Yeah, but we throttled the 3rd and 4th place teams in the East. FWIW.
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Yeah, but we throttled the 3rd and 4th place teams in the East. FWIW.
Sagarin Predictor Ratings Week 14 recap and Week 15 projections
Week 14 Sagarin Predictor FBS straight-up record—45-16 (.738), 2013 Week 14—43-16 (.729)
FBS Season to date—621-193 (.763), 2013 after Week 14—637-160 (.799)
Home field advantage is at 2.33 in the Week 15 Predictor ratings, down from 3.24 in Week 14.
Projected (current) bowl-eligible teams
80 teams are projected to be bowl-eligible at 6-6 or better (76 bowl bids to fill) going into Week 15, same as before Week 14. 79 teams are bowl-eligible and 47 are eliminated after Week 14, leaving 2 teams still in contention.
AAC—6 (5), ACC—11 (11), Big 12—6 (6), Big Ten—10 (10), C-USA—7* (7), Indy—3 (3), MAC—6 (6), MWC—7 (7), Pac 12—8 (8), $EC—12 (12), SBC—4* (4)
*--Old Dominion, Georgia Southern, and Appalachian State are not included since 79 other teams are already bowl-eligible.
Louisiana Tech projected to finish 8-5, 7-1 C-USA West 1st place
L 16-48 at Oklahoma (projected L by 36.34)
W 48-20 at ULL (projected L by 9.91)
W 42-21 at North Texas (projected L by 8.43)
L 27-30 vs NSU (projected W by 18.76)
L 17-45 at Auburn (projected L by 30.02)
W 55-3 vs UTEP (projected W by 11.48)
W 27-20 vs UTSA (projected W by 14.99)
W 31-20 at USM (projected W by 13.78)
W 59-10 vs WKU (projected W by 11.85)
W 40-24 at UAB (projected W by 9.54)
L 27-30 (OT) at ODU (projected W by 17.48)
W 76-31 vs Rice (projected W by 10.35)
-------------PROJECTION-------------------
L by 5.09 at Marshall
Other Week 14 C-USA Actual/Projected Results
Western Kentucky won 67-66 (OT) at Marshall (projected L by 17.01)
UTEP won 24-21 at home vs Middle Tennessee (projected W by 4.94)
UAB won 45-24 at USM (projected W by 6.57)
Old Dominion won 31-28 at FAU (projected L by 2.19)
UTSA won 34-27 at home vs North Texas (projected W by 0.03)
Last edited by RealityCheck; 12-07-2014 at 11:22 AM.
C-USA and overall records.
CONFERENCE USA EAST C-USA OVERALL Marshall 7-1 11-1 Middle Tennessee 5-3 6-6 Western Kentucky 4-4 7-5 UAB 4-4 6-6 Old Dominion 4-4 6-6 Florida International 3-5 4-8 Florida Atlantic 2-6 3-9 CONFERENCE USA WEST C-USA OVERALL Louisiana Tech 7-1 8-4 Rice 5-3 7-5 UTEP 5-3 7-5 UTSA 3-5 4-8 North Texas 2-6 4-8 Southern Mississippi 1-7 3-9
Sagarin Predictor Ratings Week 15 recap and Bowl projection
Week 15 Sagarin Predictor FBS straight-up record—9-5 (.643), 2013 Week 15—6-8 (.429)
FBS Season to date—630-198 (.761), 2013 after Week 15—643-168 (.793)
Home field advantage is at 2.35 in the Week 15 Predictor ratings, up from 2.33 in Week 14.
Bowl-eligible teams
81 teams are bowl-eligible at 6-6 or better (76 bowl bids to fill).
The five teams left at home will be UAB, Middle Tennessee, Ohio, Temple, and Texas State.
AAC—6, ACC—11, Big 12—7, Big Ten—10, C-USA—7*, Indy—3, MAC—6, MWC—7, Pac 12—8, $EC—12, SBC—4*
*--Old Dominion, Georgia Southern, and Appalachian State are not included since 81 other teams are already bowl-eligible.
Louisiana Tech projected 9-5, 7-1 C-USA West 1st place
L 16-48 at Oklahoma (projected L by 36.34)
W 48-20 at ULL (projected L by 9.91)
W 42-21 at North Texas (projected L by 8.43)
L 27-30 vs NSU (projected W by 18.76)
L 17-45 at Auburn (projected L by 30.02)
W 55-3 vs UTEP (projected W by 11.48)
W 27-20 vs UTSA (projected W by 14.99)
W 31-20 at USM (projected W by 13.78)
W 59-10 vs WKU (projected W by 11.85)
W 40-24 at UAB (projected W by 9.54)
L 27-30 (OT) at ODU (projected W by 17.48)
W 76-31 vs Rice (projected W by 10.35)
L 23-26 at Marshall (projected L by 5.09)
-------------PROJECTION-------------------
W by 11.58 vs Illinois (Heart of Dallas Bowl)
Other Conference USA bowl projections
UTEP projected L by 7.98 vs Utah State (New Mexico Bowl)
Marshall projected W by 11.70 vs Northern Illinois (Boca Raton Bowl)
Western Kentucky projected W by 5.03 vs Central Michigan (Bahamas Bowl)
Rice projected W by 2.35 vs Fresno State (Hawai'i Bowl)
Last edited by RealityCheck; 12-07-2014 at 04:45 PM.
