Russia

[dawg80]

Ukraine "invades" another Russian province (oblast). This one in Bryansk. This makes three incursions. These are NOT invasions, of course, but rather diversions to force Putin to reallocate troops away from Donbas, Ukraine and have to defend his home turf. There's that old saying: "the best defense is a good offense."

This latest is Ukrainian special forces, no numbers disclosed, but they have penetrated over 60 miles into Russia! That's because Putin is spread so thin he can't protect his border. The Ukrans, using recon drones, and now US-shared satellite/drone intelligence again, can detect lightly guarded border sectors and simply walk across into Russia. Putin will respond, because he has to, and this will impact his offensive offense in Donbas. (please note the use of "offensive" offense...) Depending on the situation, like the terrain, etc. Ukraine might decide to reinforce the special unit making this incursion with regular units.

[dawg80]

Germany has mobilized two reserve armor brigades and is working on logistics to send them to Poland to serve alongside the Poles on the Russian border.

Russia boarded and seized two merchant ships in the Barents Sea, one a Greek oil tanker and the other an Estonian cargo ship. Estonia navy ships had chased away a Russian ship hovering over an underwater oil pipeline crossing the Barents Sea. They suspected foul play from the Russians. Putin ordered a retaliation.

The three Baltic states: Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have signed a mutual defense agreement and are building defenses and mobilizing troops. The Kremlin cried foul, saying these countries building defenses is provocative. Building DEFENSES is provocative? Hmmm....

Putin sent 240 drones and 14 missiles to attack Kyiv. Only 5 of the drones got through but 13 of the missiles struck civilian targets in Kyiv. It is past time that Ukraine strikes the Kremlin. Take down all those beautiful, historic buildings. That'll really piss off Putin.

[dawg80]

Russian officials have evacuated Moscow, at least many have, and their families. 10 large private jets, or really Russian government jets, left Moscow yesterday heading to cities further east. These jets are not small, like a Leer Jet, but are the size of small commercial jetliners. And one of them was fired on by Russian aerial defense, but they missed. They must be expecting a strike on Moscow to evacuate like this. These were high-ranking officials, friends of Putin, and their families.

Ukraine took out a Russian fuel-supply train, hitting it with a Mother Drone attack about 800 miles inside of Russia. A Mother Drone is a large drone which carries attack drones which are deployed to attack targets. In this case it took just two FPV drones to utterly destroy the train. Kaboom!

On the front, more of the same. Russians gained a little ground in exchange for heavy losses.

[dawg80]

Breaking news: Putin just concluded a huge missile attack on various Ukrainian cities. The count is 367 cruise and ballistic missiles. Some were shot down, but many struck targets. The attack, as usual, was totally random and most of the targets are civilian facilities like apartment complexes, schools, shopping centers, etc. Too early for confirmed numbers, but early reports are fires are raging in many cities, mostly civilian housing etc.

Maybe this is why all the Russian officials evacuated Moscow yesterday with their families. They are expecting a retaliatory strike on Moscow. Unfortunately, Ukraine does not possess the kind of weapons for long-range attacks, like cruise missiles, they can use to attack a large city like Moscow. Ukraine has some British and French cruise missiles, but they have smaller warheads, and besides, Ukraine has so few they cannot afford to waste them attacking civilian targets. Ukraine uses their cruise missiles very expediently to strike key Russian military targets. Ukraine can use their long-range drones, which they have done before, but those are slow, can be shot down, and can carry only small warheads the distance to Moscow.

Putin is pure evil. He has no intention of stopping this war, doesn't want to. That is something the Trump administration can't seem to grasp. Rubio said the other day President Trump wants to end the war, great! But Trump cannot make Putin do something he is steadfast against. Putin has to be defeated militarily, economically, and politically. Putin cannot be reasoned with.

[dawg80]

Good news this morning!

The Ukrainian 58th Motorized Brigade and the 92nd Assault Brigade, holding the line in Belgorod, successfully destroyed attacking Russian units. It was a complete and total success. Not a single Russian vehicle survived, and this includes 3 tanks, 11 IFVs, 6 APCs, and an assortment of civilian vehicles pressed into service by the Russkis. Losses on the Russian side estimated to be about 120 KIA, 200+ wounded, and 25 captured. There are dozens of Russian soldiers, from this defeated attack, still in the area hiding in woods lines and ditches. Ukran FPV drones are systematically hunting them down and killing them with grenade attacks.

Now, in the bigger picture, the Ukrainian reason for making this incursion into Belgorod is made clear. Russia needs the major highway that passes through this region to conduct their strategic invasion into this sector of Kharkiv. Either Ukrainian intelligence intercepted some message alerting them of this or they just guessed it and got it right. Either way, this is a cork in the bottle for Putin's plans to invade Kharkiv Oblast. As usual the Ukrainians are a step ahead of the clumsy Russians.

