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New cases are increasing, meaning while New York is getting fewer new cases per day, the rest of the country is getting more new cases per day.Originally Posted by eagle2180
The country as a whole has a R0 of 1.1, while New York is less than 1.
As we lift lockdowns, the R0 will go up (unless everyone wears masks and practices social distancing). Japan achieved a very low R0 with just masks and distancing without any lockdown.
I'm sure you can verify the accuracy of all the data.
Well, gotta hand it to 'em for trying. Inmates in LA County prison (think that's right) were sharing bottles of water in hopes of contracting the virus so they would be released. The sheriff said it wasn't gonna work. Well, why not, didn't Gov. Newsome order inmates turned loose on the streets to wreak havoc if they tested positive for C-19! And BTW how come inmates can get tested while most of the masses cannot?
There is no evidence of systemic overcounting, and the experts think that to the extent the numbers are wrong it is from undercounting.
Yes there is. Any state at or near the 100% mark we discussed last week is over reporting if the normal death count is the same as usual. Louisiana is the most glaring example
What are you talking about? I showed you that on a weekly basis deaths are way up on the weeks of high COVID deaths (for example, in weeks that Louisiana posted more than 250 COVID deaths, the percentage of expected deaths were significantly up). Did you not look at that?
The entire period is what needs to be considered, not weeks or days. Bottom line: The overall death count is not up in those (100%) states because deaths that are normally listed as natural causes are labeled China Virus.
Why would you include weeks where hardly anyone died of COVID? Those number show that, in general, deaths for the year were trending lower than average year prior to COVID.
Why would you label deaths that would have happened without the china virus "death by china virus"? Heart failure...death by china virus. Kidney failure...death by china virus. Old age...death by china virus.
They aren’t. They are only labeling it COVID when COVID causes or contributes to the death. We all are going to die at some point, based on your logic, why would we count any COVID death?
The data shows clearly higher than expected death rates in Louisiana for the weeks that many people died of COVID. For the rest of the year so far, and weeks with small numbers of COVID deaths, 2020 has been tracking lower than average (but probably not outside the range of normal variability). It really isn’t that hard to understand the data in this case.
CDC has updated the numbers some more.
For Louisiana:
Week ending 3/28: 159 COVID deaths, 125% of expected
4/4: 308, 132%
4/11: 356, 150%
4/18: 267, 122%
For weeks earlier in the year, before any COVID deaths the numbers range anywhere from 96% to 109%, indicating that anywhere between 90-110% of expected deaths is likely to occur just to natural variability.
800 of 2300 deaths in Orleans/Jefferson...35%. This plus a few nursing home clusters that are probably legit.
There's most of it. Add a few more that are questionable in every parish and the numbers are padded accordingly.
Another 3 million newly unemployed.
Hooray! let's cheer on all this misery! We'll get that Orange Man out of the White House for sure! But, we have to keep things locked down...if we allow the economy to fully reopen, Bam! it'll be roaring by the fall and we can't have that, eh.
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