Covid - 19

[eagle2180]

See eagle.. Goosey is a rare find.. Rabbid Trump hater.. expert in all things.. such as law, engineering, medicine, all forms of law, engineering, medicine, foreign policy, manufacturing, farming, security, cooking and baking..

i was kinda starting to figure that out... but I wasn’t quite sure. Thanks for verifying. 👍

[eagle2180]

I like to give people a chance! ��

[DawgyNWindow]

See eagle.. Goosey is a rare find.. Rabbid Trump hater.. expert in all things.. such as law, engineering, medicine, all forms of law, engineering, medicine, foreign policy, manufacturing, farming, security, cooking and baking..

Classic! Cooking and baking too!

[Guisslapp]

How much has changed in your life with the lockdown? I can still go to the grocery store (more crowded than usual), I can still go to Walmart(more crowded than usual and I have to wait in line now). I can’t eat dinner out a couple of times a week...other than that my kid is not going to school, work is making some provisions for work at home( 1 person in a company of 500 spread across multiple states has Covid). What has the lockdown really accomplished?

Folks seem to be social distancing pretty well around Houston, with some exceptions.

Working from home, loaded up on groceries before the lockdown, door dash from favorite local restaurants to help them stay afloat, helped small biz owners try figure out this PPP thing (folks are actually getting funded, finally), adopted a new puppy, moved M-I-L out of nursing home so she could be taken care of, have generally avoided interacting in-person with people over the past month. In that time, I have easily have avoided being in contact of near at least a thousand people that I would have been near otherwise...which was the point.

[Guisslapp]

BTW.. since you are a HUGE fan of Dr. Fauci.. He said that Trump instituted everything he asked for at the moment he asked. The medias heads exploded.

What gave you the impression I am a huge fan of Fauci?

[DawgyNWindow]

Yet, so much worse than places like South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan (and really all countries except Italy, Spain, France and U.K.).

The common factor between those of that did poorly and those that did well, was not the degree to which our Heath care system is not socialized, but it is more a function of the speed and degree to which social distancing was practiced.

Which makes perfect sense when you consider the compounding effect of transmission in the impact of COVID 19.

Seriously?

Did you break any bones while contorting that response?

[Guisslapp]

Again you are smarter than everyone else. Hundreds of thousands, hyperbole much?

Do you really not thing that hundreds of thousands would not die if we let this run its course like the flu? Because that is insane if you think that.

[DawgyNWindow]

What gave you the impression I am a huge fan of Fauci?

Well, you likely were...until he said what he said.

I hope nobody like you....EVER....gets into government. Your whole policy is "orange man bad".

[Guisslapp]

Seriously?

Did you break any bones while contorting that response?

The facts are the facts. No need to twist them. Our numbers are worse than average. That has to do with the delay and lightness of our restrictions - not the quality of our health care system.

Maybe you should check out the per capita results and see for yourself.

[Guisslapp]

Well, you likely were...until he said what he said.

I hope nobody like you....EVER....gets into government. Your whole policy is "orange man bad".

I think he is fine. I think he tries to do what is right, but he also knows he is dealing with a loose cannon that is tempted to make bad decisions.

Neither a fan nor an opponent of the guy. Certainly not the least competent guy in the room by a long shot.

[eagle2180]

Do you really not thing that hundreds of thousands would not die if we let this run its course like the flu? Because that is insane if you think that.

Based on what data? You are a “ hobby” data man by your own admission. Give me some real verifiable, standardized data and I will listen. “Andectodal” seems to be the new buzzword.
a

[Guisslapp]

Based on what data? You are a “ hobby” data man by your own admission. Give me some real verifiable, standardized data and I will listen. “Andectodal” seems to be the new buzzword.
a

Data scientists don’t always get to pick their data sets. It isn’t always standardized. The world is messier than that. You work with the data you have. You have to link the data to other principles. In this case we can see the effect of curve flattening in transmission (new cases) in real time. We can see the echo of changes in transmission in new deaths. The difference in the exponential growth before that inflection and the linear decay after suppression was instituted tells you a lot. Deaths doubling every 4 days was the initial trend - you get to hundreds of thousands in less than a month if you stay on that trend. We are now off that trend.

If we don’t maintain social distancing, there is every reason to believe we will head back to that trend unless this disease has already been spread to a substantial enough percentage of the population to reduce future transmission (and that number would need to be well in excess of 10% - which would be a factor of 10 more than the confirmed cases in current hotspots like NYC and NOLA). But that is based on well-established principles of viral disease spread. You could educate yourself on such topics if you cared to.

The fact that we got close to, but didn’t yet exceed hospitalization capacity was also important (and is still important going forward), because what other countries have shown us is that if you exceed your health care capacity, the mortality rate goes way up (as much as a factor of 10).

[techman05]

Word I am hearing from multiple people in the trenches dealing with the virus in various states is that we do not have near the shortfall of beds that was predicted. 65% of all hospital beds are dedicated to surgical patients. The percentage of beds being used for that right now is close to single digits. All those beds are available for Covid patients if needed. Medical supplies is a different and real issue.

[eagle2180]

Data scientists don’t always get to pick their data sets. It isn’t always standardized. The world is messier than that. You work with the data you have. You have to link the data to other principles. In this case we can see the effect of curve flattening in transmission (new cases) in real time. We can see the echo of changes in transmission in new deaths. The difference in the exponential growth before that inflection and the linear decay after suppression was instituted tells you a lot. Deaths doubling every 4 days was the initial trend - you get to hundreds of thousands in less than a month if you stay on that trend. We are now off that trend.

If we don’t maintain social distancing, there is every reason to believe we will head back to that trend unless this disease has already been spread to a substantial enough percentage of the population to reduce future transmission (and that number would need to be well in excess of 10% - which would be a factor of 10 more than the confirmed cases in current hotspots like NYC and NOLA). But that is based on well-established principles of viral disease spread. You could educate yourself on such topics if you cared to.

The fact that we got close to, but didn’t yet exceed hospitalization capacity was also important (and is still important going forward), because what other countries have shown us is that if you exceed your health care capacity, the mortality rate goes way up (as much as a factor of 10).

So it’s a guess, a gamble? Much like real life. No one really knows or can predict the outcome? A man that has know faith in God has made a god of Dr.’s and data. I find it ironic.Does anyone else?

[eagle2180]

faith

►

• n.
  The assent of the mind to the truth of a proposition or statement for which there is not complete evidence; belief in general.
• n.
  Specifically Firm belief based upon confidence in the authority and veracity of another, rather than upon one's own knowledge, reason, or judgment; earnest and trustful confidence: as, to have faith in the testimony of a witness; to have faith in a friend.
• n.
  In a more restricted sense: In theology, spiritual perception of the invisible objects of religious veneration; a belief founded on such spiritual perception.