Tech won two games it was projected to lose (ULL and NT) and lost two games it was projected to win (NSU and ODU). Those four projected results were the same from the preseason rankings except for Rice, but only the NSU and ODU losses don't agree with the projections if you use this week's ratings.
Here is a table showing the preseason, game week, and current Predictor values.
TEAM Preseason
PredictorPres
HFProjection Game
TechGame
Opp.Game
HFGame
ProjectionPredictor
NowHF
NowProjection Now Tech 59.61 7-5 (7-6) proj 8-5 77.15 proj 10-3 OU 92.83 -3.12 L by 36.34 59.61 92.83 -3.12 L by 36.34 89.27 -3.44 L by 15.56 ULL 67.61 -3.12 L by 11.12 60.49 67.28 -3.12 L by 9.91 62.83 -3.44 W by 10.88 NT 66.14 -3.12 L by 9.65 63.04 67.58 -3.89 L by 8.43 54.28 -3.44 W by 19.43 NSU 50.50 +3.12 W by 12.23 65.66 51.19 +4.29 W by 18.76 53.28 +3.44 W by 27.31 Aub 80.71 -3.12 L by 24.22 64.66 90.41 -4.27 L by 30.02 93.14 -3.44 L by 19.43 UTEP 53.53 +3.12 W by 9.20 64.91 56.97 +3.54 W by 11.48 62.89 +3.44 W by 17.70 UTSA 60.27 +3.12 W by 2.46 73.68 62.24 +3.55 W by 14.99 53.60 +3.44 W by 26.99 USM 56.16 -3.12 W by 0.33 72.54 55.37 -3.39 W by 13.78 52.50 -3.44 W by 21.21 WKU 59.56 +3.12 W by 3.17 72.16 63.83 +3.52 W by 11.85 66.34 +3.44 W by 14.25 UAB 53.19 -3.12 W by 3.30 75.04 62.24 -3.26 W by 9.54 65.74 -3.44 W by 7.97 ODU 55.96 -3.12 W by 0.53 74.74 54.07 -3.19 W by 17.48 56.26 -3.44 W by 17.45 Rice 63.94 +3.12 L by 1.21 72.91 65.80 +3.24 W by 10.35 63.98 +3.44 W by 16.61 MU 67.42 -3.12 L by 10.93 77.01 79.77 -2.33 L by 5.09 79.46 -3.44 L by 5.75
Here is an updated historical ratings table. Tech's blended rating is now 2nd best since 1998, its ELO rating is 4th best since 2002, and Predictor rating is best since 2002.
SEASON RATING SCHEDULE RANK 1998 61 81 1999 35 81 2000 143 105 2001 64 77 SEASON BLENDED RATING ELO RATING PREDICTOR RATING SCHEDULE RANK 2002 105 103 109 85 2003 86 83 92 65 2004 71 45 96 31 2005 79 65 94 104 2006 157 141 169 86 2007 111 109 119 81 2008 87 71 100 112 2009 89 96 78 74 2010 91 95 89 82 2011 48 58 39 74 2012 51 47 52 106 SEASON BLENDED RATING ELO RATING PREDICTOR RATING DIMIN CURVE RATING SCHEDULE RANK 2013 166 154 167 168 144 SEASON BLENDED RATING ELO RATING PREDICTOR RATING GOLDEN MEAN RATING SCHEDULE RANK 2014 41 60 38 37 79
Last edited by RealityCheck; 12-07-2014 at 12:12 PM.
Does Holtz get "Dykes money" now?
No because dykes shouldn't have gotten "dykes" money. I would like to see him get a bump, but I would like to see the bulk of "dykes" money to be used to upgrade assistant coaches.
If we get to where our assistants are getting the right amount to hang around a few years then we can start promoting coaches instead of starting from scratch every 3-5 years coaching wise.
I was just messing with the board. If we fire him over last year, we must pay him more for this year. He's not going anywhere though and USF is still paying him $500K. If he puts another championship team together next year, we probably need to get the checkbook out though.
Helllll NO! This team was built with one season bandaides.Originally Posted by T1
Break out the check book after, season 4 so that he doesnt go into the final year as a lame duck. Evaluate, after he has proven he can build and sustain for the majority of a contract term.
I HOPE Tech is smart enuff not to do anything right now with Holtz's contract. If he leaves, he leaves. It won't be anything close to a loss. We can easily find a coach as good or BETTER!
We need to see one more year at least before major changes are made. He has incentives that will kick in for this year to reward the performance...$25,000 for bowl appearance.
And something that needs to be added for all future Tech contacts...APR performance below a certain level should disqualify all other contract incentives.
This week's projection post now updated with Conference USA bowl projections.
Projected E$PN Bowl Challenge Cup Standings through January 4 games
Pac 12 7-1 .875
$EC 10-2 .833
C-USA 4-1 .800
SBC 2-1 .667
Big 12 4-3 .571
ACC 6-5 .545
MWC 3-4 .429
AAC 1-4 .200
MAC 1-4 .200
Indy 0-3 .000
Big Ten 0-10 .000
Last edited by RealityCheck; 12-07-2014 at 05:23 PM.
W by 11.58 vs Illinois (Heart of Dallas Bowl)WOW!
To put it into perspective, in this week's Predictor ratings Tech is #38 at 77.15 and Illinois is #79 at 65.57. UAB is #78 at 65.74.W by 11.58 vs Illinois (Heart of Dallas Bowl)
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