In Louisiana, we have had 273 deaths in 19 days. Is that good, bad , normal , what is the control group? How many would have died from other causes if not infected with Covid?
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In Louisiana, we have had 273 deaths in 19 days. Is that good, bad , normal , what is the control group? How many would have died from other causes if not infected with Covid?
How many of the outliers have died because a doc sent them home with undetected viral pneumonia?
Do the models take into account the good Dr’s vs. the bad ones?
You can probably add a zero to any number they publish, cases or deaths, and be closer to the real number. Still probably well short of the real number.Originally Posted by tech70
What factor should we apply to the US numbers? Deaths are the only real stat, and even those numbers could be questioned...and have been in Louisiana!
Yep! there have been 43,000 deaths in Wuhan City alone, and many more thousands throughout Hubei Province.
Hubei Province.
Right, meant to post throughout the province Wuhan is in.
Have a friend, a professor at NSU, who is from Hubei Province, a town close to Wuhan. I helped her, and her husband, buy a house here in Natchitoches. She visited her family over the Christmas break...yes, she was there. Returned just after January 1, first week of the month. She used to be able to communicate with her family via Skype or some such Internet connection, but now that has been cut off. She did get a phone call through recently and says her family is doing okay. Her family operates a small retail store in their town.
I have a colleague whose family lives in a small poor village in Hubei province. Their village was barricaded off for 6 weeks.
Not good...positive test rate has surged to 18%. Now 310 deaths and 61 of 64 parishes with a confirmed case.
I would expect positive test rate to go up until we start testing everyone , when you have to meet the criteria to be tested the rate should be high or you don’t have the criteria right. I would focus on death to see how we are doing. I don’t know when we started using the malaria drug cocktail so we cant see it’s effect in death rate but maybe in released patient numbers?
Yes positive test cases have increased but not the amount of individuals having to be hospitalized.
Yesterday number of cases increased by 1,187 from that on 3/31 and number of people in hospital increased by 143 (people on ventilators increased by 52). Difference between today and yesterday are 2,726 new cases with increase in hospital similar to yesterday 141 and ventilators increase only 17. I know all this is not really scientific as we don't know if everything is consistently updated or some may be more delayed. Also hospital and ventilator numbers could be effected by discharges or deaths. Will need to see if this continues. I'm just trying to look for anything positive.
You guys see this one about 3 hours ago.
From the Reuters an hour ago:
Why is New Orleans' coronavirus death rate 7 times New York's? Obesity is a factor
by Reuters
Thursday, 2 April 2020 10:00 GMT
By Brad Brooks
April 2 (Reuters) - The coronavirus has been a far deadlier threat in New Orleans than the rest of the United States, with a per-capita death rate much higher than in New York City. Doctors, public health officials and available data say the Big Easy's high levels of obesity and related ailments may be part of the problem.
"We're just sicker," said Rebekah Gee, who until January was the Health Secretary for Louisiana and now heads up Louisiana State University's healthcare services division. "We already had tremendous healthcare disparities before this pandemic – one can only imagine they are being amplified now."
Along with New York and Seattle, New Orleans has emerged as one of the early U.S. hotspots for the coronavirus, making it a national test case for how to control and treat the disease. Chief among the concerns raised by doctors working in the Louisiana city is the death rate, which is seven times that of New York and ten times that of Seattle, based on publicly reported data.
New Orleans residents suffer from obesity, diabetes and hypertension at rates higher than the national average, conditions that doctors and public health officials say can make patients more vulnerable to COVID-19, the highly contagious respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus.
Some 97% of those killed by COVID-19 in Louisiana had a preexisting condition, according to the state health department. Diabetes was seen in 40% of the deaths, obesity in 25%, chronic kidney disease in 23% and cardiac problems in 21%.
New Orleans, which so far has reported more than 270 coronavirus deaths, could be a harbinger for the potential toll the pandemic could take in other parts of the South and Midwest that also have high rates of obesity, diabetes, and hypertension.
A host of other factors could contribute to New Orleans' high death rate for coronavirus, ranging from access to healthcare and hospital quality, to the prevalence of other conditions including lung disease, health officials say.
But they also add that it is clear that obesity-related conditions are playing a role in the deaths. That could be a warning sign for the United States at large, where chronic obesity is more common than in other developed countries, they said.
Hospitals are reporting cases across the generations -mothers and daughters, fathers and sons - being intubated and cared for in the same intensive care units (ICUs), said Tracey Moffatt, the chief nursing officer at Ochsner Health, the largest healthcare provider in Louisiana. The prevalence of obesity, diabetes, hypertension and heart disease in New Orleans and Louisiana plays into that, she said.
Those family members often suffered from the same medical conditions before becoming sick, leaving them similarly vulnerable to the coronavirus despite their age gaps.
"We had a case where a mom was already in the ICU and the daughter, who was obese, came in," she said. "The daughter asked staff to wheel her by her mom's room so she could say goodbye before she herself was intubated. We knew the mother was going to pass away."
Both patients suffered from obesity.
'MORE VULNERABLE'
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released for the first time this week a report showing that 78% of COVID-19 patients in ICUs in the United States had an underlying health condition, including diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and chronic lung disease.
The CDC report was based on a sample of under 6% of reported coronavirus infections, but doctors in Louisiana said it was consistent with what they are seeing, and it is in line with what other countries like Italy and China have faced.
Those percentages, said Dr. Joseph Kanter, an emergency department doctor and the top public health official in New Orleans, are likely similar in cities across the United States.
"What we worry about here is that we have more people in our communities with those conditions," he said. "We're more vulnerable than other communities, and the number of deaths we've seen illustrates that."
The New Orleans metropolitan statistical area ranks among the worst in the United States for the percentage of residents with diabetes, high blood pressure, and obesity, a Reuters analysis of CDC data shows. An estimated 39% have high blood pressure, 36% are obese and about 15% have diabetes.
Nationally, the median is 32% with high blood pressure, 31% obese and 11% with diabetes.
"The burden of disease in Louisiana and the Deep South is higher than in rest of the country," said Gee. "Invariably that means that the South is going to be hard hit by this." (Reporting by Brad Brooks in Austin, Texas, additional reporting by Ryan McNeill in London; Editing by Scott Malone and Rosalba O'Brien)
https://news.trust.org/item/20200402092110-6rvk1
BMI and diabetes are "magnets" for the virus!
I'm an asshole! What's your excuse?
Natch Parish Sheriff issues warning of a 24 hr/day curfew if folks don't start following the governor's self-quarantine order. The DA said first offenders will be charged a $1,000 fine and spend some time in the parish jail. Yeah, that'll help keep folks apart.
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