Russia

[dawg80]

More details...the 1st "Da Vinci" Brigade and the 93rd Assault Brigade (Ukrainian) have joined the fight north of Pokrovsk, known as the "rabbit ears salient." The 1st is attacking from the north, the 93rd from the east, and the 1st Azov Corps units from the west. At this point the Russians still outnumber the Ukrainians engaged in this fight, and the Russians are on the defensive using prepared defenses and wooded areas to their advantage. So, while the Russian advance has been checked, that is, the Russians have dug in, stopped trying to advance, there is no way the Ukrans can dislodge the Russians...not with these numbers.

In other places the Russians are enjoying success along the eastern front. Being reported that the city of Toretsk has fallen, and the Russians have entered the central portion of Chasiv Yar. No way to sugarcoat it, the Putinites are winning along the eastern front where Putin has concentrated 250,000 fresh troops and has them focusing on specific targets (cities). The Ukrans have no choice but to leave some troops guarding the border and the front elsewhere and are unable to come close to matching the Russian buildups.

Note: the Azov Corps is designated the 1st Corps in the Ukranian army. I referred to it as the 3rd Corps because that was the initial designation, but later was changed to "1st Corps."

[PawDawg]

Prediction on how the meeting will go today? Will bad orange man get the cease fire?

IDK, but the only thing I see (have heard) that makes sense is cutting off the life line to Russia's cash flow. Will the tariffs work if he doesn't get the cease fire?

[dawg80]

Prediction on how the meeting will go today? Will bad orange man get the cease fire?

IDK, but the only thing I see (have heard) that makes sense is cutting off the life line to Russia's cash flow. Will the tariffs work if he doesn't get the cease fire?

I don't think anything concrete will come out of today's meeting. Mostly because Putin simply is not interested in peace. Now, will Trump (as rumored) try to tempt Putin by offering some kind of economic agreement/deal whereby Putin agrees to give up on Ukraine in exchange for a great working relationship with the US, and other western countries? Even if Trump makes such an offer, which would ruffle the feathers of many, I doubt Putin would take it. Putin is not interested in economics, per se, except as it affects his war-making. Putin wants eastern Europe annexed into Russia.

As for tariffs/sanctions, those will only work if the entire "west" honors them. That means Europe, Japan, Australia et al stop buying Putin's O&G, which they might continue to do via third-parties. Then even if the west does, it still represents a fraction of Putin's O&G exports. China and India combined are buying 70% of Putin's oil exports. North Korea and Iran are buying some and want more of his cheap oil. Then there are smaller markets, such as African countries, wanting some of Putin's cheap oil. India, in particular, is re-selling some of that cheap oil for a profit on the open world market. But, they have also said they are willing to stockpile Putin's cheap oil for their own future use.

What needs to happen is the seizure of Putin's shadow fleet of oil tankers. Of course, they aren't really "ghost" ships anymore because every one of them are being tracked now using satellites, drones, and western navy vessels. Seizing Putin's tankers could be considered an "act of war" so the question is, how would Putin (and his axis partners) react?

The BBC just published a report on Russia's economy and they give it to late 2026 or maybe early 2027, at this rate, until a total collapse comes. And that is based on the current situation. Any disruption to Putin's oil exports will accelerate that collapse. To me, the recipe for the Free World to follow is to support Ukraine's war efforts, squeeze Putin's economy and allow matters to run their course. Putin will ultimately defeat himself.

[dawg80]

Ukranian drones took out the commander (a colonel) of Russia's 85th Rifle Regiment. The colonel and members of his staff were killed when they visited a forward HQ location. Every move any commanders make are tracked by recon drones. This is true for both sides, but the Ukrans have excelled at it, routinely taking out Russia's field command structure. The 85th Rifle Regiment is one of Putin's better, veteran units. Chances are replacements will be found and this unit continue to be effective.

Ukraine narrowly missed taking out some of Russia's generals who had gathered for a meeting in an apartment building, suburb of Moscow. Ukrainian operatives, aided by anti-Putin Russians, tracked the movement of these generals and they learned there was a meeting scheduled and learned the location and time for the meeting. But, unfortunately, either the Russians were tipped off or the Ukranian drones were detected approaching the location. About 5 minutes before the Ukran drones slammed into the building, the generals and their staffs were hurriedly evacuated from the building. This was a miss, but it has to have unnerved the Russians. They thought they had taken every precaution to protect those generals, using unmarked vehicles to transport the officers, etc. Yet! Ukraine knew all about it.

[PawDawg]

Seizing Putin's tankers could be considered an "act of war" so the question is, how would Putin (and his axis partners) react?.

If the bad guys react in the wrong way, they are suddenly without their oil supply.

[dawg80]

Putin has 300+ ghost oil tankers and supply/cargo ships. Don’t know how many of each. Point is if the West (allies) start wholesale seizing Putin’s shadow fleet vessels he’s not going to sit still for it and China and India will most likely join with him in retaliation of some kind.
War????

