Russia

[dawg80]

A moment of honesty...

During a weekly media show on Russian propaganda TV a panel of journalists comment on current affairs, much like some shows on various networks here. On the most recent show the host, a Putin apologist/propagandist, read an official communique from the Kremlin to stop exaggerating Russia's successes in the war in Ukraine. For instance, recently Russian networks were echoing the claim that 26,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed and over 1,200 Ukran tanks and other armored vehicles have been destroyed since the June 4 counter-offensive began. Such unrealistic reports, says the Kremlin, only swells the populace's hopes and then leads to big disappointments when the truth is revealed.

So, the panel of media types started discussing this issue. They were going around the table asking for comments when they got to this one fellow. He kind of mumbles, "Stop reporting unrealistic results from the war?" he pauses and then adds, "That's all we have." BAM!!!

Can you imagine a similar media panel on CNN or MSNBC discussing the unrealistic reporting on the Bidens, and Joe's presidency, and one libtard saying, "That's all we have."? Hah! that dude/dudette would be fired by whichever propaganda network or newspaper they worked for the next day.

[dawg80]

US has bought back Hawk anti-aircraft missiles from Taiwan to the tune of $2.1 billion and is transferring them to Ukraine. Report didn't give a number.

The Hawk missile system was developed by Raytheon and is old technology, dating back to 1960. The Hawk system has seen many upgrades over the years but is still basically 1960's tech. Taiwan phased the Hawks out in favor of their own new anti-aircraft missiles developed and manufactured domestically. Taiwan is quickly becoming one of the leaders in weapons' development and production. Spain had sent all of their moth-balled Hawks to Ukraine and they have proven to be very effective, especially against Russian helicopters and drones. Although they have also downed some Russian fighter-bomber jets too. The US asked Israel to donate their retired Hawks to Ukraine, but the Israelis refused saying the Hawks are still a viable weapon system and they are holding them in reserve. So! the Biden admin bought Taiwan's supply.

[dawg80]

It's World War I in the technological age. Solution: tactical nukes.

This is what a source of mine, a recently retired army colonel, says. The situation in Ukraine (Donbas) has descended into a virtual stalemate where the defenders enjoy an enormous advantage over the attacking side. This is what happened in WWI in "trench warfare." There is a YouTuber who has produced excellent 3D animated videos showing how extensive and formidable the Russian defenses are. Layer upon layer of trenches, minefields, tank traps and all covered by literally thousands of artillery batteries and rocket launches, patrolled by drones that can spot and target moving vehicles and groups of infantry. The Russians have an incredible trenching machine, it's a combination excavator/earth mover and can dig a trench 15 feet wide and 6 feet deep in one pass and can build up to 5 miles of trench in one day. The Russians have been doing this for 10 months. The Ukrans tried to force their way through these defenses last month and failed, suffering losses. They have only reached the main line of Russian defenses in one place. Right now, they are still battling through Russian outer defenses and making slow progress.

So, what is a solution? Tactical nukes is one possible solution. Used to utterly destroy a large segment of the defenses and have a huge mobile force ready to rush through the gap and get behind the formidable defenses. Of course, this would open pandora's box and the defending side could use tactical nukes to destroy the attacking units. To try to do the same thing with conventional weapons is possible but would take an enormous concentration of artillery/missile launchers and most importantly, air attacks.

The "world" would like the two sides to agree to a cease-fire and some kind of negotiated settlement. It's clear Putin's evil scheme of taking over eastern Europe has failed and will never happen. It's also getting clearer that President Z's desire to retake all of Ukraine, Donbas and Crimea, is starting to fade into a pipe dream, it's not going to happen. A regime change in Russia could lead to a settlement that would include Ukraine getting Donbas back, but it is VERY doubtful the Russians will be willing to give up Crimea. There is too much at stake for Russia in Crimea. The Russians have two warm-water ports, one in Kalingrad (sp?) on the Baltic Sea, and the other Sevastopol, Crimea on the Black Sea. Sweden, Finland, Poland, and Livonia all have their eyes on Kalingrad and that is making Putin et al very nervous. More to come on that!

So, in the meantime, the grind continues in eastern Ukraine, the war drags on. It could last for a decade or more, and probably will in some capacity even after it is no longer world "news." Trump claims he can bring the matter to a close in 48 hours. I say let's elect Trump and give him a chance to do that!

CORRECTIONS: It's Kaliningrad, and it's Lithuania with an interest in it, not Livonia.

[dawg80]

"War is hell" is what General William T. Sherman told a gathering of West Point cadets years after the Civil War. Actually, this is not his actual quote, but it has been shortened to that over time. His actual statement was: "You boys think war is all glory, but really, war is all hell." General Sherman would know. And, he was right.

