Russia

[dawg80]

A retired US Air Force officer, very familiar with the operation of the F-16 Falcon, has issued some cautionary concerns about the Ukrainians operating the jet. He said at best, with a complete immersion in a F-16 program, i.e. US Air Force personnel on the ground in Ukraine, training and working closely with the Ukrans, it would be 2027 before complete confidence could be achieved with the Ukranian AF being effective with the Falcons. The F-16 is one of the finest fighters in the world and as such is very sophisticated. This is akin to taking a bunch of average drivers and placing them behind the wheel of a powerful race car, with just minimal instruction.

Some pundits are saying the "Griffin" Jet Fighter, which is the Swedish built JAS 39 Gripen, would be a better choice for Ukraine. Very, very capable plane but a whole lot easier to learn how to fly and operate in a combat setting. And actually, President Z approached Sweden last year, before the transfer of F-16s was being seriously considered, but Sweden was not keen on that. They still aren't. The Griffin is a totally Swedish domestic design and build and apparently, they are very guarded about it being transferred to other countries.

BTW, here's a little trivia quiz for ya. There is just one fighter, in all of history, that has a perfect combat record, absolutely 100% victory record. Hint: it is not the F-16 Falcon.

In 1967 the Soviets deployed the MIG-25 Foxbat which was feared to be the best fighter in the world and all we had was the slow, inadequate F-4 Phantom, unfit for dogfighting. In 1972 the US revealed our latest fighter, the preeminent, unbeatable F-15 Eagle. It was officially retired in 2008, although there is an updated version in prototype waiting to be built and deployed. Its all-time combat record is 104-0. Over half of those victories are courtesy of Israeli pilots downing MIG-21s in their fights with Arab nations. US pilots did square off with MIG-25s over Iraq during the Gulf War(1991) and again in 2003-04. Those encounters ended Eagles 14 Foxbats 0.

NOTE: a military aviation expert sent me an email after I had posted some questions about combat records on a blog. He says the F-16 Falcon is also undefeated in air-to-air combat, at 76-0. Okay, works for me!

[dawg80]

"Rage!" that's the mantra of the 3rd Assault Brigade (the Azov Brigade). More bodycam footage released. Brutal. No mercy. Vicious. Not for the faint of heart to watch. Some will scream about "the rules of war." But, the evil invaders have shown no such consideration, even murdering women and children. When this war is over and the Putinites ejected from Ukraine, the total truth will come out. The mass graves of murdered civilians will be revealed, the horror stories made known to the world. And then all you azzholes who have supported Putin and/or called for the Ukrainians to take it up the ass just so you can stop worrying about the $billions "wasted" there, will quietly disappear, your position indefensible.

Most people, devoid of historical knowledge, secure in their ignorance think we fought Hitler's Nazis because of his atrocities toward Jews, and other undesirables. His disdain for Jews was well-known, yes, but his "final solution" was not discovered until the final month of the war in Europe. We did NOT fight Germany because of the concentration camps. No one outside of the Nazis, and the poor souls condemned to them, even knew about the camps until Soviet troops in the east and American troops, one of Patton's units being the first, came across the camps. It was commonly known at the time had the allies known about this before, they would not have treated surrendering Germans the way they did.

Today, the Ukrainians know of the atrocities that Putin's thugs have committed. So, when the Ukrans refuse to allow the thugs to surrender, so be it. Don't judge them until YOU find yourself in a situation where you come across butchered women and children, dozens of bodies piled in a barn or a building, and then you catch up to those who did it. Yeah, "RAGE!" One bodycam incident shows some Putin thugs held up in a shack, the Ukrans, in this case members of the Azov Brigade, have it surrounded. The thugs are yelling from inside for mercy, to let them surrender. Nope. A Ukran soldier stands outside the door and yells back "**** you!" and then tosses in a grenade. He then enters and you can hear his machinegun. A moment later he emerges with a grin on his face, and the Ukrans move on to root out more rats. The narrator of the YouTube video adds, "So it goes."