Thus far 5 or 6 tankers have been seized with the nation doing so citing safety concerns as the vessels are old and poorly maintained. And to drive home that point, 6 of Putin's aging tankers have either blown up or sprung a leak and sunk.

[PawDawg]

Welp…maybe Trump (after speaking with NATO cowards and Z) will share more with Hannity tonight.

[dawg80]

Back in Ukraine, some good news. Elements of the 1st Azov Corps punched across the base of the "rabbit ears" cutting off and trapping several hundred Russians, who are now completely surrounded. Reported that the 25th Assault Regiment (1st Azov Corps) led the way as the hammer and the 93rd Brigade was the anvil. 275 Russians were KIA, 130 wounded, 18 captured in 4 hours of heavy combat. One Russian tank and three APCs/IFVs were destroyed. This is a huge success for Ukraine, and another setback for Russia.

[dawg80]

Russia attacked two oil pipelines belonging to Azerbaijan and are moving troops to the border. Azerbaijan put its military on full alert. And, Turkey has effectively invaded Armenia sending troops into that country under the guise of offering protection against Russia. Armenia demanded the Turks to leave, but Turkey's only response has been, "Nah, you need us. You will see." During and after World War I the Turks practiced genocide attempting to erase Armenia, and all Armenians, from the map. Tens of thousands were murdered by the Turks. Now, seeing Turkish troops in Armenia is more than distasteful, and Armenians are vowing to fight the Turks to the last man. No fighting has occurred, yet, but tensions are running high.

Trump just negotiated a settlement between Armenia and Azerbaijan securing a commerce corridor linking the two countries which will be developed and managed by American companies. These developments cast a shadow over that arrangement.

The world is on the edge...

[dawg80]

Welp…maybe Trump (after speaking with NATO cowards and Z) will share more with Hannity tonight.

The usual TDS-suffering idiots are blasting Trump for this summit. Calling him names, saying they are embarrassed, blah, blah, blah. No need for me to cite examples of their lunacy, I'm sure you get the picture.

In many ways this Ukraine war is a lot like a hostage situation. Group of evil bandits seize a bank and are holding innocent civilians as hostages. The police (SWAT) have the bank surrounded. Early on the police have two basic choices, they can storm the bank, guns blazing, and end the crisis...but how many innocent folks get killed? OR! they can try to negotiate a "peaceful" settlement to the situation, sparing the lives of the hostages, but having to give in, making some concessions to the bandits. Right now, Trump is playing the part of that negotiator. Not exactly an apples-to-apples comparison but the gist is the same.

Personally, I am concerned that Trump is leaning too much toward the role of negotiator. Meaning I think he is too willing to keep giving Putin chances to measure up to a "peaceful" settlement. A line needs to be drawn in the sand, some "drop dead" target date with clear expectations. If severe, and I do mean SEVERE consequences! are not implemented with a failure to act, then Trump truly needs to follow-up on his pledge to stop pretending and walk away.

Meanwhile, back in Ukraine, those gallant lads are holding their own.

[dawg80]

Putin has 300+ ghost oil tankers and supply/cargo ships. Don’t know how many of each. Point is if the West (allies) start wholesale seizing Putin’s shadow fleet vessels he’s not going to sit still for it and China and India will most likely join with him in retaliation of some kind.
War????

Thus far 5 or 6 tankers have been seized with the nation doing so citing safety concerns as the vessels are old and poorly maintained. And to drive home that point, 6 of Putin's aging tankers have either blown up or sprung a leak and sunk.

Kaboom! Ukraine sunk a Putin cargo ship carrying drone parts from Iran. The ship tried to sneak through the Black Sea, but the Ukrans had been tracking it since it departed Iran a week ago. All it took was one sea drone and the ship, with a thin and rusting hull, went down fast. Some of the crew are missing and feared dead. Russia was slow sending help as their coast guard rescue boats/helicopters have been destroyed by Ukrainian drones. A Russian recon drone was dispatched first to see if it was safe. By the time rescue boats arrived the ship was gone and some survivors plucked from the water.

[DawgyNWindow]

I don't know how you stop something like war in Ukraine.

Even as the Ukrainians punch above their weight class, Russia continues to grind away toward winning the war. Body counts mean nothing when the side with more resources (including personnel) is truly determined to achieve what they set out to accomplish. Just look at Vietnam and the disparity there.

How do you get someone to stop fighting when they are winning and the deaths of their own soldiers mean nothing to them?

As long as India, China and others (perhaps even NATO-aligned European nations) keep buying and reselling Russian oil, sanctions will not work. Maybe they should just buy about a billion windmills so they won't be so dependent on fossil fuels. At least you won't be funding the Russian war effort (unless China decides to aid Russia's war effort with the profits they get from selling the windmills).

