Reality Check's Weekly Sagarin Predictor Thread...

[Dwayne From Minden]

What are the conference rankings as of now?

Here is one -

http://www.realtimerpi.com/college_f..._conf_Men.html

1	Southeastern 14	84-46 (65%)	42-4 (91%)	33.53	57.97	1
	2	Pacific-12 12	69-44 (61%)	30-5 (86%)	31.16	54.89	5
	3	Big 12 10	53-39 (58%)	22-8 (73%)	29.45	55.82	3
	4	Atlantic Coast 14	77-55 (58%)	36-14 (72%)	28.68	56.38	2
	5	Big Ten 14	76-51 (60%)	39-14 (74%)	28.57	55.21	4
	6	Independents 4	19-17 (53%)	18-16 (53%)	25.26	52.76	6
	7	Mountain West 12	59-55 (52%)	27-23 (54%)	22.30	50.40	8
	8	Conference USA 13	59-63 (48%)	29-33 (47%)	20.90	48.96	10
	9	American Athletic 11	42-53 (44%)	16-27 (37%)	20.17	50.18	9
	10	Mid-American 13	55-69 (44%)	24-38 (39%)	18.84	47.39	18
	11	Sun Belt 11	43-60 (42%)	27-44 (38%)	18.63	47.19	20
	12 fcs	Missouri Valley 10	55-41 (57%)	40-26 (61%)	13.91	51.33	7
	13 fcs	Colonial 10	56-42 (57%)	31-17 (65%)	12.59	48.43	13
	14 fcs	Big South 7	34-30 (53%)	27-23 (54%)	10.61	46.25	21
	15 fcs	Big Sky 13	51-69 (43%)	14-32 (30%)	10.17	45.89	22
	16 fcs	Southland 11	47-55 (46%)	28-36 (44%)	10.16	47.30	19
	17 fcs	Patriot League 7	31-36 (46%)	16-21 (43%)	10.14	48.94	11
	18 fcs	Ohio Valley 9	36-48 (43%)	19-31 (38%)	9.72	47.47	17
	19 fcs	Ivy League 8	31-33 (48%)	11-13 (46%)	9.65	47.84	16
	20 fcs	Northeast 7	26-33 (44%)	17-24 (41%)	9.42	48.24	15
	21 fcs	Southern 8	28-42 (40%)	20-34 (37%)	8.96	48.35	14
	22 fcs	Mid-Eastern Athletic 11	39-63 (38%)	11-35 (24%)	8.40	43.84	25
	23 fcs	Southwestern Athletic 10	39-50 (44%)	2-13 (13%)	8.27	45.44	23
	24 fcs	Pioneer League 11	41-51 (45%)	11-21 (34%)	7.90	45.27	24
	25 fcs	Independents (FCS) 1	2-6 (25%)	2-6 (25%)	7.00	48.87	12

[HogDawg]

NCAA Men's Football - Conference USA (2014-2015)
Conf. Ranking: 8 Conf. SOS Rank: 10
Overall Recard: 59-63 Non-Conf Record: 29-33 Only games against Division I opponents are counted.

That Conference "Strength of Schedule" for CUSA is really bad.

[Dwayne From Minden]

That Conference "Strength of Schedule" for CUSA is really bad.

We did our share as did Rice - what would it look like without OU & Aub & ND & A&M in there?

[HogDawg]

We did our share as did Rice - what would it look like without OU & Aub & ND & A&M in there?

Good point. The rest of CUSA needs to turn it up a notch.

[Dwayne From Minden]

Good point. The rest of CUSA needs to turn it up a notch.

Yep -

Really, the only sub 100 we had on ours was the Demons and that didn't work out for us very well

[Dawg06]

Leave RPI to basketball.

Here are the College Football Computer Composite Conference Rankings. It includes all the former BCS computers except Billingsley. Average is in bold.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . A&H | Co | Ma | Sa | Wo | Avg

SEC 1 1 1 1 1 1.0 Pac-12 2 2 2 3 2 2.2 Big 12 3 4 3 2 3 3.0 Big Ten 4 3 5 4 4 4.0 ACC 5 5 4 5 5 4.8 Mountain West 6 6 6 7 6 6.2 Conference USA 7 7 8 8 7 7.4 American 8 8 7 6 8 7.4 MAC 9 9 9 9 9 9.0 Sun Belt 10 10 10 10 10 10.0

[DAIQUIRIDAWG]

Thanks guys.

