Presidential Election 2020

[TYLERTECHSAS]

😁

President Donald Trump now leads Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden in the national popular vote by one point, according to the Sunday Express/Democracy Institute Poll released on Sunday.

The poll found that 46 percent of likely voters nationwide support Trump while 45 percent support Biden.

The poll of 1,500 likely voters was conducted between September 30 and October 2 and has a margin of error of 2.5 percent, which means the results indicate a statistical tie between Trump and Biden. The poll surveyed voters in the wake the first presidential debate between Trump and Biden on September 29. Trump announced that he tested positive for Chinese coronavirus in the early hours of Friday, October 2, the last day of the poll.

With four weeks and two days until the November 3, 2020, general election, the poll results provide encouraging news to the Trump campaign after the announcement early Friday morning that the president had been diagnosed with Chinese coronavirus and is currently hospitalized and being treated at Walter Reed Hospital.


More

https://www.breitbart.com/2020-elect...-popular-vote/

[dawg80]

I do not have one Trump flag or sticker.. I do have an American Flag flying outside my house.. I guess that's enough to say who I am voting for.

Yes it is!

[Guisslapp]

GS says a blue wave in November would improve their economic forecasts.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/...-10-1029649255

[dawg80]

GS is full of BS

[inudesu]

I can't possibly see how Trump can lose in an honest election.

Really?

I mean, your reasoning is that among his supporters he is very popular, and I agree that his big fans are unsettlingly and uncritically all-in. But the level of opposition has to be among the highest you've ever seen as well. Not to mention the wobbly, begrudging support from the "voting against Hilary" people. In any case, that's all anecdotal, right?

He's behind in most polls (other than the ones Tyler posts from, let's say, somewhat less than neutral sources). He didn't win popular vote last time. His overall popularity has consistently polled pretty low.

I'm not saying he won't win. That's certainly a possibility. But "can't possibly see how Trump can lose" is a surprising stance. He's predicted to lose.

[dawg80]

I have posted many times, had Biden been the Dem nominee in 2016 he would have won...and probably fairly easily. There was a HUGE anti-Killary vote and anti-Killary, "I am gonna stay home and not vote" movement. This was enough to switch several states in the so-called "blue wall" to Trump. Krooked Killary was rejected by Americans, and thank God for that.

But, that was then, this is now. The ONLY wildcard is how much confidence do the "about 15% of the voting populace" have that Biden is truly more a moderate and won't be yanked to the extreme left by Sanders(Soros), Inc.? That 15% of voters are spread across about 5 or 6 battleground states, and they will decide this election. If enough think Biden is in charge and will reject the more radical leftist policies, he will win their votes, those states, and the election.

If Biden wins, it will be a sad day for America and for the free world. But, we have survived trying times before...hell, we just survived 8 years of obummer! The truth is The Swamp will be saved with a Biden win, and The Swamp wants status quo, and that means they will not tolerate this country being dragged too far left.

As for the election, well, to win Trump needs a landslide at the polls to overcome the cheating the Dems will do. I just don't see that happening. If anything the REAL vote will be close and that means the Dems will be able to easily cheat enough to change the results in key states. It's also a possibility, given what the 15% key voters do, this election won't be very close...if they over-whelmingly swing one way or the other. More likely, though, those 15% voters will go about 55-45 for one of the candidates, leaving the overall results, nationwide, fairly close.

The polls are mostly useless. That was proven in 2016. But, what is a reality in 2020 is there is a strong anti-Trump vote pending. It would be stupid to cite the 2016 anti-Killary vote as a reason for those results and then brush off the same phenomenon in 2020. It is a real factor.

If I had to bet, and I won't! as it stands right now, I would predict a Biden win.

[weunice]

I am closer to you Dawg80 than the others. I am different in that I think polling and predictive methodologies improve when they encounter unexpected things like what happened in 2016. The only reason to completely throw out the polls is to support the narrative that Trump is winning. He likely isn't and this election is likely already won for Biden for most of the reasons you spelled out above. Louisiana, Texas, the south and Trump country are not deciding this election. Lawn signs in the midwest are not determining this election. The blue wall states are and Trump is polling very well in those states. That does not bode well for camp Trump.