YouTube has a censoring policy to blur out any graphic images and that has certainly been true of the videos on the war in Ukraine. There is a ton of footage shot from drones of up-close images of the brutality of war. But, there are also ways to get around the YouTube censors if one is a mind too. One channel called Kanal13 posts videos that exist for up to 24 hours before the YouTubers either remove it or apply the blurring techniques to it. I do not recommend it to anyone with a weak stomach.

One video posted this morning showed a Russian tank with about 8 soldiers hitching a ride. A Ukran drone spotted it, and a kamikaze drone went in for the kill. I won't get graphic here, suffice it to say the 4-man tank crew and the 8 riders were all killed, and it was brutal. War is hell.

"It is good that war is so terrible, else we might grow too fond of it." - General Robert E. Lee while viewing the aftermath of the Battle of Fredericksburg, December, 1862.

[dawg80]

The Kerch Bridge has been struck again. Last night a huge explosion rocked one of the spans and the bridge is currently closed to traffic. Reported that two people were killed, and a separate report says a child was killed as well. Unconfirmed. The Putinites blame the Ukrans, and it is likely they are responsible for the attack, but so far Kyiv has not responded.

The Kerch Bridge is a mammoth structure. Twin spans one with 4 lanes and the other a train trussell with two traffic lanes, built on huge concrete pillars. A modern, well-engineered steel and concrete structure. But, it is a bridge over deep water, the Kerch Strait, connecting Crimea to Russia. All it takes to render it useless is to create a gap (on both spans). Don't have to destroy the whole structure, just one (2) section of it.

There is video of last night's massive explosion. Whoa! Russians say it was a Ukran "water drone" i.e. a remote-controlled speed boat packed with explosives. But, it appears to me the explosion was on the deck of the bridge, the travel surface, and that indicates a regular drone attack, from the air.

[dawg80]

Whether Kyiv had anything to do with this attack on the bridge, or not, the Russkies are blaming them. So, in retaliation for what the Russkies claim was a Ukran "terrorist" attack, they have sunk a jet ski.

...they have sunk a jet ski.

Let that resonate for a moment.

A jet ski was seen floating slowly toward the Kerch Bridge in the immediate aftermath of the recent attack. The vaunted Russians in an act of defiance and military prowess fired well over 1,000 rounds from various automatic cannons, ranging from 20mm up to 75mm and finally hit and destroyed the terrifying assault jet ski. Good job! Only...the jet ski is said to have belonged to a group of Russian tourists who are vacationing at a resort on the Black Sea and the jet ski slipped its mooring two days ago and has been drifting at sea. Wonder if Putin will buy them a new one.

Speaking of Russian vacationers! A bunch of them got to enjoy a spectacle recently when a crippled Russian SU-25 fighter/bomber, trailing smoke, had to ditch in the water near a beach. The pilot knew he wouldn't reach his base and thought putting the broken jet down in the sea offered his best chance for survival. He did so within a 1/4 mile of the beach and was rescued by a group of tourists.

Just think what tales these Russian folks will have to tell their grandkids someday: a jet ski blown up by friendly fire, jets crashing near the beach, wow! Makes Disney sound boring.

[dawg80]

Pro-Putin sources claim Russians are ready to launch a massive offensive with 100,000 infantry, supported by 900 tanks.

I say BS to that. Even if Putin had such a force, he would do better to have them dig in and fight a defensive battle. Launching an assault exposes those units to minefields and accurate artillery and HIMARS attack.

Well, Kyiv is confirming Russian build up in the Kharkiv region. This is along the Russian border near Belgorod and north of the Bakhmut area.

[dawg80]

Sweden has sent their Stridsvagn 122 main battle tank to Ukraine and it has been deployed at company strength in the Ukran 21st Mechanized Brigade. The tank weighs 70 tons, can hit speeds of 42mph, carries a 120mm smoothbore main cannon, two 7.62mm machineguns, four grenade launchers, and is protected by 3rd generation composite armor. It is considered somewhat superior to Germany's Leopard 2 because of its electronics. It out-classes anything the Russians can put up against it. And apparently it has arrived just in time given the rumored Russian offensive.

