Stock Market- Investing

[dawg80]

Yeah I actually have physical gold and silver.. Obviously I don't have large gold bars ( 5 or 10 oz..) due to price. I do have larger silver bars.. For me, it's fun to have, and it is my safety net if the dollar loses it's value. I have smaller 1oz silver bars/coins and 1-10 gram gold and 1oz gold to use as currency if ever needed. It is not my primary retirement platform in any way.. it has always been something extra I've dabbled in..


ETA: I think the actor you are thinking of is William Devane..

Yes, Devane!

The 8.5 oz I inherited was in small bars, or really squares. They were in a strong box. I was shocked! none of my cousins bothered with it because most went to my grandparents' house before I did, and my Aunt Elaine was executor(executrix) of the estate and said take whatever you want, including furniture. My cousins were too busy fighting over the antique furniture and never bothered to look thru grandpa's stuff very closely. I also got a 1930's .38 special revolver. Thought I might need it to get out of the house with the gold, should the cousins find out what I had found...

[dawg80]

It isn’t really a question of “IF” the dollar is going to lose its value. It WILL because (for better AND worse) that is what Fed policy objectives require. Relative to other currencies, who knows?

If we successfully destroy the power of the US dollar, whether by making it more volatile than other competing currencies or by abusing it in foreign policy (I.e., sanctions for its use in connection with transactions with our enemies), that would become really big headwind to a US economy that has benefited from the dollar being the global reserve currency.

Alternative assets (precious metals, crypto, art, collectibles), kept in reasonable allocations (less than 10 percent total) are generally considered appropriate as part of a diversified portfolio. Of course, it trades off with productive assets (including those that can thrive in an inflationary environment), so you wouldn’t want to go overboard. Of course, YMMV...if your primary objective is capital preservation rather than growth or income, maybe you could justify a greater tilt to alternative assets.

Hearing some rumblings about governments banning cryptos so as to maintain a monopoly on currency. Some $billionaire named Dalio published an opinion piece on it, advocating for the US government to ban cryptos. I am guessing he missed the Bitcoin explosion and is just pissed off about it. FWIW, Mr. Dalio, I missed the Bitcoin ride too! But, I ain't whining about it...at least not publicly! Maybe he's just warning of the possibility, but I like to read between the lines.


Dalio sees 'good probability' bitcoin gets outlawed (yahoo.com)

[dawg80]

Warren Buffett wants you to use your $1,400 stimulus check this way (yahoo.com)

I like the idea in the last paragraph. That would be a very good saving/investing vehicle for young folks and those who lack the discipline to invest. I actually followed (invented???) a similar scheme that after some 20 years, without even trying or noticing, I had right at $30,000 cash!

[dawg80]

Penny stocks can be so much fun to buy/sell! But, only use money you can afford to lose.

[dawg80]

The economy is opening up as more and more areas relax restrictions on the China virus lockdown. This has meant a return toward full employment...and the unemployment rate is at 6%, so getting closer to the pre-China virus levels. This also means that the stock market will benefit too. Yeah, I know, it's not like it has been hurting, but it should climb when consumer-based companies, like the airlines, restaurants, and movie theatres see a return to capacities.

AMC will benefit greatly. It is a $20+ stock trading at around $9-10 right now. AND! there is the added bonus of the rumors of a short squeeze, ala Gamestop, pending.

[Guisslapp]

The economy is opening up as more and more areas relax restrictions on the China virus lockdown. This has meant a return toward full employment...and the unemployment rate is at 6%, so getting closer to the pre-China virus levels. This also means that the stock market will benefit too. Yeah, I know, it's not like it has been hurting, but it should climb when consumer-based companies, like the airlines, restaurants, and movie theatres see a return to capacities.

AMC will benefit greatly. It is a $20+ stock trading at around $9-10 right now. AND! there is the added bonus of the rumors of a short squeeze, ala Gamestop, pending.

