Covid - 19

[Guisslapp]

The experts stated it was Dr Frankenstein Fauci that drove it down.

No they didn’t. We watched the market go down last night well before Fauci spoke. If the selling had anything to do with a vaccine, which I really don’t think it did, this would be a classic “sell the news” event. The smart money doesn’t buy on that type of announcement.

The real reasons the market sold off are obvious to us capitalists and they showed up over the past 10 days - RSIs well in overbought conditions in the relatively small number of companies moving the market higher, huge runs in TSLA and APPL after the stock splits, and most importantly huge upticks in the ratio of call options to folks that were long the underlying stock and divergence in the cost of puts relative to calls causing the VIX and VXX to spike. This move was coming and was signaled.

[PawDawg]

The real reasons the market sold off are obvious to us capitalists and they showed up over the past 10 days - RSIs well in overbought conditions in the relatively small number of companies moving the market higher, huge runs in TSLA and APPL after the stock splits, and most importantly huge upticks in the ratio of call options to folks that were long the underlying stock and divergence in the cost of puts relative to calls causing the VIX and VXX to spike. This move was coming and was signaled.

You omniscient "capitalists" in the stock market should be set financially now.

[Guisslapp]

You omniscient "capitalists" in the stock market should be set financially now.

The capitalists are certainly doing better than the proletariat, but that is because capital assets have been inflated. The Fed has increased the money supply 20% since the end of 2019 and with interest rates near zero, the NPV of a dollar earned today Is not much different than the NPV of a dollar earned 20 years from now.

That is a big part of why 2 years ago you could pay $18 for a dollar of Apple Earnings (trailing basis) and $40 for a dollar of earnings now.

People are willing to pay more for that share of earnings, but the earnings numbers are not going up nearly as fast as what people are willing to pay for it.

Sure it is nice to see that the market is willing to pay more for your ownership interest in the companies you own, but it would be much much better if the ownership interest was becoming more valuable because the company is proportionally increasing its earning power.

It is this massive amount of Fed liquidity that is pumping up the stock market. Are you happy about having to pay more for less earnings power? Would you rather get a dollar back every year from a capital investment of $15 or $20, all else being equal?

[dawg80]

I think the market is over-bought. There is a bubble that has to pop, sooner or later. But, I don't think it'll be a massive explosion(or implosion). When this China virus crisis hoax passes, and it will eventually, the economy will recover and the US is poised to lead the world back into prosperity. Individual stocks (companies) are artificially over-priced, inflated, and they will lead the downward correction. But, overall the US economy is strong and with proper leadership, Trump in the WH and hopefully a cooperative Congress, we will bounce back quickly.

I have some losers in my portfolio right now, amongst many more winners, and am riding it out. Fortunately, I don't need any of the money I have invested in the market...not that I want to lose it all! But I can afford to play it out and see what develops. As my CPA reminds me, losers are good. Can sell those clunkers in the same tax year I sell the big winners to offset the tax ramifications. Gotta love accountants, eh.

[Guisslapp]

I generally agree. And lots of people aren’t that interested in selling their overvalued stocks right now because there is no other good place to put the capital...unless you are just planning to put cash on the sidelines betting that you will be able to buy in cheaper.

[dawg80]

I generally agree. And lots of people aren’t that interested in selling their overvalued stocks right now because there is no other good place to put the capital...unless you are just planning to put cash on the sidelines betting that you will be able to buy in cheaper.

Taking a cash position is a good, a very good, strategy right now. I would recommend doing that if you are someone who is younger and still building your wealth. For me, I am set for life. Unless I get stupid and buy $million mansions and yachts! I can't possibly spend the money I am currently liquid in. So, I am I too lazy (yes, lazy) to take the prudent steps to closely examine my portfolio and take profits, get cash, and then buy back in after the correction. However, as I said, someone in their 30's, 40's and still building wealth, should do so.

I need to do two things: 1) get active again in the market, and 2) dust off my golf clubs and start playing regularly again. I used to be pretty good. But, right now, I will finish my coffee and plan to go meet contractors today to continue the restoration of my properties...

[DawgyNWindow]

https://www.wbir.com/article/news/investigations/shelby-county-woman-died-6-months-ago-letter-covid-19-positive/522-bcd8c6e1-5d75-4e07-af99-ed7babed909b

Maybe they should get the CDC to count all these mail-in votes. They've done a bang up job with their Covid statistics.

[PawDawg]

https://www.wbir.com/article/news/investigations/shelby-county-woman-died-6-months-ago-letter-covid-19-positive/522-bcd8c6e1-5d75-4e07-af99-ed7babed909b

Maybe they should get the CDC to count all these mail-in votes. They've done a bang up job with their Covid statistics.

true

[FriscoDog]

Collin County TX Audit of Covid 19 cases.

https://experience.arcgis.com/experi...e1c812e29d6cde

[CARTEK]

...and you are surprised why?

[dawg80]

George Carlin...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7W33HRc1A6c

[Russdawg]

George Carlin...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7W33HRc1A6c

Good stuff, thanks.

[TYLERTECHSAS]

George Carlin...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7W33HRc1A6c

Nice!

[dawg80]

Saw a headline, and read the by-lines, that Sturgis is expected to produce 266,000 new cases of the China virus. I did not read the article. How did they arrive at the 266K number? Is that the number of bikers who attended the rally and now someone assumes every one will be infected? What about the 9 Antifa thugs? Will they be infected too?

Well...if it is true, and happens, it won't be pretty for the bikers. Most are obese, older, out-of-shape smokers/drinkers. With 266K Harleys off the roads though, it'll sure be a lot quieter out on the highways. Maybe we can actually enjoy peace and quiet in a national park somewhere...hear the birds rather than the loud pipes of the bikes. Always looking for that silver lining, ya know.

[johnnylightnin]

Trump admits to Woodward that he intentionally downplayed COVID.