[FriscoDog]

Really?

I mean, your reasoning is that among his supporters he is very popular, and I agree that his big fans are unsettlingly and uncritically all-in. But the level of opposition has to be among the highest you've ever seen as well. Not to mention the wobbly, begrudging support from the "voting against Hilary" people. In any case, that's all anecdotal, right?

He's behind in most polls (other than the ones Tyler posts from, let's say, somewhat less than neutral sources). He didn't win popular vote last time. His overall popularity has consistently polled pretty low.

I'm not saying he won't win. That's certainly a possibility. But "can't possibly see how Trump can lose" is a surprising stance. He's predicted to lose.

I have no faith in the polls anymore, especially after 2016. All of the major pollsters had Hillary winning by double digits minimum. NYT had Hillary at 93% chance of winning day before election. Maybe the pollsters have figured it out this time around. I have never answered a poll either way, as I don't want to take the time. It's never just a simple one question poll.

[dawg80]

I am closer to you Dawg80 than the others. I am different in that I think polling and predictive methodologies improve when they encounter unexpected things like what happened in 2016. The only reason to completely throw out the polls is to support the narrative that Trump is winning. He likely isn't and this election is likely already won for Biden for most of the reasons you spelled out above. Louisiana, Texas, the south and Trump country are not deciding this election. Lawn signs in the midwest are not determining this election. The blue wall states are and Trump is polling very well in those states. That does not bode well for camp Trump.

I assume you meant to say Biden is polling very well...

Yeah, if one were to take the polls as Gospel, this race is over. If the polls prove to be correct this time, it'll be not only a popular vote win for Biden but an EC landslide. Some of polls focused along demographic lines, like age, have Biden leading something like 62-35% with very little undecideds. Even if you say, well, that poll has some error in it, and polls tend to under-capture Trump supporters, no way will that account for a nearly 30-point advantage. Polls are not off by such a margin.

Hopefully, the GOP can narrowly hold on to the Senate...that's the free world's only chance.

[johnnylightnin]

I have no faith in the polls anymore, especially after 2016. All of the major pollsters had Hillary winning by double digits minimum. NYT had Hillary at 93% chance of winning day before election. Maybe the pollsters have figured it out this time around. I have never answered a poll either way, as I don't want to take the time. It's never just a simple one question poll.

The polls were not that off in 2016: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ar...ts_132333.html

The final FiveThirtyEight poll was within 2% points of what the popular vote ended up being.

[inudesu]

I have no faith in the polls anymore, especially after 2016. All of the major pollsters had Hillary winning by double digits minimum. NYT had Hillary at 93% chance of winning day before election. Maybe the pollsters have figured it out this time around. I have never answered a poll either way, as I don't want to take the time. It's never just a simple one question poll.

I saw an interesting article recently about how relatively recent in our history halfway accurate polling even is - and therefore having one bad year doesn't mean the whole idea is flawed. I know that places like 538 that do the high level predicting have spent a lot of the last 4 years trying to improve their model (and I think they are percentage based anyway - they did give Trump a chance in the last election, it's just that it was like 30% or something). In our electoral college system national polls are all but useless, it seems like you need a system for compiling more local information into the bigger picture.

I think it's probably like vegas is for sports. They won't get it right all the time, but it's not a good idea to pick against them very often. In this case, I think Biden will win. But I also think Trump could win. I could see either outcome happening, and I think that despite what whichever side that loses will say, I think the elections here are generally aboveboard.

I wish we had a multi-party, tiered-voting system (which would really make these predictive polls tough), but we don't. And I suspect (as a non-expert) that the predictive modeling has improved over 2016 to the point of being much more accurate, which would place Biden squarely in the lead, but leave Trump plenty chance of winning as well.

