Just my thoughts

[champion110]

With all the panic going on, I think we should keep things in perspective. This is JUST my opinion, but I thought I would share it. Maybe some other could share their thoughts in one thread about what COULD happen. No one knows, but I think some of us go way over board thinking of the worst scenario. Here are my thoughts on what COULD happen:

1. B12 leftovers keep the conference alive. They find teams to, not only, replace the departed ones, but go to 16 to look legit. They hold on to AQ status, but have to invite current non-AQ teams to remain viable:
Memphis
Southern Miss
Tech (we fit nicely in the new footprint
Houston
TCU back
SMU (if TCU doesn't make it a deal breaker)
UTEP
Tulane
etc...

2. CUSA expands to 16, as well. This will only happen if B12 goes away, though, because they will have a hard time getting to that number without pulling in some low performers - unless they can lure from MWC (and that will only happen if MWC doesn't go AQ immediately or the chances are dim). This would be our second option, if the B12 doesn't come through for us.

3. A new conference. This is unlikely due to no NCAA AQ invite for bball for a couple of years. A new conference would be a difficult hill to climb - even more difficult right now.

4. WORST CASE SCENARIO - We remain in the WAC for right now. We all act like it is the end of the world without Boise. NONE of us were that excited with Boise in the beginning, anyway. We act like Boise being invited when we were was the greatest thing on earth. They MADE it worth it by what they did on the field in the next years. We won the WAC the first year in the conference - not Boise. They then jumped to a higher level. We could be that next team to really jump to that higher level and be the Boise of the WAC. Like I said, this is the WORST case scenario. Still nothing to panic over.

While I want a regional conference as much as anyone, we are doing fine where we are right now. The WAC is still better than the belt, even without Boise. We can be that next bcs buster, if we take advantage of the situation.

Now, the most LIKELY scenario is CUSA. Even if they don't get raided (very unlikely), they are going to want to expand. Unlike the WAC, they are not happy with the current status.

So, there will be opportunities. B12, CUSA, then WAC. We should be shooting for the B12, with some of the CUSA schools that are doing the same thing (ie... Houston).

There are back room talks everywhere right now, including Tech. This is a long game, but is moving faster than it ever has. Don't sell Tech short in this just because you aren't hearing anything. Not hearing anything is probably the best sign that something is in the works. You don't want our athletic department to be blasting information that could hurt our chances right now. You want it to be behind the doors.

Just my thoughts.........

[champion110]

Oh, and you will see one conference NOT named as a worst case scenario, because they are not in our scenario's. I think the first 2 options above are the most likely.

[tenacious_dog]

It might go down that way. I think it depends on what the MWC wants to do after having added Boise. It seems to me they clearly have a master plan in mind and they have to have contengencies.

With the PAC going to 16 one way or the other and the trend to conference championship, I believe they see they need for at least 12 members with the possibility of 16. There are now 10 teams in the MWC and 5 remaining in the B12. With the possible exception of Missouri, the MWC and B12 refugees are going to tend to stick together. If they just pool their resources, which is the path of least resistance, they only need one more team to get to 16. I put my money on Houston, particularly given their statements in the last two days.

If the PAC doesn't get A&M, they'll need one more team which will be either Utah or Kansas. Either way, should they need another team to hold onto 16 I think they pull either UTEP, Fresno or Nevada.

HD put this forward on another thread in the last couple of days. With how things are going, it just seems the most logical.

[champion110]

It might go down that way. I think it depends on what the MWC wants to do after having added Boise. It seems to me they clearly have a master plan in mind and they have to have contengencies.

With the PAC going to 16 one way or the other and the trend to conference championship, I believe they see they need for at least 12 members with the possibility of 16. There are now 10 teams in the MWC and 5 remaining in the B12. With the possible exception of Missouri, the MWC and B12 refugees are going to tend to stick together. If they just pool their resources, which is the path of least resistance, they only need one more team to get to 16. I put my money on Houston, particularly given their statements in the last two days.

If the PAC doesn't get A&M, they'll need one more team which will be either Utah or Kansas. Either way, should they need another team to hold onto 16 I think they pull either UTEP, Fresno or Nevada.

HD put this forward on another thread in the last couple of days. With how things are going, it just seems the most logical.

We have to hope that CUSA doesn't want to be out maneuvered by MWC. Knowing that MWC will have the jump on the B12 refugees, CUSA must expand to 16, as well. I hope........ The names won't be as high profile (except maybe Baylor), but they could make a push here. They have a consultant on board that is certainly helping them figure out what they should do. With Benson being so weak, we know the WAC is going to reach down. CUSA seems to be forward thinking, though, they might have to reach down a little (especially if the Big East makes a move), but they could challenge MWC in numbers, at least.

