Should win:
at FIU
Could go either way:
UTEP
UNT
USM
Rice
Tulsa
UTSA
Should lose:
None
8-3 is still possible. Cut out the mistakes and keep improving each week ...
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Should win:
at FIU
Could go either way:
UTEP
UNT
USM
Rice
Tulsa
UTSA
Should lose:
None
8-3 is still possible. Cut out the mistakes and keep improving each week ...
Left out Army. We should win this one.Originally Posted by T1
None of these games are unwinnable if we are on our A-game. I think North Texas, Rice, and UTSA will give us the biggest problems. Just a guess though. If we play like we did against Tulane the FIU game isn't a gimme.
Should Win: (4-0)
ARMY
UTEP
USM
FIU
Toss-up Games: (1-1)
UNT (Playing much better this year.)
UTSA (Steadily getting better and better.)
Likely losses: (0-2)
Rice
Tulsa
Assuming we split" our "Toss-up Games" (1-1), we'll finish the regular season 6-6. Frankly, I'd take that to the bank today. We could get lucky and finish 7-5.
Sagarin Predictor as of right now:
vs Army (-4)
at UTEP (EVEN)
vs North Texas (+2)
at FIU (-10)
vs USM (-6)
at Rice (+12)
vs Tulsa (+5)
at UTSA (+3)
The key is the next 5 games. Our defense is clearly better than all 5 opponents, but our offense has plummeted from #1 scoring offense nationally to #114. We must learn how to SCORE POINTS, instead of just amass yardage and then give the football away inside the 5.
Opponent Wins Losses Scoring Off Scoring Def Army 1 3 109 76 @UTEP 1 2 68 93 N. Texas 2 2 70 70 @FIU 0 4 126 125 S Miss 0 3 123 102 Average 0.8 2.8 99.2 93.2 LA Tech 1 3 114 55
Keep dreaming. FIU will be the only win. We are so terrible that it is embarassing to watch. To enjoy my college gamedays, I've temporarily adopted other teams that are much much more exciting to watch.
Updated Tech projected record--4-8, 2-6 C-USA (down from 5-7, 3-5 last week)
current Sagarin Predictor homefield advantage factor--5.23 (down from 5.29 last week)
L by 10.21 at North Carolina State (L 14-40)
W by 30.46 vs Lamar (W 27-14)
W by 13.01 vs Tulane (L 15-24)
L by 11.27 at Kansas (L 10-13)
--------------------
W by 4.10 vs Army (N), up from W by 2.24 last week
L by 2.09 at UTEP, up from L by 4.52
L by 1.66 vs North Texas, change from W by 0.21
W by 4.04 at FIU, up from W by 2.76
W by 7.87 vs USM, down from W by 9.07
L by 13.95 at Rice, up from L by 15.41
L by 2.21 vs Tulsa, down from L by 2.01
L by 5.79 at UTSA, down from L by 2.22
Offensive rank:
53. Rice
61. UNT
74. UTEP
80. Army
83. La Tech
105. Tulsa
112. USM
122. FIU
* UTSA is not ranked for some reason
Defensive rank:
38. USM
58. Army
78. La Tech
80. Rice
86. UTEP
88. Tulsa
101. FIU
112. UNT
* UTSA is not ranked for some reason
Statistically speaking:
- Rice and Army are the most complete teams we will play from here on out.
- It's going to be tough to score on USM, but they are going to have trouble scoring on us.
- UNT game may be the highest scoring game this year. Glad it's at home.
- FIU is bad on offense and defense.
- Tulsa: see USM
There are no given wins. Every game is different. Just like every year is different. You don't know till you play the game.
UTSA is not full FBS until next year...this is its second of the two required transition years from FCS. Transition teams are not listed in the official stat rankings.
That also means UTSA (along with South Alabama) cannot go to a bowl game this year unless there are not enough other eligible teams.
Last edited by RealityCheck; 09-22-2013 at 01:30 PM.
Sagarin Ratings so far:
62. NC State (Loss)
75. Rice
83. Tulsa
87. North Texas
97. Kansas (Win, but.... so Loss)
111. UTSA
115. La Tech
130. Tulane (Loss)
135. Southern Miss
142. Army
172. FIU
188. Lamar (Win)
We'll be lucky to win another game this year, Kansas hadn't beaten a division one team in 3 years. The fact we can't beat Tulane is bad enough, and I hate to say it but we just aren't good this year. I hope I'm wrong, but I'm just not convinced with the way we've been playing this year that we would win another game.
The Tech team that played yesterday would have beat Tulane. We don't have to be real good because our schedule is not exactly murderer's row. If we keep improving from the Kansas game, there is a real chance we can become decent and go bowling. We are just now finding out our strengths and weaknesses and starting to gain some experience. We still have a loooonnnngggg season ahead of us. 8-3 is a long shot, but not completely unrealistic. 6-6 seems very doable.
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