Whatever happens, this will be THE end of the realignment road for the next decade+. Once every super conference is locked in at 12-16 with a conf. championship game, what's done is done.
Better hope we end up in a good position.
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Whatever happens, this will be THE end of the realignment road for the next decade+. Once every super conference is locked in at 12-16 with a conf. championship game, what's done is done.
Better hope we end up in a good position.
You're exactly right and the big boys know it too. That's one reason we might see some panic reactions from some conferences that are normally level headed.Originally Posted by CChandler
Time is your friend. Impulse is your enemy. -John Bogle
DFIH:
Once the Big 10, and then Big East, possibly ACC, and then CUSA acts, there will be a pause but not for long. Probably not more than a year. The focus will then shift to Texas.
The Big 12's TV contract is up in 2012. By this time next year, Texas will have much better idea of where it want to be, and where the money will be.
The Big 10 might make that decision easy for them. If Nebraska and Missouri head for the Big 10, the Big 12's new TV deal will never be able to generate the dollars Texas will be looking for. The really big TV money will then be with an expanded SEC, or an expanded Pac 10. You could easily see a group of Big 12 teams, led by the Texas/Texas A&M combo head to one of those two leagues. They could easily create an SEC/Pac 10 bidding war.
Interesting blog on the topic...
http://frankthetank.wordpress.com/
Time is your friend. Impulse is your enemy. -John Bogle
Obama will soon figure out a way to tax these schools that are bringing in so much money.
Someone help me be more positive....
Realignment looks likely. There is a chance that it occurs but it does not require CUSA to scoop up member(s) of WAC, MAC, or Belt. If CUSA must raid one or more of the forementioned conferences, we must be selected over some other schools who have some positive attributes. So, we need realignment; we need realignment to happen and force CUSA to pick up at least one school from WAC; and we need CUSA to pick us.
We need hings to fall our way. Because of these multiple contingencies, i think the odds are less than 50/50, assuming realignment occurs in the next two years.
I think that after the Big 11 does whatever they are going to do, the SEC is going to make a serious power move. I seriously doubt that the SEC will sit and let the Big 11 become the "power conference". The ego of the SEC just won't let that happen. I think they will make a strong move for Texas, A&M to expand to at least 14. If they go the 16 school route depending on if and how it works for the Big 11, you might see Oklahoma and Oklahoma State move into the SEC. Without Texas or Oklahoma, it will be very hard for there to a Big 12 especially if Nebraska some how ends up in the Big 11 Super Conference.
Time is your friend. Impulse is your enemy. -John Bogle
I normally don't do the realignment offseason talk thing, but I think its a legit topic in 2010, and something is going to happen sooner than later.
Here's how I see it shaking out, with a strong attempt at throwing away any biases:
BIG TEN:
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Michigan
Michigan State
Minnesota
Northwestern
Ohio State
Penn State
Purdue
Wisconsin
Syracuse
Rutgers
Missouri
BIG EAST (football playing members listed):
Cincinatti
Connecticut
Louisville
Pittsburg
USF
West Virginia
Central Florida
Memphis
East Carolina
PAC 10:
Arizona
Arizona State
UC Berkeley
Oregon
Oregon State
Stanford
UCLA
USC
Washington
Washington State
Colorado
Utah
BIG XII:
Iowa State
Kansas State
Kansas
Nebraska
Oklahoma State
Oklahoma
Baylor
Texas Tech
Texas A&M
Texas
BYU
New Mexico or UNLV or Colorado State (assumption going forward: New Mexico)
SEC:
[unchanged]
ACC:
[unchanged]
MWC/WAC/Something:
Air Force Academy
Colorado State
San Diego State
TCU
UNLV
Wyoming
Nevada
Texas-El Paso
CONFERENCE USA:
Houston
Rice
SMU
Tulane
Tulsa
UAB
Southern Miss
Marshall
Ohio
Middle Tennessee
Louisiana Tech
North Texas
WAC:
Boise State
Fresno State
Hawaii
Idaho
New Mexico State
San Jose State
Utah State
Montana
Sun Belt:
Arkansas State
FAU
FIU
ULL
ULM
Troy
Western Kentucky
South Alabama
MAC:
[unchanged - Ohio]
NOTES:
MWC -- No, I did not forget Boise. The MWC has no interest in Boise state. Do I need to repeat this? No interest in Boise State, due to their subpar academics. Boise is left out in the cold here. It may be hard to swallow, but its the truth.
CUSA -- There are two scenarios at play here. One involves keeping Marshall and adding Ohio (Tier 1 national university) of the MAC as a travel partner. MTSU is added to replace Memphis, and LA Tech and North Texas are added, and become travel partners for one another. This is the play I project.
Scenario two involves dropping Marshall, putting Ohio out of the picture and probably cementing this incarnation of CUSA at 10 schools.
WAC -- Kind of hosed. Really needs Montana to move up to get to 8, or make a play for the CSU+Wyoming combo.
Just my opinion. This makes the most logical sense. Of course, we know how that goes.
Last edited by CChandler; 04-20-2010 at 04:01 PM.
It wouldn't surprise me at all to see Obama implement a "windfall profits" tax on these schools. Afterall, this has become very big business. Yes, I know schools are tax free entities, but I also know the feds never foresaw this kind of big time TV money going through the coughers untaxed.
HD
I just don't see the sec expanding, and especially taking somebody out of the Big 12. The powers in the sec aren't interested in teams that can beat them. they can already win a national championship playing the teams they play, so why add teams that aren't a sure wins. The Big 10 will most likely take only Pitt for a 12 team conference or Pitt, Syracuse, and Rutgers for a 14 team conference. These are teams that most Big 10 teams can beat and they could possibly help their TV market. To get an idea on what these conferences are going to do, take a look at their schedules. They all play 8 conferences games and 4 easy teams at home. They only have to win 2 conference games to qualify for a bowl and they don't even have to win a road game. They're not going to add teams that they might have to play on the road.
It really does show just how big this really has become and why the Big 10 just might go to 16. It also shows why the Big 10 might be begging Nebraska, and why Fox News Corp might be driving some of this.
The timetable really is important. If they do not have anything in place for 2011-12, they would be leaving a lot of money on the table.
Am I the only person that believes there is NO WAY IN HELL these conferences will have 16 teams?? Seems to be a football scheduling nightmare.....I just think the Big 12, SEC, Big 10-11-12 (whatever), Pac 10 and the ACC plus the Irish school are going to get together and form the 'football super league' and leave the rest out in the cold. They pretty much did it with the BCS, they can do it again!!
Actually I think 16 may in all likelyhood happen -
4 conferences of 16 teams
64 teams
Conference champs then play a PLUS 1 for a football NC
The money made will dwarf anything out there
''Don't be a bad dagh..."
I personally think the magic number will be 14. That makes sense for the Big 10 wanting both Missouri and Rutgers with a space left open for ND, if they bite. If they don't they will ask Syracuse. This will give them 6 division games and 2 (home/away) from the other division every year.
However, to use Dwayne's thinking, you could add 2 more 16 team conferences and have an 8 team playoff set with the champion from each and two at-large teams coming from the 'Big 4'!!!! The last two conferences could come from the rest of the teams left standing from CUSA/WAC/MAC/Sunbelt/MWC.......it also makes them all BCS eligible and eliminates the threats from lawsuits!
DFiH
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