[dawg80]

Except for another criminal terrorist attack against civilians by the evil Putinites, at Odessa, the last 48 hours have been relatively quiet. The Russians launched a missile attack against the port city of Odessa, including the use of CLUSTER BOMBS, which is nothing new for them. A Ukran army officer appeared on TV showing some unexploded cluster bomblets from 6 months ago near Kyiv. So, while the pussies of the world scream bloody murder about the prospects of the Ukrans using the weapon, please note Putin already has been using it. And they used it again in the recent attack on Odessa. The Russkies targeted commercial/industrial sites mostly hitting the wharf facilities and storage warehouses, but there are civilian workers there, including a large number of foreigners employed by the various shipping companies, and locals who are housed in apartment complexes in close proximity of the port. Several apartment buildings were struck by the barrage of missiles (cluster bombs) and women and children are among the casualties. Note how NOT A DAMN WORD is said about Putin's attacks against Ukrainian civilians. Nothing, zero, nada! Tucker Carlson in his ignorant rantings against the US involvement in this mess includes worries that Russian civilians might become targets. Oh my Tucker, really! Russian civilians MIGHT become targets, while for 18 months Ukrainian civilians continue to be. Hmmm....

But, at least there is one silver lining in this attack on Odessa. ALL the grain destroyed in the storage facilities was purchased by the Chicoms and was about to be shipped to China. Hah! that won't endear Putin to Xi, a rapidly disappearing ally.

Now Putin has issued a threat to attack any commercial shipping in the Black Sea not directly linked to Russia. Go ahead, Putin, do it. Maybe then even the goofy Tucker Carlson might turn against you. Or, probably not...Tucker will just blame the shipping companies for doing what they have been doing for decades and decades, international commerce.

[dawg80]

Ukraine uses cluster bombs for the first time in an attack against Russian defensive positions. Drone video is graphic but shows the attack was successful. War is hell.

The biggest argument against the use of cluster bombs is the residual effects of unexploded bomblets laying around so later, after the war is over, civilians might step on one and get killed/hurt. Our cluster bombs are well made, and it's been proven that only about 1% of the bomblets fail to detonate when deployed. Contrast that to other nations', for instance Russian cluster bombs where up to 14% of the bomblets fail to detonate and then pose a problem later. Yet, no one, not one single person, has voiced protests against Putin using them. But, if that is the concern then HELLO! what about the millions of landmines that have been put out!? Just saw where a North African fellow was killed when he stepped on a mine placed by the Germans in 1942!

It would be far better for everyone if people would not place such dangerous devices all over the place because folks wouldn't go to war. Dream on...

Not much movement along the front in the past 24 hours. The Russians launched a counter-attack and regained some lost ground north of Bakhmut, but it was a single strip of woods. South of Bakhmut the Ukrans are making slow but steady progress. Since June 4 they have captured a chunk of ground 12 miles long by 3 miles deep. Most importantly that included taking a ridge that dominates the area. Russian artillery and occasional air strikes, plus the millions of mines the Russians have deployed, is slowing the Ukran advance. The Russians do have good artillery and plenty of it.

Confirmed report of the US Bradley Fighting Vehicle has been released. We sent 190 Bradley's to Ukraine and they are being used in the worst of the fighting combat zones. So far 10 Bradley's have been damaged, either by a mine or artillery, 2 have been knocked out and the other 8 are being repaired and are expected to return to action. The Ukrans love the Bradley's because they are saving lives! Most other vehicles would have been totally destroyed and the crew killed.

[dawg80]

Pro-Putin sources claim Russians are ready to launch a massive offensive with 100,000 infantry, supported by 900 tanks.

I say BS to that. Even if Putin had such a force, he would do better to have them dig in and fight a defensive battle. Launching an assault exposes those units to minefields and accurate artillery and HIMARS attack.

Well, Kyiv is confirming Russian build up in the Kharkiv region. This is along the Russian border near Belgorod and north of the Bakhmut area.

Well...the Russians have launched an offensive in the north and have enjoyed a little success. They picked a weak spot in the Ukran defenses and have advanced about 2 miles, forming a bulge. The Ukrans are rallying reserves to meet this threat.

In Russia itself Putin is cracking down on political opponents, today several prominent Russian elites, including an army colonel, were arrested and a judge has already sentenced one of them, Girkin, to 20 years in prison. No trial, just the judge's decision.

Arresting political rivals? Wow! that kind of thing would never happen here

[dawg80]

Russians have advanced about 10 miles in their bulge, along a front of about 4 miles. They are advancing along a highway and appear headed for Borova, a small town on a major river, still 12 miles further west. But, once so extended the Russians will be vulnerable to attacks along their flanks. We'll see how it plays out. This offensive is similar to Hitler's desperate gamble to reach Antwerp, Belgium in his December, 1944 offensive, later called the Battle of the Bulge. It failed and shortened the war by about a year.

The Ukrans continue to make slow progress south of Bakhmut. In the past 48 hours they have advanced 3 miles, capturing three villages and another important hill. The Ukrans have strengthened their hold on gains in the Kherson region, along the Dniper River, but like on most of the front, it's mostly a stalemate. Two Russian facilities in Crimea were hit, an ammo depot was completely destroyed, and an airfield severely damaged by Ukran drone attacks.

