For the last 5+ years I have been monitoring Wind Speed forecasts with developing systems. The vast OVERWELMING majority have had 1 thing in common; Actual acheived maximum sustained winds end up higher to MUCH higher than NOAA's forecasts when the systems first develop.
A big part of forecasting is relying on historical data. Problem is, historical data is based on storms that developed when Ocean waters were cooler. NOAA needs to stop relying so much on historical forecating.
Checkout this chart. Yesterday, the chance that Chris would develop into a Cat 2 or greater was a cumulative 10%. Today, 25% chance. Altadawg forecast chance? Id say 50++%.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...47.shtml?table