Serious Conference Realignment Discussion

[Tech77]

Markets just don't seem like a big deal these days. Where did it get our conference adding all those big market schools and now the AAC is doing the exact same thing. What would be appealing about adding y'all from a financial point is how much cheaper travel would be for everybody and ticket sales would go up for everyone on the western side of the conference. I really believe Memphis will get invite to the Big 12 eventually. The have a ton of 💰 and some stroke with FEDEX being in their back pocket and a big market if that is important to the Big 12.

I think the AAC added 6 so they won’t have to react to losing one or two more.

[PawDawg]

FWIW we have always been able to claim, and rightfully so, both Monroe and Shreveport DMA.

[inudesu]

I'm terrible at predicting this stuff. I'm not sure it's ever all as logic-based as you'd hope. As skeptical as I am of the message board conspiracies and "mean old Tech hurt too many feelings" schadenfreude, I do think weird personal stuff sometimes plays a role. And I also think there is just way more going on behind the scenes for us plain ole fans to be able to guess well (past the blind squirrel finding the occasional nut level). I'm positive tv is pulling a lot of strings here, for one thing. And you'd hope the tv partners and school presidents also just have access to a lot more information than we do. But if I just had to guess, I'd expect NMSU + a bunch of FCS schools to be invited real soon. We'll limp along for a few years and then another shake up will happen and hopefully Tech moves to something similar to the new AAC or SB.

But even though I can't stand conspiracy theories - here is my galaxy brain (mostly tongue in cheek) hot take/prediction:

If the current G5 schools want to prevent splitting the (tiny) pie more ways, they can do that by making sure that CUSA goes away (by taking a few more/all left-over members). The schools leaving all have a big incentive to support this, they'd love to get out of those exit fees. But why would the MWC or the MAC or the 'Belt want to add more mouths to feed? Why split that tv money (such as it is) even farther? Because of the shared playoff money! That money is split by conference. Fewer conferences splitting the same amount of money = more money to distribute (even if you're dividing it farther within the conference). If they leave the 5 current CUSA teams alone - we just bring up more FCS teams. So then, even if they raid us again in a few years, CUSA carries on and that money is still split 5 ways. If the 'Belt goes to 16 by taking us and FIU, and the MAC takes WKU and MTSU (and if you wanted to really lock things down you could have the MWC take UTEP and NMSU, but I doubt that's necessary) then the path to FBS gets WAAAAAAAY harder and the schools that already made it in have more or less locked out the current FCS teams for a long time (they'd have to come up as a group, and that's going to take like decades, not years - I think the WAC would like to do this eventually).

Now this is tin-foil hat talk. Super unlikely (for a million reasons). But the idea of the other 4 conferences looking around now and going "hmm, if we split up the teams that are left, whether we really want them or not, we could maybe do our collective selves a favor here" is funny to consider.

[Amos Moses]

[revf]

I'm terrible at predicting this stuff. I'm not sure it's ever all as logic-based as you'd hope. As skeptical as I am of the message board conspiracies and "mean old Tech hurt too many feelings" schadenfreude, I do think weird personal stuff sometimes plays a role. And I also think there is just way more going on behind the scenes for us plain ole fans to be able to guess well (past the blind squirrel finding the occasional nut level). I'm positive tv is pulling a lot of strings here, for one thing. And you'd hope the tv partners and school presidents also just have access to a lot more information than we do. But if I just had to guess, I'd expect NMSU + a bunch of FCS schools to be invited real soon. We'll limp along for a few years and then another shake up will happen and hopefully Tech moves to something similar to the new AAC or SB.

But even though I can't stand conspiracy theories - here is my galaxy brain (mostly tongue in cheek) hot take/prediction:

If the current G5 schools want to prevent splitting the (tiny) pie more ways, they can do that by making sure that CUSA goes away (by taking a few more/all left-over members). The schools leaving all have a big incentive to support this, they'd love to get out of those exit fees. But why would the MWC or the MAC or the 'Belt want to add more mouths to feed? Why split that tv money (such as it is) even farther? Because of the shared playoff money! That money is split by conference. Fewer conferences splitting the same amount of money = more money to distribute (even if you're dividing it farther within the conference). If they leave the 5 current CUSA teams alone - we just bring up more FCS teams. So then, even if they raid us again in a few years, CUSA carries on and that money is still split 5 ways. If the 'Belt goes to 16 by taking us and FIU, and the MAC takes WKU and MTSU (and if you wanted to really lock things down you could have the MWC take UTEP and NMSU, but I doubt that's necessary) then the path to FBS gets WAAAAAAAY harder and the schools that already made it in have more or less locked out the current FCS teams for a long time (they'd have to come up as a group, and that's going to take like decades, not years - I think the WAC would like to do this eventually).

Now this is tin-foil hat talk. Super unlikely (for a million reasons). But the idea of the other 4 conferences looking around now and going "hmm, if we split up the teams that are left, whether we really want them or not, we could maybe do our collective selves a favor here" is funny to consider.

