Russia

[dawg80]

Some of the pro-Putin YouTubers are giddy today and have suddenly started posting again after many months of silence. They point to the developing events at Avdiivka as "proof" of the total collapse of Ukrainian defenses. Really? They said the same thing when it became clear Wagner was going to take Bakhmut. They also point to Tucker Carlson and Senator Rand Paul as voices of "reason" and more proof the US is about to yank the rug out from under poor ole President Z.

Here's my take...as long as the US and NATO continue to aid Ukraine there is no way, not now, not ever! will Putin takeover all of Ukraine. Even if both the US and NATO stop supporting Ukraine the war as it now exists will continue unchanged for a period of time and eventually all Putin can hope to achieve is securing the four eastern provinces. Meanwhile Russia will continue to deteriorate on the world stage, their domestic economy will continue to suffer and decline, and the Russian people will grow more and more frustrated with the current evil regime.

And there is this, which I occasionally ask those anti-Ukraine/pro-Putin folks, like Tucker Carlson, Sean Hannity, Rand Paul, etc...what is your fascination with Putin and why do you support his naked aggression against a neighboring sovereign nation? Would you also be tickled pink if Putin invaded Latvia and Poland?

There is little doubt that if this were the 1930's Carlson, Hannity, Paul et al would all be singing the praises of Adolf Hitler. OMG! the US should never gotten involved in the European war vs. Hitler and if we had just appeased Japan and did nothing as they gobbled up territory they would not have attacked us at Pearl Harbor. You don't think so? Then you don't know your history. Japan practically begged us for years not to get involved in their expansionism in the Pacific region, stating they had no beef with the US and had no desire to go to war with us. But FDR would have none of it and followed policies of staying tough with Japan especially as it would have involved Japan's main goal: oil. Japan was a tiny country with very limited natural resources of its own. To grow/expand they needed access to oil and the only way to get it was to invade and seize Formosa, China, Burma and Indonesia, all had extensive oil resources. The Japs felt they had no choice but to try to convince the US that war with them would be futile and very costly...it was costly, that much proved true. Thus their attack on Pearl Harbor.

If you think we were right to oppose Imperial Japan and Hitler then you should also agree that standing up to Putin is the right thing to do. If you think we should have left Hitler alone and allowed Japan to expand then you are being consistent in supporting Putin now.

[dawg80]

Act of desperation or a clever move? What...well I am referring to the Russkies parking 20 miles of freight cars on a RR track to block Ukran tanks and armored vehicles from advancing past that point. That's an OK tactic in a short-term scrape but the Ukrans will simply blast the chit out of it with powerful HIMARS or cruise missiles and then easily, and I mean easily, clear paths through the wreckage for their vehicles to advance. This is one of three RR lines previously used by the Russians to ferry supplies and reinforcements but have been rendered useless when the Ukrans destroyed key bridges along the line and are continually attacking any efforts to rebuild or replace those wrecked bridges.

Mighty, bad-azz Russia continues to be humbled by tiny Ukraine. Good show!

[dawg80]

China's central bank sent a stern message to Putin over falling behind in payments they are due. Gotta pay the piper Vladimir! Official statement says the China central bank is strongly considering cutting off loans to Putin if a substantial payment(s) isn't made and soon.

[PawDawg]

Tell us how much NATO is contributing to the effort.

You are way over the top with your comparison to Germany and Japan almost 100 years ago.

[dawg80]

Tell us how much NATO is contributing to the effort.

You are way over the top with your comparison to Germany and Japan almost 100 years ago.

There is a legit comparison between our involvement in WWII and what is happening now, and a similar isolationist, "it is none of our business" attitude of those wanting the US to just stay out of it. FDR had to fight a lot of political battles and go against popular sentiment that Hitler's doings in Europe was a European problem, not ours. And, alarmingly, there is a correlation between Japan's imperialism and those of the Chicoms today. Eerily similar. The fact you say the comparison is "way over the top" indicates you are not familiar with the history of the 1930's when both Germany and Japan were flexing their muscle and making their intentions very clear. Take some time and read up on that time period and then we can maybe have an intelligent discussion about it.

