Possible Big 10 Expansion Sooner Than Expected?

[The Historian]

DFIH:

Once the Big 10, and then Big East, possibly ACC, and then CUSA acts, there will be a pause but not for long. Probably not more than a year. The focus will then shift to Texas.

The Big 12's TV contract is up in 2012. By this time next year, Texas will have much better idea of where it want to be, and where the money will be.

The Big 10 might make that decision easy for them. If Nebraska and Missouri head for the Big 10, the Big 12's new TV deal will never be able to generate the dollars Texas will be looking for. The really big TV money will then be with an expanded SEC, or an expanded Pac 10. You could easily see a group of Big 12 teams, led by the Texas/Texas A&M combo head to one of those two leagues. They could easily create an SEC/Pac 10 bidding war.

Given this latest round of stories, I wanted to follow-up on this post. It's pretty clear there is a very real possibility the Big 12 is going to go away. In just a few years, the Texas/Texas A&M combo will either be a part of an expanded SEC or an expanded Pac 10. It's also clear that other Big 12 schools would almost certainly be part of the package - a new western division of the SEC or eastern division of the Pac 10.

My best guess is that it will be the Pac 10. I have to agree with Don on this, if the money can be worked out, why would Texas want to deal with the competitive level it would face in the SEC.

Nebraska and Missouri are not going to wait around for that possibility. The Big 10 will expand in two phases, but these two schools will likely be in phase 1 when the league goes to 14 teams. If Notre Dame has likely turned them down (as the Chicago Tribune reported), they will leave spots open for a second phase of expansion at some point down the road.

The remaining schools in the Big 12, likely Iowa State, Kansas State, Kansas, and perhaps one or two others, will fold into the Mountain West. It will then become an AQ league. The remaining Big 12 schools will not expand, because they will have no real assurances they will have their AQ bid long-term. It will be easier to fold into the Mountain West, because that would almost guarantee that league would receive a bid and be able to hold it.

Throughout this process, Tech's concern will be if the ACC expands and kills Big East football, closing the door on Big East expansion and thus CUSA expansion. As I have previously stated in this thread, it will be much better for Tech if expansion happens in phases and Big East football survives the first phase.

[johnnylightnin]

...and some other tidbits:


http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...html?eref=sihp

This is the most informative article I've read on the topic. Sounds to me like the Big 10 could expand in phases in such a way that it would put the BE on life-support. Once the BE gets to be one school away from non-AQ status, the Big 10 could take that school (WVU? Pitt?) and get Notre Dame as well.

[johnnylightnin]

A proactive Big East?

http://www.boston.com/sports/college...:colleges-blog

[tenacious_dog]

Not hard to find interesting conference expansion articles these days:

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/co...e_on_east.html

http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/spo...ore-teams.html

[PawDawg]

Looks like it will boil down to who secures the largest television markets first. No surprise that money will be the driving force, but who will be the first to secure a deal. Proactive = doing the deal early and getting/keeping what you want.

[DONW]

Given this latest round of stories, I wanted to follow-up on this post. It's pretty clear there is a very real possibility the Big 12 is going to go away. In just a few years, the Texas/Texas A&M combo will either be a part of an expanded SEC or an expanded Pac 10. It's also clear that other Big 12 schools would almost certainly be part of the package - a new western division of the SEC or eastern division of the Pac 10.

My best guess is that it will be the Pac 10. I have to agree with Don on this, if the money can be worked out, why would Texas want to deal with the competitive level it would face in the SEC.

Nebraska and Missouri are not going to wait around for that possibility. The Big 10 will expand in two phases, but these two schools will likely be in phase 1 when the league goes to 14 teams. If Notre Dame has likely turned them down (as the Chicago Tribune reported), they will leave spots open for a second phase of expansion at some point down the road.

The remaining schools in the Big 12, likely Iowa State, Kansas State, Kansas, and perhaps one or two others, will fold into the Mountain West. It will then become an AQ league. The remaining Big 12 schools will not expand, because they will have no real assurances they will have their AQ bid long-term. It will be easier to fold into the Mountain West, because that would almost guarantee that league would receive a bid and be able to hold it.

Throughout this process, Tech's concern will be if the ACC expands and kills Big East football, closing the door on Big East expansion and thus CUSA expansion. As I have previously stated in this thread, it will be much better for Tech if expansion happens in phases and Big East football survives the first phase.

[hookdown]

Looks like it will boil down to who secures the largest television markets first. No surprise that money will be the driving force, but who will be the first to secure a deal. Proactive = doing the deal early and getting/keeping what you want.

Exactly!!!!


That is why it would not surprise me to see the SEC try to beat the Big 11 to the punch and add FSU, Miami, Georgia Tech, Clemson, Texas, A&M, OU, OSU, or TCU (pick 4 :icon_wink. Let's say they did pick up FSU, Miami, Texas, and A&M (or even OU), they could go out and probably get a 25-50% increase in their TV dollars right away, maybe even double it. Sure there would be issues, but I am sure that counting all those new $$$ coming in would ease the pain. Plus it would proactively kick all the other AQ conferences right where it hurts. The SEC picks up glamour teams and prevents the others from doing the same.