[johnnylightnin]

I saw an interesting article recently about how relatively recent in our history halfway accurate polling even is - and therefore having one bad year doesn't mean the whole idea is flawed. I know that places like 538 that do the high level predicting have spent a lot of the last 4 years trying to improve their model (and I think they are percentage based anyway - they did give Trump a chance in the last election, it's just that it was like 30% or something). In our electoral college system national polls are all but useless, it seems like you need a system for compiling more local information into the bigger picture.

I think it's probably like vegas is for sports. They won't get it right all the time, but it's not a good idea to pick against them very often. In this case, I think Biden will win. But I also think Trump could win. I could see either outcome happening, and I think that despite what whichever side that loses will say, I think the elections here are generally aboveboard.

I wish we had a multi-party, tiered-voting system (which would really make these predictive polls tough), but we don't. And I suspect (as a non-expert) that the predictive modeling has improved over 2016 to the point of being much more accurate, which would place Biden squarely in the lead, but leave Trump plenty chance of winning as well.

And, for comparison, the away team in the NFL wins about 30% of time.

Here's 538 on the accuracy of the 2016 polling: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...are-all-right/

The issue with local polling is that it varies so much in quality and process. The national polling isn't super helpful...unless you get to a certain threshold where the national numbers are insurmountable.

[weunice]

Yes, FiveThirtyEight gave Trump a 29% chance last time. Their projection is 17% currently which is down from 33% at the end of August. Trumps support has fallen dramatically since the debate. People who think that Trump has this in the bag are deluding themselves.

Still 17% is possible but if you are a Biden fan or an anti-Trumper you have to feel pretty good right now.
You will note, that in 2016, Clinton was up to near 90% with a few months to go before the Trump train got rolling. I think folks are already decided. I see very few shifts at this point. If this election is a moratorium on Trump, people already know who he is and who they are pulling that lever for on election day.

Dawg80, yes I meant Biden in that previous post.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

[FriscoDog]

New Jersey postal worker arrested after discarding nearly 100 ballots

quote:

---

New Jersey postal worker arrested after allegedly discarding nearly 100 ballots
By Noah David Alter
October 7, 2020

A US Postal Service worker in New Jersey has been arrested after allegedly discarding nearly 100 mail-in ballots.

1,875 pieces of mail were retrieved from a dumpster in North Arlington and West Orange, New Jersey, on October 2nd and 5th according to ABC 7. Nicholas Beauchene, a 26-year-old from nearby Kearny, was charged with one count of obstruction of mail and another count of delay, secretion, or rejection of mail. The recovered pieces of mail included 99 ballots for the upcoming US Presidential election.
...

Beauchene, who faces up to five and a half years in prison and over $250,000 USD in fines if convicted on both counts, was the only mail carrier assigned to the addresses to which the recovered mail was addressed on the days they were to be delivered.

The discarded mail was discovered by New Jersey resident Howard Dinger, who said he found the mail in a dumpster behind a bank


This cannot be true.. CNN, MSNBC, Democratic Leadership and members on this board have assured us that this does not take place.

[Guisslapp]

New Jersey postal worker arrested after discarding nearly 100 ballots

quote:

---

New Jersey postal worker arrested after allegedly discarding nearly 100 ballots
By Noah David Alter
October 7, 2020

A US Postal Service worker in New Jersey has been arrested after allegedly discarding nearly 100 mail-in ballots.

1,875 pieces of mail were retrieved from a dumpster in North Arlington and West Orange, New Jersey, on October 2nd and 5th according to ABC 7. Nicholas Beauchene, a 26-year-old from nearby Kearny, was charged with one count of obstruction of mail and another count of delay, secretion, or rejection of mail. The recovered pieces of mail included 99 ballots for the upcoming US Presidential election.
...

Beauchene, who faces up to five and a half years in prison and over $250,000 USD in fines if convicted on both counts, was the only mail carrier assigned to the addresses to which the recovered mail was addressed on the days they were to be delivered.

The discarded mail was discovered by New Jersey resident Howard Dinger, who said he found the mail in a dumpster behind a bank


This cannot be true.. CNN, MSNBC, Democratic Leadership and members on this board have assured us that this does not take place.

What did we say doesn’t happen?