Let's say that the Big East just takes Memphis from CUSA and the MWC gets all except Baylor from the B12 (assuming that the B12 doesn't try to remain a conference). Who all will CUSA grab to get to 16?

Also, where does UTEP fall? With 5 B12 bringing MWC to 15, does UTEP or Houston get an invite? OR, does Nevada or Fresno? I think Houston's chances are best, even though UTEP fits the footprint better.

[ChuckK3]

It is perfectly okay to be HOPEFUL for some sort of big-time conference alignment, but don't criticize the rest of us for thinking it's much more realistic (at least this morning, Saturday 6/12/2010 at 7:30 AM) that we go no where at this time. I have confidence that Bruce and Terry Bradshaw and whomever else is probably working behind the scenes very hard to get us someplace more geographically fitting without a perceived step backwards.

If we don't have confidence in the ability or aptitude our leadership...we all need to push to get rid of them. I think BVDV has the background and the connections to take us a lot further than the previous AD (who probably was more qualified to get us on a sub-committee in Washington than into a new athletic conference), and I believe Dr Dan has done a marvelous job of positioning Tech academically for a conference shift. We are THE second best public school in the state, without ANY help from our Legislature to protect us as a "flagship." (thank you very much)

I am beginning to think that many of you have a ton of INTERNET BRAVADO, but just beyond the keyboard, you REALLY feel that Tech is not a very strong candidate for anybody beyond the Sun Belt. I'm a marketing guy...if YOU don't believe in the product YOU ARE TRYING to sell, YOU WON'T BE VERY SUCCESSFUL at SELLING IT. - Marketing 101

[Dawgbert]

Is the WAC being proactive at all in looking for travel mates for TECH? Now would be a great opportunity for them to add eastern schools.

[NO2001]

Will North Texas join the WAC?

[hookdown]

3. A new conference. This is unlikely due to no NCAA AQ invite for bball for a couple of years. A new conference would be a difficult hill to climb - even more difficult right now.

I think the NCAA grants tons of waivers after the dust settles. They have to do something to keep things somewhat level. This is not really an issue in my opinion.

[champion110]

I think the NCAA grants tons of waivers after the dust settles. They have to do something to keep things somewhat level. This is not really an issue in my opinion.

You may be correct on that. If that were the case, we should be building our own conference right now with eyes on AQ - Baylor, Kansas, KState, S.Miss, Memphis, Houston, SMU, Rice, UTEP, Tulane and us will start it with 11. Then, grab a couple of AQ teams that are nervous in the shuffle. Persuade Vandy, MState, and Arkansas that they belong with us. Just need one more AQ team and we have a Super conference AQ.

[BulldawgMom]

You may be correct on that. If that were the case, we should be building our own conference right now with eyes on AQ - Baylor, Kansas, KState, S.Miss, Memphis, Houston, SMU, Rice, UTEP, Tulane and us will start it with 11. Then, grab a couple of AQ teams that are nervous in the shuffle. Persuade Vandy, MState, and Arkansas that they belong with us. Just need one more AQ team and we have a Super conference AQ.

There aren't threads on MSU boards right now, in all the "what-iffin", about the likelihood of getting the SEC boot...... Don't really think it will happen, but we're not Moo-U for nuthin'........

[champion110]

There aren't threads on MSU boards right now, in all the "what-iffin", about the likelihood of getting the SEC boot...... Don't really think it will happen, but we're not Moo-U for nuthin'........

I was just joking around about MState and Arkansas. Would be nice to pull some nervous AQ programs into a new AQ conference, though. Just need to be the ones to have the vision to sell. :icon_wink:

[BulldawgMom]

There are threads on MSU boards right now, in all the "what-iffin", about the likelihood of getting the SEC boot...... Don't really think it will happen, but we're not Moo-U for nuthin'........

Typo!

[champion110]

Typo!

Still safe bet that no one in the SEC will get the boot. I see growth, but not replacement.

[Lilfido]

You will NEVER EVER see CUSA expand to 16. Heck NONE of the non-aq conferences will expand to 16. It won't work because the pie is just not as big as a PAC 16 pie or a Big16 or an SEC 16. It would just be the old WAC again and we all know what happened there. You can throw that scenario OUT. CUSA will never have more than 12 teams in it. For the record CUSA is not trying to "keep up" with the MWC. The two are not even on the same planet.

[detltu]

There aren't threads on MSU boards right now, in all the "what-iffin", about the likelihood of getting the SEC boot...... Don't really think it will happen, but we're not Moo-U for nuthin'........

Nobody in the SEC is in any trouble.