[DawgFight71]

I think the SEC will expand into the Texas market. They already have the Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina markets. If they got Texas and A&M, almost the entire state of Texas would start watching SEC football. Least that's what I would do...

[PawDawg]

I think the SEC will expand into the Texas market. They already have the Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina markets. If they got Texas and A&M, almost the entire state of Texas would start watching SEC football. Least that's what I would do...

Yep, and it leaves the remaining 10 teams scrambling...

TCU back in. Who else? Houston maybe.

[hookdown]

Yep, and it leaves the remaining 10 teams scrambling...

TCU back in. Who else? Houston maybe.

BYU & New Mexico

[The Historian]

BYU & New Mexico

If the Big 12 does manage to survive, it would likely be with 7 teams. It will almost certainly lose five schools: Texas (Pac 10 or SEC); Texas A&M (Pac 10 or SEC); Nebraska (Big 10); Missouri (Big 10); and Colorado (Pac 10).

If it does survive, the Big 12 would damage the Mountain West to a point where any hope of an AQ bid goes out the window. If Utah also ends up in the Pac 10, in my opinion, the most likely replacement candidates for the Big 12 are:

TCU
Houston
Memphis
New Mexico
BYU (no Sunday events would hurt their bid but might not be a deal breaker)

Memphis' first option, over Big East membership, is the Big 12, even a weakened Big 12. SMU might be possible, as well, but it is clear TCU prefers not to be in the same conference with the Ponies.

[The Historian]

Exactly!!!!


That is why it would not surprise me to see the SEC try to beat the Big 11 to the punch and add FSU, Miami, Georgia Tech, Clemson, Texas, A&M, OU, OSU, or TCU (pick 4 :icon_wink. Let's say they did pick up FSU, Miami, Texas, and A&M (or even OU), they could go out and probably get a 25-50% increase in their TV dollars right away, maybe even double it. Sure there would be issues, but I am sure that counting all those new $$$ coming in would ease the pain. Plus it would proactively kick all the other AQ conferences right where it hurts. The SEC picks up glamour teams and prevents the others from doing the same.

Hookdown

When Mike Slive talks SEC expansion, I think he's talking about Texas and Texas A&M. They add real value. Those two schools together are probably worth the 25% to 50% increase in TV dollars. No other combination of schools can give the SEC that boost.

The problems the ACC is having in its current TV negotiations point out the fact their schools just don't deliver national type TV numbers, even FSU and Miami. That was surprising to me. In fact, if the SEC cannot get Texas and Texas A&M, they would probably stay pat.

[DONW]

I'm hearing that all 66 AQ teams are going to combine into one mega-conference. Those on the east side of the Mississippi River will be the Big 66 East and those on the west side of the Mississippi will be the Big 66 West. The winner of each division will play each other for the national championship at a 500,000 seat stadium that will be built in the Bahamas using part of the TV revenue. Each of the 66 teams will be guaranteed 200 million per year in television money. So far none of the schools have figured out what they're going to do with all the extra money but one athletic director has said he has come up with the unique idea of giving some of the money to academics, but, another said he did not think that would pass a vote with the athletic directors and football coaches at their annual meeting in Greece where they have built a mega resort after paying off Greece's national debt. Another AD came up with the idea of buying the NFL and turning it into a farm club for the 66 AQ teams.

[The Historian]

I'm hearing that all 66 AQ teams are going to combine into one mega-conference. Those on the east side of the Mississippi River will be the Big 66 East and those on the west side of the Mississippi will be the Big 66 West. The winner of each division will play each other for the national championship at a 500,000 seat stadium that will be built in the Bahamas using part of the TV revenue. Each of the 66 teams will be guaranteed 200 million per year in television money. So far none of the schools have figured out what they're going to do with all the extra money but one athletic director has said he has come up with the unique idea of giving some of the money to academics, but, another said he did not think that would pass a vote with the athletic directors and football coaches at their annual meeting in Greece where they have built a mega resort after paying off Greece's national debt. Another AD came up with the idea of buying the NFL and turning it into a farm club for the 66 AQ teams.

Why give them any ideas?

[inudesu]

For a little perspective on how hard it is to see where things are going sometimes, check out this 1991 article from SI.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vau...40/1/index.htm

They must be having some second thoughts in State College about the wisdom of joining the Big Ten instead of waiting for the Big East.

Louisville coach Howard Schnellenberger disagrees [about Notre Dame being the only school that can make it as an indy]. He points out that if his team can sustain the success it enjoyed last season (10-1-1), it will have a strong chance every year of getting one of the three at-large berths in the new bowl alliance.

The age of the superconference is not far off.

Of these, the most vulnerable is the developing partnership between the Big Eight and the SWC, which are exploring what SWC commissioner Fred Jacoby calls "more of an alliance than a merger."