If Russia accomplishes their goals, I'll give you one guess the nationality of the soldiers/leaders that will be subjected to "war crimes" trials in Moscow or Kiev.

[dawg80]

Based on some "leaks" and speculation there are pundits who say Trump is playing it this way in an attempt to drive a wedge between Russia and China. Maybe. This speculation makes some sense, since the way Trump has been handling this so far makes zero sense. To me, and others, the key is India. Trump should be having summits with Modi and winning India's friendship back. China, with the commies in charge, are and will be a threat to the US and to world peace. Yes, further isolating China is a good idea, and certainly separating Russia from China would be HUGE! By I fear that is nothing but a fool's errand and Trump is wasting time and resources pursuing it. If, indeed, that is his intention by playing friendly with Putin.

As for Ukraine, the FREE WORLD stands at a crossroads. Have been standing there for 3 1/2 years now...really going back to 2014 when the weak-ass obummer allowed Putin to seize Crimea. Europe is puny and pathetic today. YES! I understand (and support) trying to avoid war. That is why I still support Trump's efforts to try to end the war in Ukraine via diplomacy. But, it should be readily obvious to even Trump that Putin is simply not interested in a peaceful solution except a temporary one where he garners all the concessions from Ukraine. President Trump, you tried, you really did, but your efforts have failed. Period. So, back to the crossroads. Trump will meet with President Z and host of European leaders Monday. All those European leaders will do is invite Trump to come stand with them at those crossroads.

So...where do these different roads lead? One is capitulation to Putin, allowing him to keep the territory he has illegally seized, and probably continuing to take more, and allowing Putin to eventually accomplish his goal of annexing a good portion of eastern Europe. The other road leads to actual, tough action...maybe even war between NATO and Russia. REAL economic sanctions and action to halt Putin's war machine. A 100% seizure of his shadow fleet. Worldwide tariffs/sanctions against China, India, et al who continue to support Putin. Flooding Ukraine with all the weapons, equipment, ammo, supplies they need. Ukraine needs boots on the ground. So, countries, including the US, can fund the recruitment, training, equipping of mercenaries who are willing to go fight for Ukraine. Not sure how many soldiers that might lead to, but it is worth pursuing. And NATO troops, actual NATO troops in Ukraine serving behind the lines in logistics, training, equipment maintenance, medical services, etc. freeing up more Ukrainian soldiers to go fight. All of these steps are practical and are the next steps needing to be taken.

[dawg80]

A gunpowder factory in Russia went Kaboom! It is gone. The whole plant went up a like giant firecracker. Video of the site shows there is literally nothing left standing. Early reports say 5 killed, 100+ injured, but the death toll is expected to rise dramatically. So far Ukraine has not claimed the credit, so it was most likely an industrial accident. But the results are the same as 70% of that gunpowder was for Russian military use.

Meanwhile, fearing the worst, Putin has placed two of his girlfriends and both bastard sons behind tight security at one of his country estates, the Palace at Vidai. They have built 12 defensive towers, armed with his best anti-drone weapons, and hundreds of his crack troops are assigned to defend the estate. Better have a state-of-the-art bunker, a bomb shelter, because Ukraine can utterly flatten that place if they choose to. Meanwhile, his two bastard sons are effing Putin's girlfriends, sipping expensive wine and generally enjoying themselves. Ah...the life of a dictator and those close to him, eh.

[dawg80]

Updates on the "rabbit ears" salient, more wins for Ukraine. As of this morning over 400 Russians are KIA, about the same wounded/captured, and the 1st Azov Corps has cut another slice through the Russian salient, trapping a further 700 Russians. What looked like a game-changing, perhaps war-winning move by Russia has instead turned into a total disaster for the Orcs, and yet another heroic victory by the men of the Azov Corps. In addition to the Azov units are other elite Ukrainian units, such as the 1st "Da Vinci" Regiment, the 25th Air Assault Regiment, and two regiments of the 93rd Assault Brigade. Holding the line in Pokrovsk is the valiant 4th Frontier Brigade. They have been fighting there for over 6 months and as of today, not a single square foot of Pokrovsk is soiled by the Orcs. Yes, the Russians have sent in squads who penetrated the defenses, but 100% of those Russians are either dead, captured, or expelled.

The 47th Armored Brigade (1st Azov Corps) was stalled in its advance toward Pokrovsk coming under intense artillery and drone attacks and then challenged by a company of Russian armor. But all of that has been cleared away, and now, the situation at Pokrovsk under control by Ukraine, the 47th has been diverted into a maneuvering, attacking unit northeast of the Pokrovsk pocket.

There is another fully operational corps in the Ukrainian Army, presently designated the 7th Corps as the 7th Assault Brigade was the central unit the corps was built around. Most expect its designation to be changed to the 2nd Ukrainian Corps, as this represents the second corps formed by combining independent units.