Tech's best possible, REALISTIC conference movement

[HogDawg]

So what? It's not a football only conference.

Well...for God's sake, how many sports are played on Sunday anyway?

[HogDawg]

Football drives the bus on all of these realignment issues, but it's not the only thing that ever matters. The B12 schools are all similar schools -- solid, though not top 50, academic schools who are trying to improve their research footprint. Houston is still mostly a commuter school. There isn't much enthusiasm for adding them.

Even in terms of football -- TCU, Baylor and TTech have no real motivation to add another mouth to feed in terms of recruits in Texas. There are already five power five schools in the state--and two of them are super-powers. Why would they want to have to recruit against Houston as an equal?

For starters, access to 7.1 Million potential TV Viewers in the Greater Houston area (about twice the size of the entire state of Louisiana), and the TV dollars that come with that, which could drastically improve the value of the conferences TV contract. Good SWC history (yes, history matters). Good Basketball (Final Four team) in addition to decent football. Great athletic facilities. And GREAT geography. It's that simple. It's not difficult to see the pluses.

And while I'm no fan of Houston, you always have to ask yourself, COMPARED TO WHAT? No one else offers up that kind of geography. And it's not like we're talking about Rhodes scholars attending the other candidate schools either. Cincinnati has decent basketball, but none of the other. And Cincinnati is along way from Big XII country.

[HogDawg]

If leaders don’t matter, we would have been in the AAC years ago.

They do and we were saddled with no vision and failed to strike when the iron was hot.

Houston fumbled about 5 years ago with the Big12. They blew their chance.

Now, two of the 4 subcommittee for expansion members of the Big 12 are academics. No way Houston as a commuter school gets the kid.

FIM, your comment about poor leadership was made with ZERO explanation. So, I'd still like to know what --and who-- you were referring to when you made that comment about Houston's leadership. Do you have an example? You just threw it out there like we all knew what you were talking about.

The problem is, you throw comments out like that --without explanation-- and I don't know what you are talking about. For example, what event happened 5 years ago that caused you to say "Houston blew it" 5 years ago? I really don't now what you are referring to. Just looking for a LITTE BIT of color behind the snarky comment. Was there some specific event 5 years ago?

Lastly, does Houston really have worse academics than Memphis and UCF? I have no idea about Cincinnati .

[qng001]

Is associating with a school with good "academics" really that important in conference affiliation?

[PawDawg]

Well...for God's sake, how many sports are played on Sunday anyway?

The only other ones that might matter but especially MBB. WBB and baseball need lots of Sunday games

[HogDawg]

The only other ones that might matter but especially MBB. WBB and baseball need lots of Sunday games

I think that was only an issue for Tech this year in the NIT. I guess if we had made the CUSA Final, it would have been an issue then too.

[PawDawg]

I think that was only an issue for Tech this year in the NIT. I guess if we had made the CUSA Final, it would have been an issue then too.

When BYU was cut as a prospect the last time it was because BYU would not agree to ANY necessary Sunday games. This was a problem for the TV guys. Imagine having a Sunday game, any game, set for 12 months, but the team playing in that game is not available. They aren't great in Baseball, but that sport alone would be a nightmare for the Big12 to work around.

[Dawgonit]

Is associating with a school with good "academics" really that important in conference affiliation?

For presidents, definitely and little less so for many donors. Presidents and many donors live in the academic world more than athletics. If they see Rice or App St. as possibilities, they will instantly be attracted to Rice as they want to be grouped in with them and their prestige. Obviously AD's, donors and fans will sway the opinion but I think to presidents, many already have a bias towards certain universities.

[Bulldog Tom]

For anyone interested here is what the Big 12 will look like when everything shakes out. They will be a coast-to-coast conference, with a west and east division.

East division – West Virginia, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, UCF, Memphis, and Cincinnati.

West division – Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech, Houston, BYU, Boise State, San Diego State, and Colorado State.

In the west Arizona and Arizona State may replace San Diego State, and Colorado State. The remaining Big 12 Presidents are working their connections hard to get the Arizona schools. Seems Louisiana and Tech are out of the running. Just joking neither were ever in the running.