[dawg80]

Breaking news: Putin just concluded a huge missile attack on various Ukrainian cities. The count is 367 cruise and ballistic missiles. Some were shot down, but many struck targets. The attack, as usual, was totally random and most of the targets are civilian facilities like apartment complexes, schools, shopping centers, etc. Too early for confirmed numbers, but early reports are fires are raging in many cities, mostly civilian housing etc.

Maybe this is why all the Russian officials evacuated Moscow yesterday with their families. They are expecting a retaliatory strike on Moscow. Unfortunately, Ukraine does not possess the kind of weapons for long-range attacks, like cruise missiles, they can use to attack a large city like Moscow. Ukraine has some British and French cruise missiles, but they have smaller warheads, and besides, Ukraine has so few they cannot afford to waste them attacking civilian targets. Ukraine uses their cruise missiles very expediently to strike key Russian military targets. Ukraine can use their long-range drones, which they have done before, but those are slow, can be shot down, and can carry only small warheads the distance to Moscow.

Putin is pure evil. He has no intention of stopping this war, doesn't want to. That is something the Trump administration can't seem to grasp. Rubio said the other day President Trump wants to end the war, great! But Trump cannot make Putin do something he is steadfast against. Putin has to be defeated militarily, economically, and politically. Putin cannot be reasoned with.

This just posted on CNN online...

Ukraine’s Air Force said 367 aerial attack weapons - 69 missiles and 298 drones - were launched across 22 locations in Ukraine overnight into Sunday. It added 47 of those missiles and 266 drones were intercepted.

So, there were drones in the attack too. Early reports are 12 killed, including children. This count is expected to rise.

[dawg80]

First, Romania elected the pro-democracy, pro-Ukrainian candidate as president. Now this president is taking tangible steps to stand up to Putin and Russia. He signed into law a bill passed by the Romanian parliament last October, but which the previous pro-Putin president refused to authorize. This law gives Romanian military leaders the right to respond, as they deem necessary, to incursions into their air space and territorial waters. Russia has been routinely violating Romanian air space sending drones and missiles across Romania to avoid Ukrainian coastal defenses. Now, all that stops.

[dawg80]

Ukran drones attacked a Russian helicopter in Kursk which so happened to be occupied by Putin. Wow! an opportunity missed. The Kremlin now accusing Ukraine of an "assassination" attempt. Well, first, Ukraine did not know Putin was on the helicopter. Too bad too, because had they known, they would have tried harder to get him. Secondly, Putin is commander-in-chief of an invading army and as such is a legit target.

Ukraine has shot down 137 Russian helicopters and damaged dozens more since the war began. Helicopters are easily susceptible to drone and rocket attacks and Russia has pretty much stopped using them in the war. Based on one source, this attack was conducted by an advance special forces unit in Kursk who happened to have the small FPV drones they carry in backpack. They saw a Russian helicopter and decided to try to take it down. No details yet on if one of those drones actually hit the helicopter or if they were shot down. These Ukran soldiers did not know Putin was onboard.

Damn! could have saved tens of thousands of lives...

[dawg80]

A note found in a downed Shahed drone has alerted Ukraine on the new guidance system of these drones. This is being widely reported. Here's the scoop, apparently a Russian engineer, obviously an anti-Putin fellow, wants to help Ukraine so he placed a "note" (that's what the press release is calling it) providing information that the drones are now using AI strictly and are no longer dependent on GPS satellite-provided guidance. This was reported about a month ago, but it was thought the AI was a back-up system. If this is true, then conventional and recently developed anti-drone electronic systems are rendered useless. And the UK was set to deploy their brand-new, anti-drone electronic system to Ukraine.

This all sounds "too convenient" to me, like something from a spy novel. A disgruntled engineer slipping a note into a weapons' system (a drone) to alert the good guys!? They say truth is stranger than fiction.

But, the Ukrans were already alerted to this possibility so have ramped up other means of taking down Russian drones. Killer-drones, helicopters with Gatlin guns, and the reliable F-16 Falcon have all been in full operation and are responsible for destroying most of Putin's drones already.

[dawg80]

Finally giving up on Trump/US, Europe is ramping up support for Ukraine. This is something they should have been doing since day one, back in February, 2022. But, now reports are a lot more direct military aid and supply will be flowing into Ukraine.

[dawg80]

Germany's PM Merz announced that all restrictions on Ukraine's use of long-range weapons have been lifted. And Merz, speaking for the US, said "the Americans" have to. I've not heard, either way, from official US sources on that. Biden had allowed Ukraine to use our ATACMS missiles anywhere in Ukraine and in a limited capacity into Russia. But now, if all of this true, there are no limits on the ATACMS either. Those missiles have a limited range of only 240 miles anyway.

The bigger news is now Ukraine can launch the longer-range cruise missiles, such as the French-British cruise missile, Storm Shadow, with a range up to 350 miles reaching Moscow when launched from eastern Ukraine, such as Sumy or Kharkiv oblasts. The Storm Shadow is actually aircraft launched; Ukraine outfitting the SU-24 to carry and launch it. The F-16 can carry it as well. The German-built Taurus cruise missile has a range of close to 375 miles, but Germany has yet to send Ukraine any.

