Thank you!Originally Posted by arkansasbob
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Thank you!
Actually this was your "contention"...Like other stats it is a simple measure of how a team is performing, no different than ERAs for pitchers and batting averages for hitters, etc...
To be fair, RBI and ERA aren't any better.
Well for all you fans of high LOB I hope Tech has one game where we leave 27 LOB, fail to score a single run, and all of you will cream your drawers in ecstasy! That should make all of you so happy!
For me, I won't waste any more time trying to explain a fundamental fact that runners only count when they touch home plate.
Carry on all you delusional ones!
Conversion percentage with RISP (not just batting avg) is a much more important stat -
Much like the "inherited" runners on the pitching side - give me a dude who is lock down when he inherits runners all day long - he is much more valuable than the cat with a sub one ERA who is going to allow the long fly or short single that allows the runner at 3rd to score most every single time and then induces the ground ball to get the next batter and end the inning
''Don't be a bad dagh..."
When I played Dixie Senior recreational ball, that's 16-19 yr old, we had a coach, a young fellow, not much older than us, who had played for UNO in college and spent 3 years toiling in the minor leagues, in the Cardinal organization, I think. He taught us "situational" baseball. Understanding the score, the situation in a game, and how to MANUFACTURE runs! That meant, among other things, changing how you batted in certain situations. We practiced hitting a grounder to the right side of the infield to get a runner home from 3rd, for instance. It was like a "swinging bunt." You had to practice that, it doesn't just happen. And there are other examples.
Earl Weaver, the Hall of Fame manager of the Baltimore Orioles used to preach "3-run homers" as the ticket to success. That's great if you have a lineup of heavy hitters who can hit the long ball. Which he did, and of course one of the best pitching staffs in baseball history. Usually one 3-run homer was enough to win a game with that staff. But, most baseball teams can't rely on homers so manufacturing runs makes sense.
I realize I just wasted more time...
You make a very good point in that through Burroughs years at Tech his teams have appeared to be and are statistically proven as free-swingers. Meaning they just swing as hard as they can, seemingly trying to hit the ball off the wall or over it. As it turns out most often and what happened this weekend was that Tech did most of its damage by way of fairly simple grounders. It’s not the least bit complicated. To get out by fly ball the fielder only has to get to the ball and catch it. To get an out by grounder the fielder has to get to the ball, catch the ball, get the ball out of his glove, get control of his body and then throw the ball, but that’s not all. The throw then has to be on target, to a second player who has to have his body under control, who catches it cleanly while also being on the base of target or tagging the runner and maintaining possession of the ball. Clearly having gone through all of that Tech would be far better off practicing to swing more under control in order to directionally hit the ball thereby putting more pressure on the defense to make fielding plays. If you pay attention to Tech’s batters with lesser batting averages it’s either because they strike out quite often, which is often also a hard swinging failure, or they fly out a lot. Bates for one does a good job of choking up and swinging more to simply make contact when he’s got 2 strikes on him. Tech/Gaspard really doesn’t appear to coach batter situational awareness or hitting as much as free swinging.
Corona is a natural fly ball hitter, even when he doesn't homer he hits fly balls deep enough such that a runner on 3rd with less than two outs will score. It does depend on the hitter and his skill level and tendencies. That said, I would feel comfortable playing the percentages with allowing Corona just to go up there and hit, swing away with a runner on 3rd. But a lot of guys have a bad habit of striking out in such situations. Any pitcher will love to get a strike out with a runner on 3rd and one out.
Yes, good hitters will change their approach when they have two strikes on them. Shortening their swing to make contact instead of going down on strikes will, over the course of a long season, pay dividends. Make the defense have to make a play to get you out.
But, what do I know? I am told that high LOB numbers is good for a team....
Not true.
I don't agree. Neither stat means much until several games are played, but both indicate pitching and hitting strengths.
Some of our fans start complaining about LOB early on, but only when we lose a game. We could lose 2-1 and only leave three guys who walked to first and they would complain that we had 3 LOBs.
Given your limited capacity, I will add "not 100% of the time," which is probably what you assumed I meant.
LOL! Limited capacity from a guy who has never attended a game.
FYI, Corona did not hit a single fly ball to the outfield in his 16 plate appearances over the weekend. He did hit one line drive to right field.
Let's see how he does over the course of the season.
Usually when Corona homers it's a line drive to left or left center - he seldom homers to center or right
Drost is a weak fly ball hitter
McConell before suspension was a gap hitter
Now Swafford (sp?) is a fly ball hitter
Davis is more than not a straight pull hitter
McLeod - singles hitter and gap roller
AD is a fly ball hitter
Haven't seen enough of Furr to make a determination but he is in the top 30 in returning lifetime hits leader frm his time at UNO
''Don't be a bad dagh..."
I don't like them simply because they're too reliant on multiple players. It's hard to get much good information about a single player and make predictions about his future performance when the stats being used are based on the performance of other guys around him.
For example, a solo home run and a bases loaded HBP count the same in the box score as RBI. If I'm setting a lineup based on RBI total, those guys are equal producers. Can I reasonably predict that the guy that got HBP will produce at the same level as the guy that hit the home run? I'd say it's easier to predict a home run than a HBP unless maybe you're the kid that got hit 7 times last weekend!
As for LOB, it tells you nothing about what a hitter did other than he produced an out with someone on base. Big whoop. I want to know what the hitter did that produced the out because that's likely to tell you more about what might happen the next time he's up, whether there's someone on base or not. Was it a barreled line drive right to a guy or a flailing strikeout on a pitch 2 feet off the plate?
ERA is too reliant on things outside of a pitcher's control (i.e. defense), which is why we have FIP now. It looks at things that the pitcher has the most control over: walks, strikeouts, HBP, and home runs. Other balls in play are removed from the equation because defensive positioning and fielder skill cannot be controlled by the pitcher. A guy with a high ERA and low FIP would suggest that he's run into some bad luck (ground balls finding a hole, bloop hits, etc.) where a guy with a low ERA and high FIP (see 2023 Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell) would show a fair amount of luck due to giving up a lot of walks, not striking guys out, and relying on a great defense to make plays.
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