[RealityCheck]

Sagarin Predictor Ratings Week 12 recap and Week 13 projections
Week 12 Sagarin Predictor FBS straight-up record—33-17 (.660), 2013 Week 12—44-7 (.863)
FBS Season to date—533-161 (.768), 2013 after Week 12—547-132 (.806)

Home field advantage is at 3.19 in the Week 13 Predictor ratings, down from 3.22 in Week 12.

80 teams are projected to be bowl-eligible at 6-6 or better (76 bowl bids to fill) going into Week 13, up from 77 before Week 12. 60 teams are bowl-eligible and 37 are eliminated after Week 12, leaving 31 teams still in contention.

AAC—6, ACC—10, Big 12—6, Big Ten—11, C-USA—7, Indy—3, MAC—6, MWC—6 Pac 12—9, $EC—12, SBC—4*

*--Georgia Southern is not included this week since 80 other teams are projected bowl-eligible.

Florida State and Marshall are projected undefeated before conference championship games going into Week 11. 6 teams are projected to be 11-1 not counting conference championship games—Alabama, Baylor, Colorado State, Ohio State, Oregon, and TCU.

Louisiana Tech projected to finish 9-3, 8-0 C-USA West 1st place (same as in Week 12 projection)
L 16-48 at Oklahoma (projected L by 36.34)
W 48-20 at ULL (projected L by 9.91)
W 42-21 at North Texas (projected L by 8.43)
L 27-30 vs NSU (projected W by 18.76)
L 17-45 at Auburn (projected L by 30.02)
W 55-3 vs UTEP (projected W by 11.48)
W 27-20 vs UTSA (projected W by 14.99)
W 31-20 at USM (projected W by 13.78)
W 59-10 vs WKU (projected W by 11.85)
W 40-24 at UAB (projected W by 9.54)
-------------PROJECTIONS-------------------
W by 17.48 at ODU (down from W by 17.96)
W by 13.12 vs Rice (up from W by 12.01)

Other Week 12 C-USA Actual/Projected Results
UTSA won 12-10 vs Southern Miss (projected W by 6.88)
Marshall won 41-14 vs Rice (projected W by 13.85)
FIU won 38-28 vs Middle Tennessee (projected L by 1.52)
UTEP won 35-17 vs North Texas (projected W by 6.54)
Western Kentucky won 52-24 vs Army (projected W by 12.63)

Other Week 13 C-USA Projected Results
Marshall projected W by 12.66 at UAB
Rice projected W by 5.01 vs UTEP
Western Kentucky projected W by 8.52 vs UTSA
Middle Tennessee projected W by 9.09 vs FAU
North Texas projected W by 3.51 vs FIU

open date—Southern Miss

[RealityCheck]

Current and projected C-USA and overall records.

CONFERENCE USA EAST	C-USA	OVERALL	CONF PROJ	OVERALL PROJ
Marshall	6-0	10-0	8-0	12-0
Middle Tennessee	4-2	5-5	5-3	6-6
UAB	3-3	5-5	4-4	6-6
Florida International	3-4	4-7	3-5	4-8
Western Kentucky	2-4	5-5	3-5	6-6
Old Dominion	2-4	4-6	2-6	4-8
Florida Atlantic	2-4	3-7	3-5	4-8
CONFERENCE USA WEST	C-USA	OVERALL	CONF PROJ	OVERALL PROJ
Louisiana Tech	6-0	7-3	8-0	9-3
Rice	4-2	6-4	5-3	7-5
UTEP	4-2	6-4	5-3	7-5
UTSA	2-4	3-7	3-5	4-8
North Texas	1-5	3-7	2-6	4-8
Southern Mississippi	1-6	3-8	1-7	3-9

[Dogsince65]

Assume it plays out like that-- we have 4 teams above 500 and 3 at 500-- what are you guys projecting for Bowl games?

[sportdawg]

Assume it plays out like that-- we have 4 teams above 500 and 3 at 500-- what are you guys projecting for Bowl games?