The mayor of Moscow, on the one hand claims all Ukran drones are being shot down, but then in the next breath complains about casualties and damage in his city. Well, which is it Mr. Mayor? The narrator of the video adds, "You want the attacks on your city to cease, then get the hell out of Ukraine."

Yeah, I know, I have a repugnant bloodlust. Well, the Putinites can stop it...

[dawg80]

This is a joke, meant to be humorous. But to be truly funny it is has to have a bit of truth in it. So...

someone posted a meme designed to look like a Twitter post from Prigozhin. The date and timestamp are about 40 minutes before his plane came apart and crashed. The Twitter (fake) post reads:

I have evidence that will get Hillary Clinton arrested.

I saw this on a British/Ukrainian YouTube channel, one of my sources. Now, tell me the US is not the laughing stock of the world due to the Clintons, obummer, the Biden crime family. The joke is funny because everyone knows the Clintons' reputation of murdering those who can harm them.

[dawg80]

Cardboard drones! Yes, the Ukrans tested the use of attack drones made mostly from cardboard to avoid radar detection, and apparently, they worked very well. The Ukrans struck a Russian airbase at Kursk, using several regular drones as decoys and sending in the cardboard versions which damaged 3 fighter-bomber jets at the base, and also damaged a hangar and some ground equipment.

This is not your standard cardboard, but a material made from compressed paper and "glued" and treated to give the material strength. The technology was developed in Australia and the company worked with Ukrainian defense department engineers to build a drone from the material. Saw a brief video on it, and it does look just like cardboard, even the same drab brownish color. The cardboard drones are very light in weight and as such they were able to use a smaller motor, one with a plastic propeller, further reducing its radar signature. And, they are quieter than the standard drones, further increasing their stealth as they approach targets. As if the Russkies don't have enough to worry about now. Too bad.

More technological advances are being made by Ukraine. They have converted captured Russian S-200 surface to air missiles into long range ground to ground missiles for attacks into Russia. These are old missiles dating back to the 1960's. The Ukrans had access to warehouses of them left by the Soviets. But, they lacked spare parts to make them operational. That is until Putin sent refurbished S-200s to Ukraine last year with truckloads of spare parts, all captured by Ukrainian special forces, thankyaverymuch! A test launch of one worked to perfection striking a Russian supply depot 200km (120 miles) inside Russia. NATO has refused to supply the Ukrans with long range missiles so as not to escalate the war. Well, that is just plain stupid, but it appears the resourceful Ukrans have found a way to do it anyway. Well done indeed!

[Blue Dawg]

Counter and counter counter and counter counter counter attacks over Robotnye over the weekend (which has been "liberated" about 3 times now). Quite a different look from how they operated under Surovikin.

Russia must be using those mobile crematoriums from last year that completely vaporize corpses.

[dawg80]

Russia has moved one of its elite units, the 76th Air Guard Assault Division, from the north to the Robotyne area, this to try to stabilize their weakening position there. No details, yet, on if it's the whole division or elements of it, and if the latter, how many units. No information on if it has already arrived or is in route. If still in route I would anticipate the Ukrans trying to strike it since moving convoys have proven to be easy targets for drones and long-range artillery (HIMARS). This also indicates Putin's situation has grown desperate as he obviously lacks reserves to send in, so he is having to rob Paul to pay Peter (or vice versa). This marks the second time Putin has repositioned one of his elite units to shore up a faltering line. The first being south of Bakhmut a couple of weeks ago. But, he weakens his line somewhere else.

[dawg80]

Counter and counter counter and counter counter counter attacks over Robotnye over the weekend (which has been "liberated" about 3 times now). Quite a different look from how they operated under Surovikin.

Russia must be using those mobile crematoriums from last year that completely vaporize corpses.

