Presidential Election 2020

[weunice]

A quick note on polls ... I read recently that Republicans are very confident (some more confident than 2016) in spite of poll numbers in swing states showing there might be a problem. The reason? The 2016 election showed that Trump supporters disproportionately hang up when called for polling. This results in an oversampling of Democrats. Also, some people simply lie when polled. The article quoted someone as stating that they actually answered the opposite of what they really believed to throw the pollsters because "they didn't like some of the questions they were asking me".

In a data driven world your decisions are only as good as your data quality. That makes political polling a hard business to be in right now.

The polls don't look great for Trump. 538 does a good job of aggregating all of the incoming poll data.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

The second thing driving confidence is the expectation of a revival in the economy leading INTO the election. We will see if that confidence is founded.

[PawDawg]

...which is why all the haters are hoping for another wave of China Virus

[dawg80]

...which is why all the haters are hoping for another wave of China Virus

And more riots...and maybe even killer hornets!

[TYLERTECHSAS]

I totally agree. And Newt is almost always right.

Newt Gingrich: If Biden, Pelosi and Schumer are in charge in 2021 get ready for this nightmare.



https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/bide...newt-gingrichI

[TYLERTECHSAS]

I totally agree. And Newt is almost always right.

Newt Gingrich: If Biden, Pelosi and Schumer are in charge in 2021 get ready for this nightmare.



https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/bide...newt-gingrichI

If liberal Dems win this Nov. our country will look like the movie ‘Idiocracy’ with those idiots in charge.

[FriscoDog]

I think this really surprised Van Jones..

Van Jones revisits three Trump voters as nation grapples with unrest



In the wake of Donald Trump's surprise election win in 2016, CNN's Van Jones went on a journey of discovery across America to understand why voters sent Trump to Washington.

Today, as the country wrestles with the death of George Floyd in police custody, the protest movement that grew from it, and the national conversation about race that is reverberating in every corner of American life, Jones revisited three of those voters who backed Trump in 2016 to see how they are experiencing this moment in history.


3 people who voted for Obama, 2 life long democrats.. all 3 plan to vote for Trump again in November.


https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/19/polit...ers/index.html

[Guisslapp]

If liberal Dems win this Nov. our country will look like the movie ‘Idiocracy’ with those idiots in charge.

Trump is definitely the Idiocracy president.

[dawg80]

Kamala Harris, who thinks she will be VP-nominee, win, and after Biden trips down some stairs and breaks his neck (with a push...) will be POTUS is not only threatening, but promising "to hunt down" all those who have supported Trump.

On a political blog I follow her supporters are saying, well, fair is fair, Trump went after all of Obama's supporters....he did? When? How? Someone on the blog posted how it was the obummers who tapped Trump's phone and their flunkies in the DOJ/FBI went after Trump with the whole fake dossier scam. No sensible reply to that comment other than, well, Comey and them were just trying to protect our country from Trump. At least one lefty admits the whole Russia thing was a contrived hoax, even if he offers a weak justification for it.

As for Ms. Harris, it's so easy to spout bullshit when she knows she won't have to back it up.

[johnnylightnin]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/fivethi...disappear/amp/

[dawg80]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/fivethi...disappear/amp/

Polls are polls...at best they are a snapshot of those polled that day. Many of the polls survey something like 1,200 people and using some preconceived formula, based on demographics of those polled, they project results. That is not to say polls aren't or can't be somewhat indicative of current views...provided those polled are honest. It's the overall trends across many polls and consistency of the results that bears meaning. I agree, right now, Biden is leading in the polls, and doesn't really matter if his lead is 10 pts or 8 or 4 or 12! because you only have to win by 0.1% in key states to be elected.

Trump needs, again, to reel in the rhetoric and focus on the great things he has done. He has to toot his own horn because the lamestream media certainly won't. But, he has to do it in a politically "correct" manner. Just stay focused on the facts...historic lows in unemployment, the new trade deals, etc...that is what Americans want to hear. That said, we all know that about 85-90% of the voters have already made up their minds, some for Trump, some for Biden, and nothing either candidate does will change that. It's that remaining 10-15% and those in the battleground states who will ultimately determine the next POTUS.

[PawDawg]

Carville says he'd vote for Biden if he picked Sarah Palin as a running mate. That's a good one.

[FriscoDawg]

With any poll at this stage and based on the numerous polling inaccuracies of 2016, look at the quoted margin of error and follow the rules below. These rules are based on several factors:
--Biased sample of significantly more Dimms (55%-60%) than Republicans (25%-30%) in most polls with the other 20% being independents.
--It was proven four years ago that a significant percentage of Trump supporters misreport their support to pollsters
--Current polls are of registered voters and are much less reliable than likely voter polls conducted closer to election day.
--Only state polls matter since national results are irrelevant.

If Biden leads by more than 2 times the margin of error, subtract 1-1.5 times the margin of error from his lead.
If Biden leads by 1.01 to 2 times the margin of error, it is actually a toss-up.
If Biden leads by up to the margin of error, Trump is actually leading by about half the margin of error.
If Trump leads by any margin, add the margin of error to his lead.

[dawg80]

Plus Biden has gotten a free ride thus far. His own campaign managers have said they wish he could continue to hide out in his basement. They know what will happen once he's turned loose and the gaffes begin pouring forth. Did y'all know that C-19 has already killed 120 million Americans? That combined with the 150 million deaths caused by guns over the past few years doesn't leave many Americans alive. To that Biden says that is why we need open borders to replace the 270 million citizens lost!

Trump will rip him apart in the debates. But, more than that, Trump's incredibly impressive record of success on behalf of our nation and the average American will heavily influence voters. Biden is a loser, and he will make the USA a loser too.

[FriscoDog]

The real election cycle is just getting started. Biden has not even been told who his VP is going to be (like Biden was going to get to pick it anyway). Three debates have been scheduled. Biden's dementia will be even more evident when this happens. Vast Vast Vast majority of Americans do not like, support, or stand with the CHOP, CHAZ, and Antifa, groups that have become the thugs of the democrat party. Trump just has to make the easy connection of defund the police to the democrats and socialism and case closed.

[glm47]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/fivethi...disappear/amp/

That’s your boy.