The problem with this is that you are using logic in a situation in which logic is rarely used. I mean the AAC just took North Texas to cover a market that is already covered by one of it's OWN schools! There is nothing logical about Conference Realignment. What drives it is money. Texas and OU bailing for the SEC was driven by money. The SEC adding these two basically takes the most valuable schools available, and creates a mammoth money making machine of a conference.

Then the PAC12 staying put, Big10, and ACC forming an alliance left the Big 12 on the outside. I seriously thought we were only going to wind up with a Power 4 out of this with the Power 4 all going to 16 teams and the leftovers being left out. Big 12 is hanging on by a thread right now on a wing and a prayer. Adding UCF, BYU, and Cincy won't last. NONE of those schools replace Texas or OU.

If the Big10/ACC takes WVU or Kansas/Kansas State, well all those other schools might also be on the outside looking in.

[inudesu]

The problem with this is that you are using logic in a situation in which logic is rarely used.

Well, I agree with this overall.

But I'd also add that my "plan" above where the other G5 conferences work together to eliminate CUSA (and reduce the odds of new FCS teams joining the top level of FBS football) isn't terribly logical. I can poke a lot of holes in it. I mean, I've seen worse realignment takes in my time, but it was meant to be mostly tongue in cheek.

[roughedge]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dThAswSABcg

Latest from the AD. Nothing new on conference.

[HogDawg]

Geeezz, why are you so mad? If you will just take your head out of your azzz, and read the opinion of all
Of the national media and others in the know, you will see that Louisiana and the Sun Belt Conference have indeed beat CUSA and el-aye-tech in this latest round of realignment! But don’t worry, I fully expect La Tech to now have a chance to win some games, and maybe even dominate the new CUSA 5.0 while Missouri State, McNeese, Sam Houston and Tarlington State (or something like that ?) get adjusted to the new CUSA!

LA Tech's always won games. From 2014 (when CUSA 3.0 was finalized) to 2021, LA Tech won more CUSA football games than any other team in CUSA.

[HogDawg]

You seriously think that the admin is bold, now that's funny.

[HogDawg]

I'm terrible at predicting this stuff. I'm not sure it's ever all as logic-based as you'd hope. As skeptical as I am of the message board conspiracies and "mean old Tech hurt too many feelings" schadenfreude, I do think weird personal stuff sometimes plays a role. And I also think there is just way more going on behind the scenes for us plain ole fans to be able to guess well (past the blind squirrel finding the occasional nut level). I'm positive tv is pulling a lot of strings here, for one thing. And you'd hope the tv partners and school presidents also just have access to a lot more information than we do. But if I just had to guess, I'd expect NMSU + a bunch of FCS schools to be invited real soon. We'll limp along for a few years and then another shake up will happen and hopefully Tech moves to something similar to the new AAC or SB.

But even though I can't stand conspiracy theories - here is my galaxy brain (mostly tongue in cheek) hot take/prediction:

If the current G5 schools want to prevent splitting the (tiny) pie more ways, they can do that by making sure that CUSA goes away (by taking a few more/all left-over members). The schools leaving all have a big incentive to support this, they'd love to get out of those exit fees. But why would the MWC or the MAC or the 'Belt want to add more mouths to feed? Why split that tv money (such as it is) even farther? Because of the shared playoff money! That money is split by conference. Fewer conferences splitting the same amount of money = more money to distribute (even if you're dividing it farther within the conference). If they leave the 5 current CUSA teams alone - we just bring up more FCS teams. So then, even if they raid us again in a few years, CUSA carries on and that money is still split 5 ways. If the 'Belt goes to 16 by taking us and FIU, and the MAC takes WKU and MTSU (and if you wanted to really lock things down you could have the MWC take UTEP and NMSU, but I doubt that's necessary) then the path to FBS gets WAAAAAAAY harder and the schools that already made it in have more or less locked out the current FCS teams for a long time (they'd have to come up as a group, and that's going to take like decades, not years - I think the WAC would like to do this eventually).

Now this is tin-foil hat talk. Super unlikely (for a million reasons). But the idea of the other 4 conferences looking around now and going "hmm, if we split up the teams that are left, whether we really want them or not, we could maybe do our collective selves a favor here" is funny to consider.

Hmmm. Perhaps you are smarter than you look.....

[HogDawg]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dThAswSABcg

Latest from the AD. Nothing new on conference.

Still doing everything in "secret"...LOL! Meanwhile 8 schools and counting have left CUSA. And they weren't near as quiet about it.

[Mad Italian]

Black Adder's cunning plan:

https://youtu.be/AsXKS8Nyu8Q

The administration at it's best.

[SouthernMiss3613]

Well they should have attempted to add both of us as they would never lose us. We are never getting in the Big 12. I am happy with the SB from a travel standpoint and y'all will eventually join too.

[SouthernMiss3613]

Well they should have attempted to add both of us as they would never lose us. We are never getting in the Big 12. I am happy with the SB from a travel standpoint and y'all will eventually join too.

This was in response to Tech77 above.

[boxerdog]

Well they should have attempted to add both of us as they would never lose us. We are never getting in the Big 12. I am happy with the SB from a travel standpoint and y'all will eventually join too.

I share this sentiment.