Just watched a video on the criminals released from prison and used as cannon fodder at Bakhmut. Main focus was on one young man, age 22, now dead and his body back in the hands of his family for proper burial. Report says 50,000 prisoners were sent to the front lines, some willingly and others coerced with promises of suspended sentences if they served 6 months. Very few, if any, got anywhere close to 6 months. Priggy used them to rush Ukran positions just so the Wagnernites could then target those positions, like mortar positions and machinegun nests. Conservative estimates place the casualties at: 17,000 KIA and the rest, 33,000, either wounded or captured. If the prisoners turned away from attacking the Ukrans, Chechen thugs machinegunned them down. They were trapped in a kill zone, being fired on from both directions. One source claims the KIA number approaches 40,000.

As for this dead fellow, his body arrived in a tin can, a metal coffin sealed up like a sardine can. His family was told what it was when the Russian soldiers delivered it, knocked on the door, and said, here is your son's body. But his mother refused to believe he was dead as she had just received a recording in the mail sent by him. But, that recording had been made weeks before but had only just reached her. Family members opened the coffin, and yep, it was him.

Now migrants, mostly Muslims, are being rounded up at gunpoint and being sent to the front lines to also serve as cannon fodder. But, Putin had better be careful. Muslims tend to be a tight-knit group and will act in unison when prompted by an elder. They may just turn on their Russian "comrades" in an armed rebellion.

[dawg80]

Clash of the elites. The Ukran 82nd Assault Brigade engaged with elements of the Russian 76th Air Guard in what became a swirling fight of attack and counter-attack. This happened southeast of Robotyne in open fields of farms with neither side having the benefit of prepared defenses. The results were inconclusive.

Other units of the Russian 76th were repelled west of Robotyne, but the Ukrans have occupied the trenches built by the Russians around the town and this gave them the advantage in that encounter.

This is really it for Putin. He cannot afford for the 76th to fail here and his 331st to fail at Bakhmut. Those units are supposedly his very best and the last of his veteran reserves. Putin has already pulled a brigade from way across Russia, from Siberia, which had been guarding the Chinese frontier. They were deployed to Ukraine over 6 months ago, but little has been reported about them. Maybe they are still being held in a reserve role somewhere in eastern Ukraine.

[dawg80]

Clash of the elites. The Ukran 82nd Assault Brigade engaged with elements of the Russian 76th Air Guard in what became a swirling fight of attack and counter-attack. This happened southeast of Robotyne in open fields of farms with neither side having the benefit of prepared defenses. The results were inconclusive.

Other units of the Russian 76th were repelled west of Robotyne, but the Ukrans have occupied the trenches built by the Russians around the town and this gave them the advantage in that encounter.

This is really it for Putin. He cannot afford for the 76th to fail here and his 331st to fail at Bakhmut. Those units are supposedly his very best and the last of his veteran reserves. Putin has already pulled a brigade from way across Russia, from Siberia, which had been guarding the Chinese frontier. They were deployed to Ukraine over 6 months ago, but little has been reported about them. Maybe they are still being held in a reserve role somewhere in eastern Ukraine.

Posted a question about the Siberian brigade and where they are, got a humorous reply: they only have white uniforms and snowshoes so they are little use in the summer, waiting for the first snowfall.

But, joking aside, there is no information on them. One blogger speculated they were never deployed to Ukraine but have been kept closer to Moscow in reserve.

In other real news, a Chechen base/HQ was struck by Ukran cruise missiles overnight, 28 confirmed dead, dozens more wounded, and most of these were field grade officers and intelligence staffers.

[dawg80]

Ukran advance stalls before Verbove, this village is centered in the main Russian defense line southeast of Robotyne. This is where the big fight took place yesterday between the elite units. The Russians, the 76th Division units, fell back to the defenses where they are now supported by Russian soldiers who were already there manning the trenches. That means that the Ukran 82nd Brigade effectively won the fight since it was the Russians who fell back. Russian propagandists (YouTubers, etc) are claiming the Ukrans are falling back now. Well, probably, since I am sure they have to retire some to regroup and to plan their tactics for attacking the defenses. Would be stupid to linger out in the open while they plan their next move.

Russians are pulling units from other areas along the 900-mile front to reinforce the lines south of Robotyne. Might be it will become impossible, or suicidal, to continue to attack here, and the Ukrans will seek a weaker place to attack. Will have to see what unfolds in the days/weeks to come.