If cusa has 7 teams available & sec does not have team available for I-Bowl, i project we'll be there. Heart of Dallas would be next. Armed Forces bowl will likely have spot open

[sportdawg]

Armed forces does have spot open (army) - what i mean is secondary (big xii) will probably be open

[RealityCheck]

Sagarin Predictor Ratings Week 13 recap and Week 14 projections
Week 12 Sagarin Predictor FBS straight-up record—43-16 (.729), 2013 Week 13—47-12 (.797)
FBS Season to date—576-177 (.765), 2013 after Week 13—594-144 (.805)

Home field advantage is at 3.24 in the Week 14 Predictor ratings, up from 3.19 in Week 13.

Projected (current) bowl-eligible teams
80 teams are projected to be bowl-eligible at 6-6 or better (76 bowl bids to fill) going into Week 14, same as before Week 13. 71 teams are bowl-eligible and 40 are eliminated after Week 13, leaving 17 teams still in contention.

AAC—6 (5), ACC—10 (9), Big 12—6 (6), Big Ten—10 (9), C-USA—7 (6), Indy—3 (2), MAC—6 (5), MWC—7 (6), Pac 12—9 (8), $EC—12 (11), SBC—4* (4)

*--Georgia Southern and Appalachian State are not included this week since 80 other teams are projected bowl-eligible.

Florida State and Marshall are projected undefeated before conference championship games going into Week 14. 6 teams are projected to be 11-1 going into Championship Saturday—Alabama, Baylor, Colorado State, Ohio State, Oregon, and TCU.

Louisiana Tech projected to finish 8-4, 7-1 C-USA West 1st place
L 16-48 at Oklahoma (projected L by 36.34)
W 48-20 at ULL (projected L by 9.91)
W 42-21 at North Texas (projected L by 8.43)
L 27-30 vs NSU (projected W by 18.76)
L 17-45 at Auburn (projected L by 30.02)
W 55-3 vs UTEP (projected W by 11.48)
W 27-20 vs UTSA (projected W by 14.99)
W 31-20 at USM (projected W by 13.78)
W 59-10 vs WKU (projected W by 11.85)
W 40-24 at UAB (projected W by 9.54)
L 27-30 (OT) at ODU (projected W by 17.48)
-------------PROJECTION-------------------
W by 10.35 vs Rice (down from W by 13.12)

Other Week 13 C-USA Actual/Projected Results
Marshall won 23-18 at UAB (projected W by 12.66)
Rice won 31-13 vs UTEP (projected W by 5.01)
Western Kentucky won 45-7 vs UTSA (projected W by 8.52)
Middle Tennessee won 35-34 vs FAU (projected W by 9.09)
North Texas won 17-14 vs FIU (projected W by 3.51)

Other Week 14 C-USA Projected Results
Marshall projected W by 17.01 vs Western Kentucky
UTEP projected W by 4.94 vs Middle Tennessee
UAB projected W by 6.57 at USM
FAU projected W by 2.19 vs ODU
UTSA projected W by 0.03 vs North Texas

open date—FIU

[RealityCheck]

Current and projected C-USA and overall records.

CONFERENCE USA EAST	C-USA	OVERALL	CONF PROJ	OVERALL PROJ
Marshall	7-0	11-0	8-0	12-0
Middle Tennessee	5-2	6-5	5-3	6-6
Western Kentucky	3-4	6-5	3-5	6-6
UAB	3-4	5-6	4-4	6-6
Old Dominion	3-4	5-6	3-5	5-7
Florida International	3-5	4-8	3-5	4-8
Florida Atlantic	2-5	3-8	3-5	4-8
CONFERENCE USA WEST	C-USA	OVERALL	CONF PROJ	OVERALL PROJ
Louisiana Tech	6-1	7-4	7-1	8-4
Rice	5-2	7-4	5-3	7-5
UTEP	4-3	6-5	5-3	7-5
UTSA	2-5	3-8	3-5	4-8
North Texas	2-5	4-7	2-6	4-8
Southern Mississippi	1-6	3-8	1-7	3-9

[HogDawg]

Oh great. Now BOTH teams playing for the CUSA West title have losses to the 5th place team in the East. That just screams "quality" in the west doesn't it?