Last In 2022 Field Of 64 Projections: April 20 • D1Baseball 3 seed in Ft Worth
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Last In 2022 Field Of 64 Projections: April 20 • D1Baseball 3 seed in Ft Worth
I hate to see us on the "last 4 in" list!
At least we're currently included, #3 seed at TCU regional. Have to keep winning at a high rate. All we can do is win the games in front of us...starts tonight.
Tech's projected RPI on warrennolan.com today is 26. That would probably equate to a very low 2 seed or high 3 seed and nowhere near the last 4 in list. But the only way to get there and stay off any "last 4 in" (or worse) list is to get wins.
Hoping we can keep getting wins with only 8 batters.Originally Posted by FriscoDawg
This morning it's dropped to 39...
18 of our 26 OOC games are probably going to end up as Q4 games (basically 70% of our OOC schedule) which equates to a OOC SOS at 121...
Losing those 3 games is a killer right now
And we still host ULM, and got UALR and NWST - can't lose any of those
''Don't be a bad dagh..."
It’s all going to work out very nicely when we get the CUSA automatic bid by beating USM’s ass at ‘their‘ conference which obviously shouldn’t be.
Tech's predicted RPI is either at 48 or 53 depending on where you look on warrennolan.com. And as of right now there are 22 conference leaders out of the 31 conferences with an RPI lower than 45. Even with a 48 predicted RPI, Tech would probably only be on a Next 4 Out list.
To have any chance of improving that RPI, Tech needs to finish the regular season no worse than 12-3 to get to 40 wins by sweeping the three midweek games, winning the conference series at least by 2-1 at ODU, vs FAU, and at Charlotte, and sweeping the WKU home conference series.
Last edited by FriscoDawg; 04-26-2022 at 12:04 PM.
Unfortunately, that’s pretty much impossible. Historically Burroughs and Tech are known for late season slumps of sorts. In 2021 when we were notably a better team we went 8-7 in our last 15 games. The last 15 games this year will be a tougher task than they were last year. Where last year we had a tendency to come back late in games to win this year we choke up and fall short. We simply have too many weak links to try to overcome and the pressure is too much for the few better players to live up to.
This isn't past years. But if this year's performance does not exceed past performance, then this team won't be an NCAA tournament team. It's that simple.
My crystal ball says we’ll go 9-6 and finish 3 in the tournament. OBTW, in a rage, I just smashed my crystal ball.
LB “Skips” the tournament.
Six of the 15 games left are against RPI teams 219, 175, 222, and 3 against 229 with four of those six at home. Those need to be a clean sweep.
The other nine conference games will be no picnic with six of those on the road. 6-3 would be a very good record in those games. But that's what Tech needs to do along with getting to at least the final Saturday pool game in Hattiesburg to get off the wrong side of the bubble.
We still have ODU, FAU and UNCC left to go, with WKU as a must win. USM has UAB, ODU, UTSA, and MTSU. I still think it could be anyone's game, even in the tourney. But we have to keep winning. And honestly, it would be sad if only 2 teams got in from CUSA which is ranked the 5th toughest ELO in the nation after last year. FAU, UTSA, or ODU or even Charlotte could make a case.
Charlotte can't make a case right now with an 88 RPI. A 216 non-conference SOS just doesn't cut it (Tech's is at 79).
But Tech, MT, UTSA, and ODU are all in position to make cases with strong finishes down the stretch. Don't know if I can see 4 C-USA teams making it like last year, but 3 wouldn't be a stretch if the resumes improve enough.
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