But, to revisit the big picture: the war. Clearly Ukraine is winning and Putin is losing. Doesn't mean the Ukrans will enjoy a 100% tactical success rate, but they are winning strategically. It's the Russians who are on the defensive and it's the Russians who are giving up ground.

[Blue Dawg]

https://bigserge.substack.com/p/esca...-ukraine-rolls

Good article on the immense challenge Ukraine faces and the strategies they are relying on over the last few months. Although the comments correctly pointed out that normal attribution mechanics do not strictly apply: since the war is being waged by US/NATO, no amount of "Ukrainian" losses is wholly relevant to battlefield psychology.

[dawg80]

Won't waste cyberspace commenting on that stupid long article.

Now, back to reality. The Azov Brigade has seized a sector of the railroad line which runs north-south east of Bakhmut. If you have been here for the duration, you might remember how long it took the Wagnerites to seize the RR line, and the enormous casualties suffered in doing so. What is significant is the advantage of holding the line has for defenders. Without getting too bogged down in the details, the RR line is elevated and has swampy areas flanking it, and there are large culverts which can be used for cover against artillery fire, and the RR also has concrete structures built by/for the RR that housed generators, communication equipment, etc. but have been converted into bunkers impervious to gunfire. Anyway, the 3rd Assault Brigade has seized a section and are now flushing the rats out of their holes all along the railway line. The Ukrans have also breached the Russian defenses north of Bakhmut and have also crossed the rail line up that way.

The Russkies are evacuating Tokmak in anticipation of Ukran forces rolling through there in the coming days. How long will it take? That depends on how many casualties the Russians are willing to take before they retreat again.

German military officials have debunked the Putin propagandists claims of the mass destruction of Leopard II tanks. The facts are this, 71 Leopards have been deployed by the Ukrans and 5 have been knocked out of action either by mines or artillery fire. There have been exactly ZERO Ukran deaths and a handful of wounded of the crews. In related news, Greece is sending Ukraine 20 enhanced Leopard I tanks. They lack the armor of the Leopard IIs but being lighter they are much faster. Will come in handy when they are chasing down the rapidly retreating Russkies.

Today has been a busy day and there is simply too much news to report, so I will leave it here for now.

[Blue Dawg]

Too long, me no read

[dawg80]

Too long, me no read

I read it but it offered absolutely nothing new on what the critics have been saying for 18 months. Basically, for a variety of reasons, there are people who want Ukraine to bend over, grab their ankles, and allow Putin to butt f--k 'em. They grasp every opportunity to continue their diatribe against the Ukrainians. Meanwhile, the Ukrans are doing their best and fairing well on the battlefield, all things considered.

[dawg80]

Ukran drones struck four Russian airbases overnight. Reports are sketchy but it is confirmed that in one attack 4 Russian IL-76 transport planes, the ones used to drop paratroopers, have been destroyed. More details will come out later today. In one video released, from a Ukran surveillance drone, you can see the airbase, with the IL-76 planes, video shot as the attack drones arrived. But, there was also a line of parked two-wingers. About a dozen or so, painted green with the Russian Airforce decals on them. Maybe they are trainers, but two-wingers? Putin is sporting World War I vintage aircraft!

Reports are flowing out about the Wagner Group switching sides, joining Ukraine. There is independent confirmation of one Wagner commander, and about 400 soldiers, requesting permission to cross into Ukraine, meet with Ukran military officials, and switch sides. But the Wagner Group itself is much larger, partially funded by organizations from around the world, including the Soros Foundation in their operations in Africa. No way is the whole Wagner Group in totality joining with Ukraine. But, I can see groups, like this one battalion, presently in Belarus or in Russia, switching sides. Whether Putin ordered Prigozhin's death or not, he is getting the blame for it. In Russia one Wagner unit reported a surge in volunteers in the wake of Priggy's death.

Putin continues to dig his own grave...politically...and hopefully literally too.