This is a game changer, and if adequately supplied, Ukraine can attack a lot of military targets in Russia with large warheads. Up till now they have only had their own long-range drones carrying much smaller warheads.

This is good news.

In related news, Trump has discontinued preferential treatment of Ukraine for re-supply of Patriot missiles. The Biden administration had ordered Lockheed-Martin, the manufacturer, to ship a guaranteed number of Patriot missiles monthly to Ukraine. But L-M can produce only 55 of the missiles monthly, and the US and some of our other allies are in short supply, asking for shipments. Ukraine offered to pay for any Patriot missiles now, and Trump said, fine, but get in line and wait your turn. Ukraine has a limited supply, and their other anti-aircraft/anti-drone missile is the Russian-built S-300. Which they cannot resupply since they are made in Russia. Seems to me Lockheed-Martin needs to expand its manufacturing capacity as demand > current supply.

[dawg80]

Putin has launched his much-anticipated summer offensive, sending 50,000 troops into Kharkiv. The early reports are cloudy and confusing with conflicting information coming out. But, based on the best intelligence so far, the Russians are attacking along a 20-mile front. Ukraine was prepared for this offensive as it wasn't exactly a well-kept secret. In fact, the Kremlin has been boasting about it for months even showing maps on Russian national TV where the attack would occur. This is why Ukraine sent troops into Belgorod to cut the major highway passing through that sector, knowing it would be, could be, a major supply and reinforcement route. Ukraine is still blocking that highway, so the Russians used secondary roads and another highway further north to build up their forces. It appears the Russians will attempt to reopen that highway by having troops swing in behind the dug-in Ukrans. But to do that they will have to advance about 25 miles through Kharkiv and the Ukrans are waiting for them to try it.

Pundits are predicting another military disaster for Putin's poor saps. If the 50,000 man number is accurate and even IF these were elite, well-equipped troops (which they are not), they lack sufficient numbers to seize "Fortress Kharkiv," which is Putin's declared target, Kharkiv City. Best estimates are the Russians will suffer at least 40% casualties, losing 20,000 of these troops, in less than a month, and the offensive will bog down a mere 5 miles inside of Kharkiv Oblast, at best. Best guesses are Ukraine has about 17,000 troops in defensive works ready to oppose this stupid Putin attack. But, they also have artillery and drones and now F-16s and the Russians will be killed by the many hundreds at a time, wiped out, with no losses sustained by the entrenched Ukrainians.

This is delusional! Some sources are giving Putin the benefit of the doubt by stating he does not truly think/believe this offensive will succeed. He says so in public and his mouth pieces in his propaganda machine are thumping their chests boasting "Fortress Kharkiv" will fall before the end of the summer. But, come on man! no way do any of them truly believe that.

Think about Bakhmut. That was a city of 70,000, pre-war, no defensive preparations made before the Russian invasion of February 2022, and yet it took 10 months of intense battle and cost Russia 125,000 casualties taking it. Kharkiv City has a population of 1.4 million and is called "Fortress Kharkiv" because that is what it is, a frickin' fortress! One pundit said, okay, I'll play along with Putin and see what it would take for him to seize that city. His best estimates are Russia would need 750,000 troops, well-equipped and properly supported with aerial cover and with the use of thousands of drones and missiles to weaken the city's defenses. That is if Putin did not use tactical nukes.

Nope! Putin just condemned 50,000 saps to suffering and death.

[dawg80]

Someone, obviously a Kremlin insider, leaked Russia's nuke secrets including exactly where their underground bunkers and silos are located. I have to think we already knew all of this, but the world is acting like this is a big deal.

Ukrainian drones continue to deliver greetings to Moscow and Putin's military infrastructure. Last night another drone factory was hit, this one disguised as a food-processing facility, outskirts of Moscow. Fires are raging, explosions heard, inside of the building. Scratch another Putin asset.

[dawg80]

Update on Kharkiv front, Russia has committed 67,000 troops there and have gained ground just across the border. Ukraine is building defensive works about 5-7 miles inside of the oblast, which should put a stop to the advance.

Ukraine offered Russia another proposal for a ceasefire and the Kremlin said they would reply to the proposal within a few hours. Their reply was another huge attack on civilian targets, sending 900 drones/missiles and killing at least 16 people.

Trump has lost ALL credibility on this matter and would be better served just shutting up. No, seriously, he's being called the "TACO Man," he's a laughingstock around the world and he should simply stop running his mouth on this and turn it over to someone who can actually handle the matter. I'm not sure who that might be because there's no one on his team who appears to be any smarter.

[PawDawg]

Actually Biden was the laughing stock.

The enemy has no idea what the US (Trump) is about to do to them, which is the way it should be. Talking this out through biased media Trump hater outlets is certainly not the answer. Some just say give Z whatever he wants.

Just curious who you think is smart enough to end this...maybe some of your beloved EU members who are cowered down behind the US while providing Russia funds to fight the war?