The Ukrans have not fully committed to an all-out counter-offensive, as some naysayers claim. It's probably a wise decision. As mentioned there are millions of landmines and traps set by the Russians, and the Russkies enjoy air superiority, albeit at a high price, and have tons and tons of artillery. Latest reports say the Ukrans have used 5 brigades in this summer "counter-offensive" but are sitting on 22 other brigades in reserve. Two of those reserve brigades have been deployed to contain the Russian "bulge" offensive. But the rest are in training and being held back.

The Russkies suffered 270,000 casualties, about 100,000 KIA and the rest wounded or captured in their 10-month saga to capture Bakhmut. The Ukrans say they will not repeat such a waste of life in an offensive, so they are being slow and cautious.

Putin has initiated a draconian draft and all males, from ages 17-65, have to register and be subjected to military call-up. Putin's "gestapo" is prepared to seek and arrest any men who fail to adhere to this edict. This is sure to increase his popularity with the Russian populace...not!

[dawg80]

Fake news: both sides are guilty of it and tis a shame since it makes it harder to follow the real news.

One whopper of a lie told by the Ukran side is that the supercarrier USS Gerald Ford and her escorts have entered the Black Sea to thwart the Russian navy there. Stupid. First and foremost, no way would the US heighten tensions by such a bold move. Secondly, even if we were so inclined to intimidate the Russkies there is no need for the USS Ford to enter the Black Sea when her air operations can easily reach it from the Mediterranean Sea. It's something like a 40-minute flight for our fighter-bomber jets. Besides, the USS Ford is not even in the Mediterranean Sea right now.

And from the other side, a Putin propagandist outlet claimed that 29 Ukran Leopard 2 tanks and 77 Bradley Fighting Machines were destroyed in a single day of combat. Laughable!

They are trying to outdo each other in seeing who can be the most ridiculous.

[Blue Dawg]

Ukrainian propaganda took a big hit with Oryx "retiring" from the game; even the US State Department was relying on their laughable "analysis" for a lot of intel.

Russia had a big breakthrough in Luhansk; Ukraine was committing a good number of troops there to prevent this but there was a sudden snap (as there often is).

There's kind of a preparatory groundswell in Western media; even some large news outlets are starting to prepare a soft landing for the failure of the counteroffensive and the fact that NATO is running out of things to deliver to Ukraine. There's an interesting theory that Poland might actually "commit troops to Northern Ukraine" (aka, annex Kiev, which they have wanted to do for 200 years). I'm not sure how much stock to put into that, but I wonder what NATO will be willing to do as the number of Ukrainian conscripts continues to dry up.

I like Mearsheimer's take (again, he called out US foreign policy years ago as they were frogmarching everyone towards this avoidable war). Essentially he says that Russia will win the war (which is obvious to anyone not completely cordycepted by MIC propaganda), but they won't win it on the terms they originally wanted (so, not all of Ukraine, not totally demilitarized, etc). He does not see any viable way towards any negotiable peace. I hope he is incorrect on this.

DeSantis has fired a staffer for making a meme video which heavily featured Ukrainian peace symbols. If those symbols are good enough for the brave fighters of Azov, certainly they're good enough for a presidential candidate! /s

[dawg80]

It's a war of wills. If one side decides it's no longer worth it, war is over. For that to happen for the Russians Putin will be the one to pull the plug. Or! Putin is booted from office and a new government declares they are done. For Ukraine, it's really NATO that holds those cards. Ukraine can only continue the war if NATO continues to supply them.

I don't think, based on all the information available (and that is not silly propaganda), that Ukraine has even started the counter-offensive. Well, they made some probing attacks to test the Russian defenses and Russian resolve and learned that both are fairly solid. So now, following a sensible strategy, the Ukrans are just focusing on small gains, made by small unit-sized operations. I think President Z is holding back waiting on the F-16s, the Abrams' tanks, and more longer-range missiles all of which is needed for a massive offensive to be successful. Plus, there is also a huge need to be able to clear wide avenues through all those mines in a short period of time. Some kind of saturation bombing, using aircraft, drones, artillery, and those special rockets that deliver path-clearing explosives. I doubt enough equipment exists, and that NATO was willing & able to deliver, to do an adequate job. Remember, the Russians have been building these defenses for nearly a year now. They are massive, complex, and deep with lines and lines of trenches/defenses one behind the other.

Is this heading toward a negotiated settlement, an "uneasy peace," where, kind of like what happened in Korea, the new border is drawn based on who occupies the ground? Perhaps that is in the works, which is why Putin is trying a land grab in the north, to shore up his southern border in the Belgorod region.