The stock market is forward looking, so the reopening is largely priced in. The YOY comps this quarter are going to be super easy to beat. Easy money on the reopening has been made, but the market can keep grinding higher as long as the news remains positive, further removing risks that are baked in...yet the inflationary/interest rate risks still lurk in the abyss.

[dawg80]

Jim Cramer says retail investing has entered the dangerous "acceptance stage." Actually, he was referring to a specific sector of investors...those young, newbies, first-timers who used the stimmy from last fall to plunge into the market. A lot of pundits expected this third stimmy to help push the market further up...i.e. further inflate the bubble...but it hasn't manifested, at least not yet. Conservative predictions projected 10% of the total stimmy, $40 billion, to be invested. Nope! hasn't happened.

Cramer says the newbies have been hit over the head in a reality check, many bought trendy stocks at their peaks, and now are shocked by the declines. Cramer also predicts (and is hoping) platforms like Robinhood, Reddit, and Webull have run their course and are done. Cramer is one of those narcissistic "experts" who thinks only he knows best, and wants his show to remain popular (ratings). I know a lot of folks dislike Cramer...nothing but a know-nothing loudmouth...but I watch segments of his show, and when he's calm and professional appearing throughout the day on CNBC, he does offer some sound analysis on the market and individual equities.

Back to the issue...I predicted the newbies who chased quick returns in Gamestop and others would get clobbered and it would sour them on investing. There were also a record number of first-time minority investors, African Americans, who used some of their stimmy to open on-line brokerage accounts. I hope they were a little smarter than the 20-somethings who poured tons of money into those rockets, which have since fizzled. There are plenty of great investment stocks, divie-payers with long term growth potential and as safe as any equity can be. I have tried to steer some of those young investors towards some of those stocks, encouraging them to do some DD. In come cases those youngsters didn't find them "sexy" enough.

Oh, Cramer defines the "acceptance stage" as some realization that only Wall Street and the big guys can win in the market and small retail investors will always lose. I reject that notion. It just takes proper guidance.

[johnnylightnin]

I still can't believe Cramer gets paid. I've heard it described as financial pornography...pretty spot on.

[dawg80]

I still can't believe Cramer gets paid. I've heard it described as financial pornography...pretty spot on.

Some friends joke if Cramer says buy, they sell, and vice versa.

[dawg80]

COIN is going public with its IPO today...any takers?

[Guisslapp]

COIN is going public with its IPO today...any takers?

Probably not unless it opens at its reference price. Already long crypto so not as interested.

[Guisslapp]

Probably not unless it opens at its reference price. Already long crypto so not as interested.

Not surprisingly, COIN is indicating well above the reference price and is not likely to open for trading until this afternoon. I am not chasing.

[dawg80]

Not surprisingly, COIN is indicating well above the reference price and is not likely to open for trading until this afternoon. I am not chasing.

I think, may be wrong, that it will generally follow the Facebook IPO opening. At $250 it is over-valued, that implies a $65 billion valuation and it's really a $20 billion company with only a short-term moat. Competitors will emerge and erode Coinbase's market share.

As for the IPO and the days/weeks to come, I think it will mirror FB. It will pop up...$300/share or whatever, and then plummet like a rock closer to its true valuation, $90ish per share. Then, it might trend up from there depending on its fundamentals and how well the company guards its moat.


On another note Bernie Madoff died in prison...good riddance.

[Guisslapp]

I think, may be wrong, that it will generally follow the Facebook IPO opening. At $250 it is over-valued, that implies a $65 billion valuation and it's really a $20 billion company with only a short-term moat. Competitors will emerge and erode Coinbase's market share.

As for the IPO and the days/weeks to come, I think it will mirror FB. It will pop up...$300/share or whatever, and then plummet like a rock closer to its true valuation, $90ish per share. Then, it might trend up from there depending on its fundamentals and how well the company guards its moat.


On another note Bernie Madoff died in prison...good riddance.

Right now first trade is indicating $355, which is north of 90 billion.

[Guisslapp]

Disruptive companies with enormous TAMs and a first mover advantage are so hard to value right.

Recent private trades in COIN valued the company at 100 billion.