We could end up in the new AAC.

[HogDawg]

The New Big 12 Would Be Just As Good, Or Better, Than The Pac 12.....And The Numbers Prove it

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=blbvX5PaPM4


Somebody had to say it. This guy does a great job comparing the "New Big XII" to the ACC & the Pac 12. He respectfully takes Stuart Mandel to task for using bad info --or out of context info-- to spread bad information about the Big XII and some of the midwest schools.

[HogDawg]

For anyone interested here is what the Big 12 will look like when everything shakes out. They will be a coast-to-coast conference, with a west and east division.

East division – West Virginia, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, UCF, Memphis, and Cincinnati.

West division – Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech, Houston, BYU, Boise State, San Diego State, and Colorado State.

In the west Arizona and Arizona State may replace San Diego State, and Colorado State. The remaining Big 12 Presidents are working their connections hard to get the Arizona schools. Seems Louisiana and Tech are out of the running. Just joking neither were ever in the running.

We could end up in the new AAC.

16? Why would the new Big XII go to 16 and have to split the smaller pie so many more ways? I don't see this happening.

I think the Big 12 adds 4, and stop at 12. Most likely adds will be BYU, Houston, Cincinnati and UCF. Each has a strong case for receiving an invite. So, it will look like this:

East Division - West Virginia, Kansas, KSU, Iowa St, Cincinnati and UCF

West Division - Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech, OSU, BYU & Houston

I think that's a really good conference, and should open up 3 spots in the AAC, but only one in the "west".

Likely replacements for the AAC losses will be:

UAB - to replace UCF)
Marshall - to replace Cincinnati)
Rice (60% chance) or LA Tech (40% chance) - to replace Houston

And no, I don't like our odds since conference presidents typically love academic havens such as Rice. Furthermore, with Memphis being "left behind" in the AAC, it will be tougher for Tech to get in. But, I assume we hired "Dr Eric Wood" for a reason, and if anyone should have good connections in the AAC, it's him.

[HogDawg]

I think LA Tech's chances of getting an AAC invite increase exponentially, if Memphis is no longer a member. So, Tech fans would be wise to hope and pray Memphis gets picked by the NEW Big 12. And the only way I see that happening is if the Big 12 and BYU can't work out the "Sunday" thing.

[HogDawg]

I think LA Tech's chances of getting an AAC invite increase exponentially, if Memphis is no longer a member. So, Tech fans would be wise to hope and pray Memphis gets picked by the NEW Big 12. And the only way I see that happening is if the Big 12 and BYU can't work out the "Sunday" thing.

I just posted this on the CUSA Board.

IMO, the CUSA teams that will be targeted for membership by the new AAC will depend greatly on the geography of the AAC teams that are picked for the new Big 12, as well as the geography of the remaining teams left in the AAC.

I think the consensus is that likely Big 12 targets include Cincy, Houston, Memphis and UCF from the AAC. If those 4 teams are invited to the Big 12, likely replacements will be:


Cincy > Marshall
Houston > Rice
Memphis > LA Tech or USM (or most likely both, to get to 12)
UCF > UAB


That's 5 new teams to replace the 4 AAC teams that are leaving.


Most of the above CUSA schools have a previously established "conference relationship" with most of the "leftover AAC" teams, and they all have their own "market", not shared by any existing AAC team. These "candidate" CUSA teams are well known commodities to SMU, Tulsa, Tulane, and East Carolina. Not so much with Temple, Navy & USF. Back to the "geography".....I can't see the AAC adding a second team (e.g., ULL) in the same market (south Louisiana) that's already covered (Tulane). Likewise, SMU isn't going to want to share their Dallas market with UNT, etc... So, that leaves the NEW ACC looking like this:


The New AAC 12:


West:
SMU
Tulsa
Rice
Tulane
LA Tech
USM


East:
UAB
USF
Marshall
East Carolina
Temple
Navy

[FriscoDawg]

Why would the Big 12 bring in four more mouths to feed when their media rights revenue looks to drop as sharply as expected?

If they can get BYU and Cincinnati to say yes, I think they add those two and stop there at least in their initial expansion round.

[PawDawg]

BYU is not an option