As for the first part:

https://news.yahoo.com/u-provides-le...152900217.html

[PawDawg]

There is a legit comparison between our involvement in WWII and what is happening now, and a similar isolationist, "it is none of our business" attitude of those wanting the US to just stay out of it. FDR had to fight a lot of political battles and go against popular sentiment that Hitler's doings in Europe was a European problem, not ours. And, alarmingly, there is a correlation between Japan's imperialism and those of the Chicoms today. Eerily similar. The fact you say the comparison is "way over the top" indicates you are not familiar with the history of the 1930's when both Germany and Japan were flexing their muscle and making their intentions very clear. Take some time and read up on that time period and then we can maybe have an intelligent discussion about it.

As for the first part:

https://news.yahoo.com/u-provides-le...152900217.html

A percentage of GDP? Can't believe you used that leftist talking point.

I'm very familiar with what Germany and Japan were doing in the early 30s. I also know that FDR and congress waited years to actually react. The bombing of Pearl Harbor was our 9-11 on 12-7-41.

Will you be as passionate about China's takeover of Taiwan and demand we print up more money when that happens?

I can assure you that none of the deep state cabal is now printing money because the freedom of Ukraine depends on it. I think you know that.

We can't afford to nor should we be the world's keeper.

[dawg80]

According to reliable sources, Putin made a total fool out of Tucker Carlson. When Tucker asked a question, most of the time Putin answered with total nonsense knowing the interpreter would be reading from prepared answers. For instance, when Tucker asked why Putin invaded Ukraine, Putin actually replied," Because someone murdered a gorilla in the Cincinatti zoo in 2018." To which Tucker nodded and waited for the prepared statement to be read to him in English. To the YouTubers who speak fluent Russian they are having a field day laughing at Tucker Carlson.

Then, even worse, some of the supposed translation in English that we get to hear has been altered to fit the pro-Putin agenda. In other words, there are some accusing Tucker Carlson et al of trying to protect Putin by spinning some of what he actually said, via the prepared statements. I don't know, just passing this along since there has been some angst posted on blogs and by one YouTuber I have found to be honest and accurate in the past. If true, and if it can be proven, then Tucker Carlson is done. He would have lost what little credibility he had left and even his supporters should be upset with him. Again, if this latter part is true.

I do believe the part of Putin playing Tucker for a fool. I hope the second part is not true.

[dawg80]

Reports concerning Avdiivka say Ukraine is rushing reinforcements into the area to hold it. It is being reported that the 3rd Assault Brigade, the Azov Brigade, is among the troops being sent it. Hmmm...seems like every time there is a crisis somewhere along the 900-mile front the Azov Brigade is reported going in to save the day. It is true they have been redeployed a couple of times but always close to Bakhmut. If this is true, this would be the first time the 3rd was sent so far from the Bakhmut region. But, as good as the 3rd is, they are only a 5,000-man brigade and can't be expected to show up to save the day everywhere. Besides, they are not the only "elite" unit the Ukrans have, both the 47th and 79th brigades have been very successful everywhere they have fought too.

Then, in the bigger picture, I'm not so sure sending in the 3rd Brigade is a good idea. The Russians have deployed over 20,000 fresh troops and dozens of tanks and other assets in an all-out effort to seize Avdiivka. Maybe the 3rd is being deployed to the industrial complex area, and even in the worst of situations, they would be able to withdraw to safety in good order.

The Russians have given up trying to retake lost ground in Kherson, at least for the time being. The Russians have also hunkered down in Kharkiv, only attacking in small numbers near their targeted city of Chasis Var. The Russians have moved reinforcements from both the north and south to concentrate at Avdiivka. But the Ukrans can't match this re-deployment in numbers because they can ill-afford to abandon their defenses anywhere along the 900-mile front because if they did, the remaining Russian units would simply walk across the lines and capture ground. The Ukrans are spread thin trying to protect 900 miles of defenses, while the Russians don't have that worry. Not really. The Ukran advance south of Bakhmut is due, in part, to the Russians pulling troops out of that sector in favor of the Avdiivka build-up. But, it would be foolish for the Ukrans to get greedy and advance too far anywhere along the front. They would be outside of their prepared defenses with a supply line extended and exposed to Russian artillery, drone, and aerial attacks. As it is, the Ukrans did advance a couple of miles, but have stopped in a place they can hold and that makes sense.

