|
|
It has to happen fast or they won't meet the June 30 deadline for schools to start the 2011 season. I think that each conference probably already has a plan for if "X" school gets taken, then we take "Y" school. And I would imagine that "Y" school already knows this and has agreed.Originally Posted by johnnylightnin
I think we should know by July 1 what our future is.
I would love for it to happen that fast -
I just don't see it...
''Don't be a bad dagh..."
"Unless Irish athletic director Jack Swarbrick is trying to construct the mother of all smoke screens, Notre Dame will remain in a conference of one."
If ND says no and two or three schools from the Big East are invited, it will interesting to see what the ACC does. We haven't really gotten into it on this thread, but if the ACC were to announce expansion plans in the next few weeks, to go to 14 or 16 teams, it will be the death of Big East football. The ACC will take several of its football-playing members. This might be where UCONN ends up.
The few football playing schools left in the Big East will almost certainly end up back in CUSA. CUSA expands but with some of its former members.
For Tech, it would be much better if the Big 10 goes to 14 and the ACC announces it will stay at 12. At the same time, there will be a lot of pressure on the ACC to make a quick decision, one way or another, that it can live with for the next 5 to 7 years.
I wonder if there is a buy-out for the 27 month notice the BE schools must give. Does the buy-out still exist if the conference folds?
That's the one thing that makes me think this could be more drawn out that most expect.
Time is your friend. Impulse is your enemy. -John Bogle
This is the scenario that scares the crap out of me -
USF and UC could end up back in CUSA
Really need far flung mayhem to help us get to where we need to be
''Don't be a bad dagh..."
Sportdawg:
I think that may be the one thing the Chicago Tribune writer has incorrect in his story. If the Big 10 is pushing for this by July 1 of this year, it is so the plan can be put into place for the 2011-12 school year, not the 2012-13 school year. Look at the last round of expansion that hit the ACC, Big East and CUSA in 2004. Everything had to be in place on July 1, 2004 for the 2005-06 school year.
The Big 10 may need to go through a formal process over the next 6 weeks, but their commish Delany really needs to know from his presidents which schools would have the 8 votes needed for admission (all of his recommended schools will) and then make the target schools known in the next week or so. Also, I don't think the Big East bylaws and buyouts and waiting periods will be a problem. Money will take care of it.
The Trib writer is correct in that all of the other conferences involved need time to be able to respond.
Last edited by The Historian; 04-20-2010 at 11:42 AM.
I think the BE stays together no matter what happens. They have that automatic BCS bowl bid and they still have enough teams to pick from to keep it. They can pick teams out of the MAC if they have to. The ACC has no reason to expand because there will be no teams left that can improve their conference.
Depends upon the degree of mayhem. If the ACC declines to expand and Big East football survives, CUSA will then expand. It will be good for several schools, including Tech and MTSU in my opinion.
If the Big 10 and ACC were to each go to 16 - real mayhem - well I don't even want say what might happen to Tech.
If Pitt leaves for the Big 10 and WVU feels stranded, they may very well try to push for ACC or even the SEC (if Missouri leaves and Arkansas moves as a result). However, if there is a core of WVU, Pitt, Louisville, UConn, Cincy & USF left with BCS money, there is no way they are going to disband. They may have to stay at 9 for a while, but you know that UCF, ECU & Memphis already have their luggage at the door! If they can also can get Army, Navy & then then ask Temple back, they are set for awhile. That is our best scenario!
The movement will then focus on the west with the PAC10 and the MWC trying to scramble to follow suit to that 12 number. I think the BCS conferences are going to wait until they see how the money falls before they are all convinced that 14 or 16 is the way to go, like the Big 10 seems to want to do. Once this next round settles down, we should have 5-6 years of stability. And who knows, in 2018 or so, we may look very attractive to a BCS conference!!!!
DFiH
Regarding Notre Dame, I agree.
Notre Dame's biggest problem is that they have to understand what life is going to be like AFTER the Big 10 expands to 12, 14 or 16 teams, WITHOUT them.
- If the Big 10 moves to this "Super conference" alignment of 16 teams without the Irish, Notre Dame could eventually become a forgotten and unimportant commodity in the midwest. Santa Clara, Fordham, Duquesne, Carnegie Tech, and Dartmouth were all prestigeous names in college football at one time. Can Notre Dame really afford to be left out of this Super conference?
- Scheduling would suddenly become much tougher for the Irish, and ND's prestige would eventually fade.
This is going to be fun to watch.
HD
Pure speculation here....but I'm guessing that the Big 10 --currently at 11 schools-- goes to a Super conference alignment and adds 3 or 5. Here are the locks, in order, for an invite/bid:
1) Notre Dame - Could boost the new Big 10 TV package significantly.
2) Missouri - Perfect fit geographically, academically, and synergisitically.
3) Nebraska - Tremendous football reputation. Good geography in the west.
4) West VA. - Very solid football & basketball program. Good geography in the east.
5) Pitt - Good fit geographically in the east. Brings eastern TV sets & relationship with Penn State.
Adding all 5 would take the Big 10 to 16 schools. We would have out FIRST Super conference. Then, you'd see the SEC, the ACC and the Big 12 (now 10 schools with loss of Missouri and Nebraska) scramble to follow suit.
HD
I think you're right about the super conference trend. Big 12 and the BE could be massacred in the process. I do think the Big 10 is gonna make a play for Syracuse and Rutgers in an attempt to get the Big 10 network picked up in the largest media market in the nation. If that happens, they'll have more money than they know what to do with.
Time is your friend. Impulse is your enemy. -John Bogle
I agree, but slightly disagree on two points:
1) Like Johnny Lightnin says, they will grab Rutgers or Syracuse (maybe both) to get into the NYC market. IN all the scenarios this is what everyone is saying! The other lock is Missouri. Joe Pa and State wants Pitt, but they did turn them down once and their is bad blood as a result. I think Pitt stays with Cincy and WVU this round.
2) I think the other conferences are going to sit at 12 until they see how scheduling this 'monster' and how the money is going to fall. They are going to site the problems with the WAC at 16 until the Big 14/16 can prove it is a huge money maker!
DFiH
Having been in the middle of ACC land during the last expansion, I can only tell you to expect the unexpected. Google Syracuse, VT, BC and ACC expansion.
There is still a debate within Tobacco Road as to if the last ACC expansion was beneficial to the ACC 9. UNC and Duke were adamantly opposed to that expansion and will likely be to any future expansion. My gut says that they stay put at 12, but if they see a chance to disband the Big East and the ACC's basketball rival anything is possible.
I agree with you about the fear of history repeating itself (WAC). I also think the Big10 will not go above 14 teams. It would take too many years to schedule the out-of-division conference mates.
I haven't seen any discussion about USM changing conferences but they have been consistently improving their athletic facilities as well as additional campus buildings. I have no idea if they have an agenda but I think they are happy in CUSA.
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote