allowing traffic to use one lane. Right now, only military and critical supply trucks are being allowed to cross the bridge, no civilian traffic at all, which has ticked off Russian citizens living in Crimea and on the Russian side of the bridge. Early reports say the drones missed intended targets and explosions occurred on the bridge but did no significant damage. But, tell ya what, if you're one of those Russian truck drivers, this will make your cheeks pucker up!

US and British military advisors are encouraging the Ukrans to adopt a change in strategy along the front. Right now the Ukrans are probing along the whole 900-mile front and are presently trying to exploit 4 breakthroughs. Rumors are the US and Brits advise a more concentrated approach, to group a large attack force and strike at one weak point in the Russian defenses. Well...it's a good thing this is all being kept top secret else the Russians might learn of it and take steps to defend against such an attack

[Blue Dawg]

Putin expressed incredulity that the Ukrainian leaders cared so little for their own people that they would send them over and over again into minefields and artillery cauldrons. Biden is determined to shed every last drop of Ukrainian blood.

Someone pointed out that the Russians and Americans faced a similar problem at the start of the war: all of their military experience was against opponents lightyears less advanced than they - the Russians weren't fighting literal Stone Age societies like we did, but the power gap meant they might as well have. Fighting an army with peer weaponry (even if you hold numbers advantage) is totally different. All the American mercenaries coming back over complained that it wasn't fair when the enemy can call an airstrike on you. It's interesting to think that at this point, any Ukrainian front-line commander who's survived thus far is more skilled in modern peer warfare than any American leader.

[dawg80]

LOL! Putin saying leaders cared so little... Holy shit! Putin and those of you who follow him are as stupid as Biden/Harris saying there is no crisis at the border.

And total BS! on any notion that Putin is winning this war. Back in February, 2022 many pundits (and me too) assumed if Putin was stupid enough, evil enough to actually invade Ukraine the Russians would walk over the country in less than a month. Just like Hitler did to Poland in 1939, and I guess France too in 1940. Total and complete victory. Lest some of you with your brains up your azz forgot, the Russians had a massive column of troops WEST of Kyiv. That bears repeating...WEST of Kyiv! The war was over, or so everyone thought. Now 18 months later the Russians are clinging to their defensive works and steadily losing ground daily. And all of this WAY over in the eastern most provinces. Wow, good job Russkies!

Whatever else can be said, one fact shines through, the Ukrainians have gallantly, bravely fought an evil invader, a neighboring country more than 10X its size. One with a supposed mighty military that in February, 2022 was considered one of the top 4 military elites in the world (along with the US, China, and India), but now is a mere shadow of its former self.

As for Ukrainian command, one of my favorite YouTubers, Dennis Davidoff (English version of his name), has often commented that middle and lower level officers in the Ukranian army are mostly incompetent. He says they are old, were trained in the old Soviet system and can't grasp the changes occurring in technology, etc...well, Mr. Davidoff, a former Ukrainian army officer himself, is much closer to this than I am so I have to defer to his opinion. But, the Ukrans are getting results on the battlefield. So, if the Ukran command structure sucks, what's that say about Russkies!?

Whatever faults the Ukrainians may have, they are the good guys in this war. They didn't invade Russia, they didn't start this insanity.

[dawg80]

Prigozhin is dead!

Reports of a plane crash. Good riddance to that pig!

Pundit on CNBC commenting on the breaking news has actually said he is certain this was an assassination, ordered by Putin. I agree. This is Putin's MO.