[dawg80]

A percentage of GDP? Can't believe you used that leftist talking point.

I've very familiar with what Germany and Japan were doing in the early 30s. I also know that FDR and congress waited years to actually react. The bombing of Pearl Harbor was our 9-11 on 12-7-41.

Will you be as passionate about China's takeover of Taiwan and demand we print up more money when that happens?

I can assure you that none of the deep state cabal is now printing money because the freedom of Ukraine depends on it. I think you know that.

We can't afford to nor should we be the world's keeper.

"Passionate" about defending Taiwan? R U kidding me! I think I have been very clear about my support for Taiwan. It's under the thread entitled "China."

You say you KNOW what Germany and Japan were doing in the 1930's then fail to see the connection to Putin and the Chicoms? Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it. Thankfully you are not in charge of what the US and our allies are doing.

We cannot afford NOT to be the "world's keeper." There will be no amount of money...not $trillions!...that will be enough to recover from the Chicoms getting their way in the Pacific region. Likewise, appeasing Putin will just end being way more costly than the small amount we are spending now....WAY more!

Obviously, I think you are wrong but appreciate the opportunity to discuss it. Goosey was wrong too, about everything (well, most everything) he posted but at least he tried. If you're reading this, chime in Goosey!

[dawg80]

Update: Avdiivka

The Ukrans have pulled the 110th Brigade out and replaced it with the 47th Brigade. The 110th has been holding the line there for over a year and have been in the thick of the heavy combat since last October. Well, one battalion of the 110th remains for the time being, but are in a reserve role, pending their withdrawal. Probably will be pulled out when fresher units arrive. Is the 3rd Brigade enroute? Guess we'll see.

Pro-Putin YouTubers are jolly with excitement over the prospects of a "victory" at Avdiivka. If it happens then this will mark the second such "victory" in the past year, joining Bakhmut. Of course, the price tag has been very high. I am reminded what the British general said after their "victory" at Bunker Hill: "another such victory will ruin us," considering their high casualties.

[dawg80]

Reports are the Russians have reached Hwy 542, just south of the industrial complex. This effectively cuts off those Ukran units in the heart of the city. Their only recourse are the inferior roads across open ground. Saw a video where a 4-wheel-drive truck was stuck over its axles, buried. They didn't say this was at Avdiivka but did say it is typical of all non-paved roads right now due to winter weather.

Western sources confirmed Putin struck an apartment complex in Kyiv, killing women and children, with a hypersonic missile. What a great guy!

[dawg80]

The 3rd Brigade arrived at the industrial complex with all guns blazing, heavy fighting in and around the complex. The Ukrans aren't worried about the critical plants being destroyed because they need to either hold it or destroy it. Russian soldiers had occupied some of the out buildings and the 3rd went in on US assault vehicles, not Bradleys, with .50 cal heavy machineguns and rocket launchers. Some great video just released. We'll see what happens.

Ukrans sunk another Putin warship last night, already confirmed, the Kunikov, an amphibious assault ship. It's amazing the Russians have not come up with a defense against the Ukran sea drones. They seem hapless and helpless. One drone impacted the port side and the ship blew up and was completely gone in less than 10 minutes. No reports of casualties yet, but they have to be heavy. Can't see how many of the crew could have survived that massive kaboom! and rapid sinking.

Ukran drones struck two Putin oil refineries/storage facilities fairly deep inside of Russia. Early reports are substantial damage and fires burning.

A MIG factory in Moscow was burning out of control, massive damage to the plant with injuries reported. Official reports from the Russians is this was not an attack or sabotage, just an industrial accident. Perhaps, but it's another Putin war facility put out of production, at least for a while.

[dawg80]

The Russian landing ship, the Kunikov, went down with a crew of 87. Search & Rescue teams have not found any survivors, looks like it went down with all hands. There is video of the Kunikov successfully landing 4 armored vehicles and 4 trucks on the shore of Kherson, Ukraine. Local Putin loyalists were on the beach and videoed the operation two days ago, cheering the Russians driving the vehicles. Too bad the Ukrans did not attack the ship prior to landing thus taking out those 8 vehicles too. As it is the Kunikov won't be delivering any more equipment.

Ukran drones completely obliterated a Russian column approaching Avdiivka last night. There were 4 tanks, 6 APCs, and 4 trucks in the convoy. Using their infrared guided drones the Ukrans attacked and destroyed all 14 vehicles. Then the surveillance drone with its infrared camera hovered to check the damage. In the video only 3 Russian soldiers can be seen staggering away from the road littered with debris and burning vehicles. The Ukran drone stayed over the wreckage for 10 minutes and only 3 soldiers were detected still alive. If there were other survivors they have to be very badly wounded/burned because each vehicle was a blazing wreck.

Speaking of which, a Russian marine colonel died from his severe burns in a military hospital on Crimea. He had been pulled from a burning command vehicle but has succumbed to his burns. Scratch another asshole. He is being heralded in the Russian media as a hero. He had garnered attention, and medals, for his leadership in the attack on Georgia some years back. I won't attempt to type his name...it's about 200 letters long!

Clearly Avdiivka is gonna fall to the Russians. They don't care how many casualties they have to suffer to "achieve" this goal. Putin has ordered it be done so he can hold it up as a trophy to the Russian populace. There are conflicting reports pouring out from multiple sources, so who knows what is really happening at the moment. Some say the Ukrans have already completed the withdrawal of all their troops from the city's center, and some say it is in progress, still others say the Ukrans intend to try to hold it and are sending in reinforcements. These can't all be true, so we'll have to see what plays out in the next couple of days.

[dawg80]

The Ukrans withdrew from a closing pocket in the south side of Avdiivka. They weren't going to hold it, so it was better to save those troops. The 107th Brigade has sent one battalion to the area but is being held outside the city to the west. Probably there to deliver covering fire when the final evacuation begins. The 47th Brigade and the 3rd Brigade have entered the fight. Not clear what their mission is. Is it to actually try to hold Avdiivka (doubtful) or just inflict as much damage as possible and stabilize the situation enough to allow an orderly withdrawal (most likely)? One battalion of the 3rd Brigade has successfully occupied the industrial complex. They wiped out the Russian soldiers who had occupied a couple of out buildings on the grounds. But, now what? Clearly the industrial complex is the key target for Putin. He wants it, he needs it, taken with as little damage as possible. Avdiivka itself, the city, holds no strategic value to either side. To get into the city you have to take side roads as it is not on a major national highway. Highway 542 is one of two paved roads into the city and the only "major" highway. There is a railroad line but it too is a side spur designed to serve the industrial complex.

Putin propagandists are cheer-leading the hell out of this. The Ukrans have made small gains elsewhere along the 900-mile front, nothing significant, and have continued to attack and destroy various military and industrial targets inside of Russia. Ukran drones attacked another oil storage facility, this one near Kursk. Fires burning out of control at the facility. If you know your WWII history then you know the significance of Kursk, site of the largest tank on tank battle in history. So, while the Putinites are giddy over the pending taking of Avdiivka, elsewhere Putin is getting his ass kicked.

It appears that Putin will satisfy himself with the taking of the four eastern provinces. At least, for a while. Most pundits agree Putin wants all of Ukraine, eventually, but will settle for the eastern portion until he can rebuild his depleted military. To date, including holding all of Crimea, the Russians have taken 62% of the four eastern provinces. If the West continues to support Ukraine, even at current minimal levels, there is no way Putin will gobble up the remaining 38% anytime soon. Maybe never.

[PawDawg]

If the West continues to support Ukraine, even at current minimal levels, there is no way Putin will gobble up the remaining 38% anytime soon. Maybe never.

So print more money?